Can China invade Taiwan within a year?

I think you might have missed the reason for the drop in population then.

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Well you did say “submission” so I ruled out the “nuke Taiwan” option.

Perhaps I missed others you had in mind.


I just keep reminding people that if China attacks Taiwan FoR rEaLz, the whole world will be fundamentally changed and we’ll be living much like people did during WWII — rations, limited supplies of anything available, and, of course, no imports from China, so like virtually no medications and approximately 99% of the worthless shit we like to buy, now unavailable. It’s not Ukraine where Americans buy a bunch of yellow and blue flag stuff and complain about high gas prices while going about life as usual. China attacking Taiwan will make the pandemic supply chain break down seem like no problem at all. In other words, it’s not me y’all should worry about…


The subsequent genocide of people for their ideology. IE: Green supporters.

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Note to self: start deleting forumosa posting history ASAP.



Genocide did not happen and is still not happening in Hong Kong, and it will surely not happen in Taiwan. The PRC is very much interested in winning hearts and minds in both places, while also being seen as an alternative hegemon to the U.S.

That kind of barbaric behavior would completely ruin their image internationally, and foment way too much internal resistance in places where there already is a sizable amount of the public ambivalent to them.

China wantonly genociding rank-and-file green party in Taiwan comes across as fearmongering, Falun-Gong propaganda. Bombastic and not consistent with their past actions.

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I didn’t say Taiwan has the military power either lol. They would literally surrender within two days.

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As if they care about their image with the current triple genocides they have been committing.


I think it’s so funny because the chances of American civil war are currently higher than China invading Taiwan. I truly believe at this time we are safer in Taiwan.

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Taiwan being occupied/invaded will not be even close to the same situation as the terrible one in Xinjang. I would take what a cult says (who’s leader literally believes people can levitate) with a massive grain of salt. Still waiting for that three gorges dam to buckle like it was supposed to…among other ridiculous pieces of $$$-fueled propaganda that have done more to damage any anti-CCP narratives than help them.

They jail anyone that dares speak against them. I think it’s easy to forget the genocide of Han people that disagree.

I admittedly don’t know the extent of people who have been killed by the Chinese government for disagreeing. I am by no means advocating for the government here.

I am just saying that floating the idea of ~60% of the population being killed here if /when China comes is over-the-top ridiculous and misleading. Lol, I have friends in Hong Kong that post all sorts of anti-gov memes and sentiments on their IG and they are fine. Not even a Great Firewall there…yet at least.

But your name is deepshelter. Care to share the best bunker around Taipei, preferably one that serves Starbucks coffee?


It’s a lot different when people grow up in that situation.

To immediately pull down the curtain on a population that largely hates you will be chaotic.

The only people who will survive :joy:


I just want everyone to get along, and for those in power, both sides, not to get too greedy and set off WWIII. Too optimistic, naive even? Sure.

The people at greatest risk of loss here will be the Taiwanese if things go absolutely FUBAR, as most don’t have anywhere to evacuate to unlike us foreigners who will most likely have the forewarning and privilege to jet back to our original countries if we so desire to. I think it is too easy to forget that.


You can’t get along with hostage takers. They’re not interested in compromise. Their version of peace is 100% complete submission and for you to be useful to them. Loyalty isn’t even enough.

You’re talking about a regime that can get YOU convicted if any of your family or friends do something wrong.

China will run this place like a sweatshop, and if you don’t perform, you get fired…from life.

Minus winning the war, Taiwanese will lose with submission just as badly as losing the war.

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Where does your golden chariot lead to?

There won’t be enough planes to get everyone holding a foreign passport out of Taiwan. This isn’t the Covid panic in China.

Like Ukraine, the writing will probably be on the wall for a while before anything actually happens - there was a pretty sizable window for which people - if they had the means and wanted to - could leave Ukraine.

I certainly see where you are coming from, but how you can so confidently lay out what will happen does confound me. The PRC’s thirst for power does seem unquenchable as of late. Will they go so far as to kill run-of-the-mill civilians here if they invade? I think we should respect their intelligence and long-term strategy more than that.

Not only have the Russians been doing that right now…

But the Chinese are very good at doing things systematically. Will it be fast? Maybe, maybe not.

But they know they are occupying an island of 23 million counterrevolutionaries.