Can China invade Taiwan within a year?

Just a sudden thought I had: is it possible that Mexico didn’t take all the jobs because there’s insufficient stability? The US-Mexico border on the Mexico side is one of the most dangerous places in the world, kudos to cartels. I’m wondering if China was more successful because they have one government and one party controlling everyone and thing that goes on in the country, while Mexico is full of guns that made it south from the good ol’ US of A and therefore insufficiently stable when it comes to running productive factories?

I wonder how close Chinese warships can get to Taiwan before something bad happens? Will they be inching their way ever closer to the Taiwan shoreline to “test the waters” so to speak in the future? At one point Taiwan has to snap back, but clearly nobody on this side really wants to fire shots, cause that will definitely start a war. I’d love to know how the Taiwan military is told to react to Chinese approaches.

They should moon them. Or better yet, drape their ships in Winnie the Pooh banners.

2 Likes

Simulation of an all out preemptive attack on Kaneda USAF base in Okinawa.

1 Like

What are the findings of this simulation?

Guy

Most likely made in China…

1 Like

Seems to go without saying that if the Chinese launched enough missiles in a sneak attack they could effectively put it out of commission for the immediate future

A direct attack on US military forces?

That might put the leadership of China out of commission for the immediate future!

Guy

That’s the premise behind the simulation. But yeah, they’d have to take out Guam and US forces in other close areas of Japan and Korea thus triggering all sorts of defense treaties while also taking Taiwan. Even if they could take and hold Taiwan, the direct sneak attack on US forces in Okinawa and elsewhere would not go down well with the American public. Then we can start worring about who will feel the need to use nukes first.

Is China ready to start that shit? I’m not convinced they are.

I made it about 8 minutes in to the video and got bored

1 Like

random scenarios with randos running without real data might be interesting to some, but totally useless for real discussions? :wink:

1 Like

Both sides could claim a win. This Chanel also did a simulation of an attack on the Recent USA official who visited. That was a decisive win to China.

I suspect that the USA will move a squadron of F22s to South Korea or Japan if they don’t already have them there.

There will also be at least one aircraft carrier patrolling east of Japan and Taiwan for the foreseeable future.

I expect to see European nations sending their navy through the area on freedom of navigation voyages as well at a more frequent rate. This is to press China even more. China will Likely respond by sinking a few fishing vessels as they have done to South Korea and Japan in the recent decade.

I believe the over reaction of China in this matter has weakened them. This is a dangerous situation for China. But I don’t believe that China will have the resolve to respond with its military. They will unleash an economic war. If they see the economic war going in their favor we could possibly see them strike.

1 Like

There is an engineering battalion stationed in Okinawa for this exact Possibility. They are capable of building an entire runway in hours. China would need to effectively sink the island.

1 Like

This is true. They are not scientific, But they still show how dangerous china is.

The computer controlled F15s quickly thinned out most Chinese fighters. The handful of human controlled F35s were able to take out one J-20 Mighty Dragon, and one Chinese AEW&C plane. However, there were also plenty of friendly fire. The remaining J-20 stealth fighters took out all the American F15s. Although, they were forced to return due to running low on fuel. There were over 45 missiles targeting Kaneda airbase, and most were intercepted by the F35, F15, and patriot missiles. However, 16 still managed to get through the defenses and hit the airbase. All this happened before the F16s flying from mainland Japan could reach the battle.

The damage to the airbase probably could be repaired in a short time for take off and landings again. However, both sides lost plenty of pilots. It would then depend on if China is able to launch another round of missile attacks with the same amount of fighter cover. If they could, then USAF in Okinawa could probably do very little about it.

There are several realistic issues. First, the game was suffering from a bug and couldn’t get long range air-to-air missiles to work. If those were available, the USAF would probably have more of an advantage. Second, if there were US carriers around, things probably would have turned out better. Third, Taiwan probably would detect those planes and missiles flying by, and could and should join the fight and intercept them in the middle.

4 Likes

Because randos like us don’t have access or the clearance to get our eyes on real data, let alone simulations based on real data? Nothing wrong with getting some insights using educated guesses.

1 Like

They’ve already blocked them from proceeding.

Who blocked who?

1 Like

The US armed forces better recruit this man fast.

2 Likes

Or, wait for these guys to start working, and bomb it again

1 Like

Just thought I should put this out here…

“The psychic fault lines of masculinity and male selfhood express two developmental and fantasy components: first, maleness as not-female, the male self as defensively separate from the warding off the other, defensively needing to split self from other if hatred takes over; second, maleness as an adult man rather than boy-child, not humiliated, shamed, or defeated by another man. When these components are challenged, individually or in cultural or political experience, men react with violence. We cannot explain terrorism, religious or ethnic hatred, extreme violence, expressions of misogyny, or the creating of enemies by assuming that external factors -history, politics, or society – simply cause these individual and social processes” (N.J. Chodorow, 2012).