I’m not saying you’re wrong, but could you explain that logic? He might indeed be waiting for better conditions, better equipped and trained military, etc.
Maybe this?
This seems the more likely of the two. If the calculus develops to a point where the CCP can get away with it, they’ll probably do it. But they aren’t there yet. But they’re working on it.
Barring unforeseen developments (lol, like invasion?), I still think we are good until the next election
my opinion is that the
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United States and allies are way too busy helping Ukraine to give Taiwan a chance. Billions of aid going into Ukraine, ammo, weapons, etc helping Ukraine repel the orc invasion.
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Chinas demographics are upside down, and getting worse, the one child policy has created a major problem for China and it’s only going to get worse. The one child policy also created a lot of child emperors, spoiled kids, their parents wouldn’t be too happy with war, and it would create even more issues for China if their death toll gets to the levels of Russia.
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Taiwan is now getting a chance to seriously look at their defense, revamp and reshape their military based on what is happening in Ukraine, China gets a chance too, but it’s mostly in Taiwan’s benefit.
I just don’t see it happening. China and Taiwan will make a deal before anything happens. The elite of Taiwan and elite of china do not want it.
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Yeah if we get a Ma Ying-jeou protege in the President’s Office, this is possible.
The KMT however are apparently doing everything they can now to ensure they don’t get back into the President’s Office. Their party approval now is shocking, and look at the direction it is heading (results from June 2022):
Source: Not much change? | Frozen Garlic
Guy
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Biden is pretty clear in this interview.
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Dunno what they cut out there.
EDIT
Found the full video
starts just short of the 10:00 mark, with their ignorance. Nothing really in addition to the short clip
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Rich data.
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This reflects my thinking based on my reading as well, but skimming through the names I see some of them are the people writing the things that I’m reading! Anyways, good share
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the last 10 posts or so are so god damned depressing for so many reasons 
I will pretend to pray if some country of power signs actual useful paperwork defending Taiwan against the new nazis. i swear to god…
Not everyone is impressed (if this is the same survey!):
https://twitter.com/JMichaelCole1/status/1572004242474536964
Guy
I sent a lot of emails to universities and government offices when i was looking for a job here. Guess how many responses I got.
So just because they aren’t on the list doesnt mean they weren’t asked!
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I think J Michael Cole is implying they should have asked him. 
Guy
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Shirley Lin is naturalized Taiwanese.
I remember this.
This strategic meta-ambiguity isn’t new.
Or as the Biden of 2001 wrote: “We now appear to have a policy of ambiguous strategic ambiguity. It is not an improvement.
If it is not going to deter China any longer, then I don’t see the point of continuing to be ambiguous.
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US public opinion makes foreign policies, ultimately. Scholars and interlocutors often think they can dictate US policies to make their job easier. Words like “strategic ambiguity” is clearly a scholarly term and not an US government’s term.
Except that a quick google will reveal hundreds of uses of the term “strategic ambiguity” by US government officials in the last few years- thousands, going back to Carter.
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Disagree. See also: Vietnam, the length of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc
Public opinion decides who gets elected, after that the govt does what they want
Congress typically has like a 5% approval rating…
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Politicians usually say a lot of things until they get in office and then realize drastic changes in decisions are much harder. Not protecting Taiwan because of public opinion, where most people don’t know where Taiwan is and why it’s important, would be a strategic mistake.
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