Can China rise peacefully?

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

This speech was given back in 2012.

Mearsheimer insisted China will become a regional hegemon, but he also identified three things that may hinder China from conquering anyone else. In other words, ways in which he may be wrong:

  1. Economic Interdependence
  2. Nukes
  3. Nationalism

Come to think of it, maybe that is why Russia only took the Russian-speaking part of Ukraine, and not the whole of Ukraine.

Maybe if we can fan the flames of nationalism in Taiwan, China will only take 新北.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXov7MkgPB4

2

China will only rise peacefully if it can continue to grow economically while maintaining its internal stability.

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  1. Idiots that rule China.
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4

If it doesn’t grow anymore, it can’t match the US’s military might.

5

they might not have to if the US can be easily manipulated.

6

Let’s hope and pray for idiocy.

7

I don’t see any evidence the US doesn’t know what it’s doing. Only scenario I see is if it gets bogged down in the Middle East. We took Japan out while we’re finding somebody else.

8

China (along with other parts of the world) is expected to encounter economic difficulties (a recession at the very least) in the next year or so. After ten years, the aging population will add to its woes, and complicate any plans involving military adventurism, since these resources will likely be needed at home. Right now, Russia and China are allies, but if China looks like it’s becoming powerful enough to threaten Russia, that alliance will break apart. So “rise” presumes a lot.

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Or they can get militaristic to detract from domestic problems.

10

They could, but you need large numbers of young men to do it. And those young men will likely be needed back home. Also, the war should be with a non-nuclear country that shares a land border with China.

11

I don’t think so if we look at history.

And we keep mentioning peace is possible only if the economy is fine, i don’t think so.

Even if China’s economy doesn’t slow I think they would pose a even greater threat to peace. The military spending will continue. They will take on proxy wars probably before they get into anything big. But you can’t just spread your sphere of influence without stepping on another’s sphere of influence. And that country is the USA who does not fuck around in war and respond well to threats on their sphere of influence.

Any peaceful rise won’t fall fully on China. It’s how the current superpower will respond. And right now that super power is the US. So I don’t think so.

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12

Mearsheimer said a great power can only be a regional hegemon, not a global one. And since Asia is China’s territory, it’s very difficult for the U. S. to compete.

I mean, look at what we’ve tried in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Unless it’s a boarder country, China’s not in that much of a better position than the US.

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They have the power to conquer most of the world for a year or two, but not the power to hold on to it.

In the process, there will be a lot of fallout. The literal kind.

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They’ll start with Taiwan, then Okinawa.