Can earthquakes be predicted?

I predict there is going to be a perceptible earthquake in Taiwan within the next 5 days. Reason: Rats appeared in rooftop apartment.

I failed with my last dog-based prediction. Just having another go.

You might be on to something. When I got off the bus tonight I noticed the balance on my Easy Card was 921. :astonished:

i predict there will be an earthquake with the coming of the next full moon/high tide cycle.

I was reading the other day that the Hsyni area where the 101 building is would be subject to the most devastating earthquake effects in the Taipei Basin. The reason being it is built on silt. It forms a barrier to the waves as they flow through the ground causing the waves to essentially break in that region. Lack of uniformity in the breaking waves causes the most destruction.

Or we could have liquifraction. This is worse and is common in silt regions/loosely compacted regions.

Along with the silt underneath the 101 area, the depleted aquafer underneath parts of Shrlin and all of Tienmou make that area very hazardous in the event of a large magnitude quake.

Someone better tell Mr. Donut.

A recent national geographic had a whole article on predicting earthquakes…but all it really said was that if you study recent earthquake activities, you can obtain an idea of the general area that has the highest probablity of an earthquake within a given time. It has to do with the stress released along the fault-lines of tetonic plates during an earthquake, and where more stress has been likely to build up on that fault-line after said earthquake. So, basically the best prediction they can get now is something like (only an example) “Well, given the last earthquake, we can tell you that theres a 60% chance of a major earthquake somewhere in Northern Taiwan in the next 2 years, as opposed to a normal 20% chance” or some shit.

Looks like Juba’s prediction worked this time! One point for Juba.

Juba, next time you smell a rat, let us know. :slight_smile:

Do you believe there are earthquake seasons? Fall and Spring seem to bring more earthquakes than the summer or winter months.

Way to predict 'em Juba.

I think the rat-o-meter is a good way of predicting.

About ten minutes before last night’s quake, my wife came upstaors to tell me that there we lots of mice on the street outside or front door, squeaking away. We rarely see or hear mice out there.

Ten minutes later, we knew why.

From this and other stuff I’ve heard, it seems pretty certain that some animals have a sensitivity that allows them to know when quakes are coming, perhaps even a matter of days in advance for big quakes. So, I’m sure that sometimes scientists will be able to harness this to predict quakes.


Just moments before the quake, my dog yawned and licked his chops. Coincidence? I think not.

My cat ran up to me and attacked me last night, ears flat, huge pupils, fur standing on end, huffing…what he does only when he’s absolutely freaked out, attacking stupid little fluffy white dogs with names like “Cookie”, or has just had his tail stepped on (only once, I swear). Two hours later the earthquake hit. Unsuprisingly, he had the same reaction once it started. I’ve got the marks on my hand to prove it.

Note to self, the next time he freaks out before an earthquake, I will not attempt to pet him until after it happens…and definitely not while it’s happening.

What the HELL is that all about? One of mine (neutered tom) does the same thing, usually when he’s stressed about something. I always thought it was just hairballs, but now I’m not so sure.

I think there is going to be another noticable quake in the next 5 days.

we’ve got ants motoring through our bedroom right now … not happened in the 2 plus years we’ve lived here. i’ve heard ants can be a predictor of quakes.

btw, yes, i had licked up all the chocolate syrup long before they showed up, and no, there is no other food in the room. :stuck_out_tongue:

Prediction or not! This place is woefully unprepared for a big earthquake. In Japan and California they do prepare and most people know what to do. In Taiwan ah, eh ,oh well. The alleys ohhh, the older buildings ehh!

fret not. people in taiwan know exactly what to do in case of a big quake: go back to bed.

Sorry I didn’t predict the tremor that just happened. Probably because I killed all the rats. :frowning:

General earthquake thread - current page is here.

Don’t worry about it Juba, my prediction from yesterday managed to come true. Who will try their predictive powers next?