Can the Kuomintang Return to Power in Taiwan? by Camphor honcho, Flob legend

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No they can’t, the voting age is getting lowered to 18 while kmt supporters are dying. Ko’s party looks to be attracting the wealthy intellectual and business blues and will take a chunk of KMT vote.

The KMT’s trump card was the 92 consensus but it’s meaningless in a world where China has become an increasingly aggressive and scary totalitarian force. It was useful in the time of opening up but is now a burden for them.

Cross Strait relations are getting scary and the KMT are wildly believed to be at the upper tiers to be selling the country out. There is little that can be done to change the perception at this point

Nothing the KMT can or will do will win them supporters under 40 from now on and the best they can hope for is that they can carry on as the second biggest party. They are an afterthought in history.

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Hou Youyi is really popular and we’ll liked though. He would be their only slight slight hope as leader by grace of clearly being a decent enough man. But the KMT are idiots and will probably run with another populist rabble riser to titillate the Han Fans . I think the genie is out of the bottle with that stuff and the KMT need to court the old lunatics.

Also the KMT has no chance because they need to always appease their core, which Is the ex military and civil servants and especially the old soldiers. What this group care about (like their pensions) is distant from that of the rest of society and a lot of them are vehemently pro China

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Although I agree with your points on the KMT, I feel that in a two party system, the KMT will very likely be elected again in the future. Populations can only put up with one party in power for so long until the grass starts to look greener on the other side. Perhaps a smaller party could take the place of the KMT, but that is something that will take a long time to happen.

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@meishijia You are viewing Taiwan as a normal democratic system when it is more like Israel. KMT isn’t a normal political party, it’s linked to an identity and world view that is increasingly out of whack with Taiwan. It’s also connected to China, which for decades people still had fond enough feelings towards and say as a business opportunity. This isn’t China in 2020 and the whole world is gravitating away from then and decoupling.

The grass is greener would be true in a normal two party system , but not here. I see Ko’s party overtaking the kmt in a decade, especially if they bring in the right names.

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I hope the rapid decline of the KMT gives other smaller parties a chance to gain momentum. I’m very green and my entire family is, but I don’t think a single dominant party is good in the long run.

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My uncle was joking with me about how everyone was KMT back then because they recruited at schools and told you how awesome it was. Not that there was really much choices. And they basically told you that joining will make your conscription easier with benefits.

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I agree on this.

KMT supporters spend all day complaining how stupid and brainwashed young people are in Taiwan. There is literally 0 reason any young person would join the KMT in Taiwan today outside of being from a blue family.

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An awesome way to persuade young people. The charm offensive continues! : D

Guy

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The issue is with the FPTP system used for Taiwan’s single-constituency Presidential election. As long as they continue to use FPTP, then it won’t change because of the spoiler effect. Taiwan needs IRV or Approval Voting for its presidential elections to ensure that smaller parties don’t inadvertently hurt other parties they agree with and help parties they fundamentally disagree with.

The NPP caused a green loss in Danshui by running and gave it to the blues, despite most people in the Danshui riding voting for green-candidates.

Same with Chen Shui Bian. Most people voted for blue-candidates but their split votes gave it to the greens in 2000s

For Parliament, I am in favour of MMP.

I wish KMT could just be disbanded and its members imprisoned, lol.

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Unfortunately, we can’t do that because it would make us no better than China.

I agree with that and I’m surprised to read you’re so green. I thought of you and/or your family as blue, just not deep blue.

No. Many democracies ban political parties.

They ban hate parties. There is nothing illegal about advocating for or against unification with another country.

Some of them do need to be in prison though. There are active criminals in the party who are involved in treasonous acts and are receiving benefits from the CCP. I dont think arresting those people make Taiwan as bad as China

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Should these people be in prison because they are corrupt and committing crimes or because they are KMT members? Should corrupt DPP members not be in prison?

I don’t think it needs to be said that those who commit crimes should be punished.

The single party thing is a problem in Taiwan though. The DPP have carte blanche to do what they want for the foreseeable future . I think this will be until:

a) Ko’s People party finds its platform and actually makes gains
b) A coalition between the smaller green parties like the NPP and Statebuilding Party creates a viable left.

But I dont see any of that for a decade.

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