taiwan newspapers notwithstanding …
at 4-1, taiwan could have lost both games, and had germany win both to equal them at 4-3. taiwan had already beaten germany in their H2H game (2-0), which gave them the first tie-breaker (the most likely source of confusion).
had germany won both games, including over the canucks, germany would have gone through with korea and taipei. that’s just the way the tie-breaker system in this tourney works, no matter what the local rags say …
Nope. You forgot about Canada in this scenario.
If Germany had won both of its final games, Canada lost both, and Taiwan lost both, it would have been Korea in 1st place getting in, and a 3 way tie for 2nd between Germany, Canada, and Taiwan. In that scenario, Germany beat Canada and lost to Taiwan, Canada beat Taiwan and lost to Germany, Taiwan beat Germany and lost to Canada. Head-to-head results are a wash, so it would have come down to the next tie-breaker scenario, and without knowing the scores of those games, it still could have been Taiwan on the outs. That’s where the slim chance lay. The local media outlets and those Taiwan commentators were not all mistaken, sorry to say.
If you won’t take the local papers’ word for it, then this is from the International Baseball Federation.
[quote]TAICHUNG, Chinese Taipei – Canada and Chinese Taipei entered play Thursday night at the IBAF Final Olympic Qualifying Tournament faced with one very clear motivating factor: win, and you’re in.
With both teams sitting at 4-1, a victory would keep them two games up on the #4 team in the standings, and most importantly, in line to qualify for the baseball competition at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games.
For Canada, the win-and-in mantra sounded simple enough. Simple, of course, unless you’re facing a Korean team that has been soundly beating opponents en route to its perfect 5-0 record and already-secure spot in Beijing (following its blowout of Germany on Wednesday). In the end, despite Korea’s furious comeback in the bottom of the ninth – it ultimately stranded the tying run after opening the inning down three – Canada was indeed up to the task, knocking off the Asian side, 4-3, and thus qualifying for Beijing.
An hour away at Douliou Stadium, host country Chinese Taipei took the field against tournament cellar-dweller South Africa under the same, albeit on paper much more manageable, circumstances. Although the South Africans put up a fight – hanging tough with the heavily-favored Taipei team for much of the game – it failed for the fourth time in six games to put a run on the board, eventually losing 4-0. [/quote]
It would have required a disaster of epic proportions on several fronts for Taiwan to not get in, but I’m just pointing out that they did not clinch after the win Wed over Australia, as you suggested. It required Thur’s games to be played before victory was assured.
i believe that i stand corrected. the games yesterday were necessary to ensure that they both went through. looking too far too fast, it seems.