Chances of a DPP win 2016

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

Hey all. I’m still in somewhat of a nutshell over the Ma (A-Jeou) Wang case. But I do know that A-Jeou’s approval rating is now down to 9 or 11%.

But anyway since A-Jeou became President, there’s a few things I noticed over the years.

First term in office. Before 2008, A-Jeou did the following:

  1. He promised that he would challenge china on human rights issues. It would also include seeking a political pardon for certain Tiananmen square activists. He also said that human rights dialogues would be at the most important priority.
  2. During the 2007 UN for Taiwan protests led by Chen Sui Bian, A-Jeou led a UN protest as well. But his protest was to join the UN under the name Republic of China.
  3. A-Jeou said that he’d do everything to make Taiwan economically prosperous in ways he said the DPP wasn’t.
  4. He said that peace talks and a formal peace treaty can only take place only if China removes the missiles aiming at Taiwan.

After the 2008 elections:

  1. A-Jeou completely ignored the human rights issues. Instead it went to meetings with ARATS chairman and he didn’t once open a live publicized dialogue challenging him on human rights issues. Ma could’ve addressed him onTiananmen square activists who were jailed since the 1989 crackdown, but after becomming president he didn’t say anything about it. He could’ve started addressing the falun gong issue, issues on Tibet, issues on Cina’s domestic abuses in general such as illegal land seizures and demolitions. And he didn’t. All it was were economic meetings and ECFA negotiations. The public knows well why A-Jeou didn’t propose the ECFA deal before the 2008 elections.
    2.After A-Jeou took office in 2008, he didn’t start going for UN membership at all. In 2007 he argued for UN membership under the name ROC. What Ma should’ve done was argue as early as 2007 he will not pursue full UN membership. But only meaningful participation such as that Aviation agency of the UN or whatever it was. He should’ve made all that clear to the people in 2007. A-Jeou also didn’t tell the people until after 2008 that his WHO observer status bid would be negotiated with China.
  2. After becoming president, the economy actually did worse under Ma’s administration. So many economic assets like factories and all that were being moved from Taiwan to China. The ECFA benefits china way more than Taiwan. Another reason why Ma did not mention anything about the ECFA proposal in early 2007. He knew the DPP would challenge him in the presidential debates on it and decrease A-Jeou’s chances of winning.
  3. After 2008, WikiLeaks shed light on the fact that the original proposal that China must remove all missiles and threats and renouce the use of force against Taiwan before formal peace talks can take place, well… according to WikiLeaks that is no longer a requirement. Hmmm. Why did A-Jeou change that standard so suddenly?

No wonder Ma’s approval rating is so low. I don’t see how he won a second term.

After 2012

  1. Ma proposed this one country, two areas proposal. And it was right after he won his second term. Hmmm. It’s obvious why A-Jeou didn’t say anything about the proposal in…let’s say… the third week of December 2011. If Ma went pubic with that proposal in December 2011, then during the Presidential debates in 2012 Tsai would tear Ma apart with that. And we know that the one country, two areas proposal couldn’t be made before the 2012 elections because Ma knew he’d lose.
  2. Media sales. Certain medias were being bought out be Hong Kong business men with close ties to China. Ma said before 2008 he would do everyhing possible to protect freedom of the press. And Ma did nothing about it.
  3. Many Taiwan Universities now lower their flags when chinese students come. Or when officials from china come at all, they lower the ROC flags in the areas they go to. And that was done even during Ma’s first term in office.
  4. And the more recent Ma Wang case, whidch I’m still in a nutshell in.

But given all of A-Jeous historical mix ups and double standards, I know that he only won the 2012 elections because just before the elections Obama made a few public comments regarding Taiwan and their relations with China. And even congress said that those comments (whatever they were) is what manipulated the elections and gave Ma victory. Had the US remained totaly neutral, Tsai would’ve likely won.

Another observation I made is that in 2008 the election results were
A-Jeou: 58.45%
Frank Hsieh 41.55%
2012 elections:
A-Jeou: 51.60%
Tsai: 45.63%

In the last one, Ma didn’t get as many votes because of his screw ups in 2008. And DPP had bigger chances. Now in 2016, I wonder what the case could be? Snce Ma’s approval rating is at it’s lowest yet. The fact recently a Japanese person was banned from entering Taiwan for being pro Taiwan should also have a huge impact on Ma’s approval rating. It was under his administration this happened.

2

If Lai Tshing-Tə (賴清德) runs for 2016, DDP will win. Lai is the current Tainan mayor.

3

He seems very good, and almost too good to be true. My concern is what kind of scandal the KMT will whip up around him. That said, I would say that the current generation of DPP leadership is spent, and that they need to get fresh faces out in front.

But again, I think that you need either a KMT split or a shooting incident, or alternatively Lian Zhan running again, before any DPP candidate stands a chance.

4

[quote=“Mr He”]He seems very good, and almost too good to be true. My concern is what kind of scandal the KMT will whip up around him. That said, I would say that the current generation of DPP leadership is spent, and that they need to get fresh faces out in front.

But again, I think that you need either a KMT split or a shooting incident, or alternatively Lian Zhan running again, before any DPP candidate stands a chance.[/quote]

I don’t think the shooting affected anything. Reliable polls showed Chen leading at the end.

The last two election KMT won because of Ma’s personal charisma. With Ma gone, I see no one with that kind of pull in the KMT. Frankly the only who can give Lai a run for his money right now is Wang Tsing-phing.

5

Well, 2004 was the perfect election campaign and the polls had it too close to call. While I do not see the shooting as any more than a mere shooting, I think it got voters out that would otherwise have stayed at home. NOT THAT I HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THAT. Mind you, I was there back then, and I recall us all thinking that Lian Zhan/James Soong would win in the end, as the last polls before the blackout period pointed in that direction.

As some blue tencenter posted somewhere, it’s a big deal, the KMT will trot someone else out, and thow a lot of glitzy marketing (along with the worst money politics/ vote buying/gangsterism on the local level they can buy).

6

Tell me more about Lai Ching-te (who Taipei Times refers to as William Lai). I don’t know him at all.

If the KMT puts forth Hau Lung-bin, they will have a tough fight. In fact, they don’t really have anyone right now with “winner” written all over them. Wu Den-yih would be a bad move, as would Jiang Yi-huah, because anyone associated with the Ma administration would turn voters off (the mistake the DPP made when fronting Frank Hsieh). The default choice would likely be Eric Chu for his image of a clean, hard-working administration (much like Ma’s pre-2008).

Chen Chu would be a great DPP candidate but I don’t think she’d have a realistic chance of winning.

7

Don’t think so. In uncertain economic times people go for the certain, and unfortunately the bad they know seems safe.

Plus the China/industrial complex/financial triangle. They won’t let these riches go. Even if DPP wins, it will be toothless. The system is set like that.

People will vote with fear. That is a given. The status quo will be maintained regardless of who is in power. There is a line in the sand Taiwanese know they can’t cross or else. And with such economic powerlessness, the direction is obvious.

8

I think the election will be attempted to be bought by the KMT, alternatively with the CCP pushing on. A lot has changed, and I think that the DPP lost the last chance of turning back the clock in 2012.

9

[quote=“Hokwongwei”]Tell me more about Lai Ching-te (who Taipei Times refers to as William Lai). I don’t know him at all.

If the KMT puts forth Hau Lung-bin, they will have a tough fight. In fact, they don’t really have anyone right now with “winner” written all over them. Wu Den-yih would be a bad move, as would Jiang Yi-huah, because anyone associated with the Ma administration would turn voters off (the mistake the DPP made when fronting Frank Hsieh). The default choice would likely be Eric Chu for his image of a clean, hard-working administration (much like Ma’s pre-2008).

Chen Chu would be a great DPP candidate but I don’t think she’d have a realistic chance of winning.[/quote]

Met Eric Chu personally at a baseball revival meeting, not impressed. Typical politician, doesn’t really give a frak, just come to a meeting, make a speech, pretend he’s there but actually doing his own things. When discussion was over, he makes another prepared speech and leaves. His Taoyuan work was mostly construction based, he cashed in on the baseball craze, but while doing so built an ass of a stadium (the ballpark orientation was changed to face west at his request). I get the sense that he doesn’t give a rats ass about baseball, it was just a political move he made, and got stuck with the reputation. He accomplished what he did in Taoyuan because Ma was the president and he got a lot of funding. As a New Taipei mayor he did squat.

Lai on the other hand is a medical doctor. He is actually originally from Taipei county. He’s an NTU/NCKU/Harvard graduate. He started his political career when he represented medical professionals in the support of Tsshen Ting-nan 陳定南 in the 1994 provincial election. He has a reputation of helping/standing up for the little guys. In 2004, as a legislator, he once advised drivers to not drive in the wrong direction in a one way lane in Tainan and was severely beaten with baseball bats. On multiple occasions Lai encountered people with medical distress while he is on the road and provided medical assistance. But most importantly, Lai is known for being an upright politician, well spoken, and a great approach and vision to upgrading Tainan while preserving its rich historical heritage.

10

[quote=“hansioux”][quote=“Hokwongwei”]Tell me more about Lai Ching-te (who Taipei Times refers to as William Lai). I don’t know him at all.

If the KMT puts forth Hau Lung-bin, they will have a tough fight. In fact, they don’t really have anyone right now with “winner” written all over them. Wu Den-yih would be a bad move, as would Jiang Yi-huah, because anyone associated with the Ma administration would turn voters off (the mistake the DPP made when fronting Frank Hsieh). The default choice would likely be Eric Chu for his image of a clean, hard-working administration (much like Ma’s pre-2008).

Chen Chu would be a great DPP candidate but I don’t think she’d have a realistic chance of winning.[/quote]

Met Eric Chu personally at a baseball revival meeting, not impressed. Typical politician, doesn’t really give a frak, just come to a meeting, make a speech, pretend he’s there but actually doing his own things. When discussion was over, he makes another prepared speech and leaves. His Taoyuan work was mostly construction based, he cashed in on the baseball craze, but while doing so built an ass of a stadium (the ballpark orientation was changed to face west at his request). I get the sense that he doesn’t give a rats ass about baseball, it was just a political move he made, and got stuck with the reputation. He accomplished what he did in Taoyuan because Ma was the president and he got a lot of funding. As a New Taipei mayor he did squat.

Lai on the other hand is a medical doctor. He is actually originally from Taipei county. He’s an NTU/NCKU/Harvard graduate. He started his political career when he represented medical professionals in the support of Tsshen Ting-nan 陳定南 in the 1994 provincial election. He has a reputation of helping/standing up for the little guys. In 2004, as a legislator, he once advised drivers to not drive in the wrong direction in a one way lane in Tainan and was severely beaten with baseball bats. On multiple occasions Lai encountered people with medical distress while he is on the road and provided medical assistance. But most importantly, Lai is known for being an upright politician, well spoken, and a great approach and vision to upgrading Tainan while preserving its rich historical heritage.[/quote]

You’re a DPP supporter, right? So of course you’re going to think that Lai is great and Chu terrible. But why mention that Lai is a medical doctor? What’s that got to do with it? Why not also mention that Chu has a Master’s in finance and PhD in accounting from NYU where he also taught as an assistant professor?

Truth is, they’re both politicians and both will have their respective political interests to serve. Those interests will be prioritized before the interests of the general public regardless of who is in power.

11

[quote=“Hokwongwei”]Tell me more about Lai Ching-te (who Taipei Times refers to as William Lai). I don’t know him at all.
[/quote]
That’s Lei’s problem. Not many people feel they know him well, or say, there is no halo above his head. He has good personal merits and outstanding administrative performance. He is like Gary Locke, a likable strong mayor but hum … not good enough for presidency.

That perception is common among pan greeners. Why? You have to have done some self-sacrifice to earn the trust of green camp. Lai, as well as Su and Xie, have that mental obstacle to overcome. Tsai YW, despite her shortcomings in experience and charisma, is still the DPP-favorite for presidential election mainly because she took the responsibility of leading DPP when it seemed to have no tomorrow in 2008.

If Lai wants to run for the president in 2016, though I doubt he is interested, he should not try to become a better mayor (he is good enough for that); instead he should try to get himself brutally wounded on the street protesting or unfairly tried and imprisoned by ROC court. Bottom line, being a lot more confrontational is good for him.

12

Would being a good campaigner not do? If I were him, I would start my campaign now.

All he has to do is to appear as a cleanish alternative, untainted by the preceived corruption of the CSB years, and the real corruption of mr horse.

13

Lai is currently being criticized for land expropriation in Tainan. That could hurt him if people think he is no better than the KMT on land issues.

I would think Tsai Ying-wen is still the best candidate.

The only way the DPP will win is if lots of young people can be convinced to vote, and lots of older blues sit out. I know at least one old lifetime blue voter who has already declared she won’t vote next election. Anyone else hearing this sort of thing?

14

Yes, among people around me. They suddenly suffer a specific form of amnesia - they don’t remember they have voted Ma but I know they did.

15

I am trying to analyze 2014 and 2016 elections in a broader context.

What type of leader does KMT choose? What is the common leadership style among their chairmen (if not counting the outlier old Chiang), Little Chiang, Li DH, LIen C, Wu BX, and Ma YJ? I think they are all very good power base coordinator and integrator. Very good at creating harmony within the party by fair distribution of power and money. For example, every one of them was not shy from doing deals with ‘the black and gold’. KMT is like the industry of Windows PCs. Windows is an ad hoc system and PCs are full of clones. They are prone to virus, but they are open to anyone who don’t mind getting their hands dirty.

In the past two weeks Ma suddenly tried to get rid of one major power base and the way he did it was so abnormally confrontational. I am not interested in his motives, rather in the impact on the coming elections. To be continued …

16

Just FYI. Tainan’s mayor, William Lai can be found on Wikipedia. Approval rating of 87% surely compares nicely with Mr. Mashang Hao!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lai

17

I don’t think relative obscurity is a bad thing. Not many people really knew who the heck Obama was, and it didn’t turn out too bad for him.

Tsai’s issue is the lack of personal charisma. Of course put her next to Chu they’d probably do about the same, but Lai seems like he could churn out more youth votes.

Yes, I’m a DPP supporter. But that isn’t the reason why I don’t think Chu is a great candidate. Many politicians were professors, including the current executive yuan minister Jiang, who doesn’t do anything similar to what he preaches at school. I mentioned Lai is a doctor because he still is a licensed doctor. Chu on the other hand isn’t currently a professor. As the New Taipei city major, his approval rating currently ranks 19th out of all mayors in Taiwan, only better than Hu Chih-Chiang (Taichung), Hao Long-bin (Taipei) and Zhang Tong-long (Keelug).

At the present juncture, I sometimes wonder if the whole Wang Tsing-phing incident is just a show to distance Ma from Wang. The end result is that Wang not appears to have nothing to do with Ma, yet he is still a member of KMT, and still the minister of Legislative Yuan. If Wang runs in 2016 he’d do a lot better than Chu.

18

Grr, stop this!!! :fume:

19

Grr, stop this!!! :fume:[/quote]

:stuck_out_tongue: won’t do it again until I’ve got it figured out

20

The DPP would be foolish to run Tsai again. She’s a fine candidate but it was already a stretch to put her up for the Presidential Office when she’d already lost one major election. Having lost two is not a very convincing record.

She could, however, make an excellent VP candidate.