[quote=“Hokwongwei”]The DPP would be foolish to run Tsai again. She’s a fine candidate but it was already a stretch to put her up for the Presidential Office when she’d already lost one major election. Having lost two is not a very convincing record.
She could, however, make an excellent VP candidate.[/quote]
Is she willing to do that? As far as I know, the DPP choose their candidates using a primary. If you are to win, you would need to convince the rank and file members and also make sure that you have a national power base, I would think that only Tsai and Su would be strong enough for that right now.
I think they should bow out in time, that might help the cause.
The last primary they ran was conducted over the phone with party members and asked a silly question: “Who is more likely to beat Ma in 2012: Tsai or Su?” That’s a surefire sign of desperation right there.
Both Su and Tsai are has-beens who couldn’t even win mayoral elections. Putting them up for the highest office would be a sad way for the DPP to shoot itself in the foot after Ma has given them a perfect opportunity to woo away disappointed voters. They can be used to a better purpose.
Tsai won 46% of the vote against an incumbent president with the media, business and China warning against a wrong vote. Up 4% from the 2008 election. Not bad at all and hardly a sign of her being a has-been.
As for the Taipei election, please. The KMT candidate would have to be caught with a dead girl or a live boy the night before the election for them to lose Taipei.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]The last primary they ran was conducted over the phone with party members and asked a silly question: “Who is more likely to beat Ma in 2012: Tsai or Su?” That’s a surefire sign of desperation right there.
Both Su and Tsai are has-beens who couldn’t even win mayoral elections. Putting them up for the highest office would be a sad way for the DPP to shoot itself in the foot after Ma has given them a perfect opportunity to woo away disappointed voters. They can be used to a better purpose.[/quote]
Ah, a recent arrival to Taiwan politics. Su is a proven winner in Pingtung and most importantly twice in New Taipei City. Whoever wins New Taipei City wins the election. Su put on a respectable showing in Taipei City. Plus looking at Taipei city is like trying to understand US presidential elections by results in Manhattan.
I’m not a newcomer, but thanks for implying that my hairline isn’t receding yet .
Su has nothing to do with New Taipei City. When he was magistrate of Taipei County, it was a different game as far as I understand because the administrative structure worked differently. That’s not to say he did a bad job – I honestly have no idea. However, that was 10 years ago, and voters have very short memories.
Replaying a repeat losing candidate means your party is out of ideas, out of talent, or both. Imagine if the Republicans field Romney again in 2016 after his failure last time. It would be a laughing stock. That despite him getting 47% of the vote.
It’s hip to say that Taipei doesn’t represent Taiwan, and of course it’s true in many ways. But at the same time, the greater Taipei area is home to about 7 million of Taiwan’s 23 million people, and it’s the commercial, political, and cultural (some room for debate here) capital of the country. If not Taipei, where?
As I recall, CSB served as Taipei Mayor once, and very nearly got reelected, so writing Taipei off as a deeply blue city that doesn’t represent Taiwan or where the KMT does nasty things to win sounds to me like looking for excuses.
As for all the people who say the KMT buys votes and cheats anyway, then I guess we might as well not hold any more elections because Taiwan is already as bad as Communist China, right?
Sorry Hok, but Chen won as Taipei mayor because of a split race. He won with 43.7% and was beaten by Ma 51-46% the next election despite having a high approval rating and Ma having no political experience other than acting briefly as Justice Minister. Ma won twice and so has Hau despite both with low approval ratings. It doesn’t matter much here and increasing less now than before as the city’ population ages and is eager to protect property values and low taxes.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]The DPP would be foolish to run Tsai again. She’s a fine candidate but it was already a stretch to put her up for the Presidential Office when she’d already lost one major election. Having lost two is not a very convincing record.
She could, however, make an excellent VP candidate.[/quote]
Tsai Ing-wen not only lacks charisma, but she has never been elected to any office in her entire life - and when she tried she failed. All prior government positions were appointed and not by the democratic mandate of the people.
A candidate who lacks campaign experience at the neighbourhood level will not be able to gain much support. Tsai’s campaign was bland. I sure did not like the shrill CSB or Hsieh campaigns with their chauvinist overtones (i.e. referring to Mainland wives as “Chinese bimbos” thieves who steal Taiwanese men), yet they hit the spot with the Taidu crowd, while Tsai is just cold and creepy. That attempt to make her seem cute and human (ciao ying) was an utter failure.
it is sad to see Taiwan Politics go the way of so many Countries. Seems the Charisma of Leaders matters more than their performance in Office. People don’t seem to have enough interest in Politics to find out what is in a Manifesto before voting, I fear. I suppose we all become immune to the lies and corruption when they don’t appear to affect us directly.
DPP would have a good chance if only they had a really charismatic person,with realistic alternatives to KMT policy in charge. Does such a person exist here?
Otherwise it will take a huge KMT scandal that incites the people for change IMO.
Last election the government forged documents to discredit Tsai. No one cared.[/quote]
Indeed a sad state of affairs,as the Rt. Honourable Gentleman states. Taiwanese voters should demonstrate against themselves for their indifference
They probably can’t be bothered
Bench-marked by Ma’s spotless ‘Big Yes vs Big No’ moral standard, Obama’s meddling is the most disgusting scandalous shameful evil pathetic bacterial viral behavior. Obama had the worst corrupt influence on the innocent cute clean angelic honest souls of millions of Taiwanese youth. However since Obama’s meddling was done out of sincere love and loyalty for ‘Ma the Spotless Chairman’ and had helped bringing down the even more worthless than the most worthless creature, Cabbage Tsai, ‘Ma the Spotless Chairman’ is willing pardon Obama’s mistake out of his generous and forgiving nature.
[quote=“hsinhai78”]Tsai Ing-wen not only lacks charisma, but she has never been elected to any office in her entire life - and when she tried she failed. All prior government positions were appointed and not by the democratic mandate of the people.
A candidate who lacks campaign experience at the neighbourhood level will not be able to gain much support. Tsai’s campaign was bland. I sure did not like the shrill CSB or Hsieh campaigns with their chauvinist overtones (i.e. referring to Mainland wives as “Chinese bimbos” thieves who steal Taiwanese men), yet they hit the spot with the Taiwan independence crowd, while Tsai is just cold and creepy. That attempt to make her seem cute and human (ciao ying) was an utter failure.[/quote]
I mostly agree with you, but I think Tsai does have a sort of charisma. She comes off as bookish and very smart, and she appeals to similarly minded people. That’s why I found it odd that she ran for New Taipei mayor when she would strike a better cord with the Taipei educated elites, and Su ran for Taipei mayor when he already had a repertoire with the people in New Taipei City (Taipei County) who had elected him once before. Sometimes I have no idea what this party is thinking.
[quote=“hsinhai78”][quote=“Hokwongwei”]The DPP would be foolish to run Tsai again. She’s a fine candidate but it was already a stretch to put her up for the Presidential Office when she’d already lost one major election. Having lost two is not a very convincing record.
She could, however, make an excellent VP candidate.[/quote]
Tsai Ing-wen not only lacks charisma, but she has never been elected to any office in her entire life - and when she tried she failed. All prior government positions were appointed and not by the democratic mandate of the people.
A candidate who lacks campaign experience at the neighbourhood level will not be able to gain much support. Tsai’s campaign was bland.
[/quote]
I agree with you about her poor electoral record, lack of charisma, and bland campaign. However, given the lack of credible KMT candidates, she would have a decent chance of winning if she ran again. I still think the DPP should nominate someone younger and more charismatic.
[quote]
I sure did not like the shrill CSB or Hsieh campaigns with their chauvinist overtones (i.e. referring to Mainland wives as “Chinese bimbos” thieves who steal Taiwanese men), yet they hit the spot with the Taiwan independence crowd, while Tsai is just cold and creepy.[/quote]
Please show me where CSB or Hsieh ever said that women from China were “bimbos” and thieves who steal Taiwanese men. Hsieh is not a favorite among people with strong view on independence because of his One China constitutionalism. He did suggest that Ma’s proposed opening to China would take jobs away from working class Taiwanese. That hasn’t happened yet at least directy, but Ma’s policies have hurt working people and it is a matter of time before significant numbers of Chinese are here working. The tourists are just a taste of what is to come.
[quote]
That attempt to make her seem cute and human (ciao ying) was an utter failure.[/quote]
I don’t think that is the case at all. Even blue supporters call her ‘xiaoying’ affectionately. She is seen by them as a good but misguided person.
I mostly agree with you, but I think Tsai does have a sort of charisma. She comes off as bookish and very smart, and she appeals to similarly minded people. That’s why I found it odd that she ran for New Taipei mayor when she would strike a better cord with the Taipei educated elites, and Su ran for Taipei mayor when he already had a repertoire with the people in New Taipei City (Taipei County) who had elected him once before. Sometimes I have no idea what this party is thinking.[/quote]
It made perfect political sense for her to run in New Taipei and for Su to run in Taipei. Both had to run because they were seeking the nomination and needed to show that they commanded support. It was a test run. Tsai chose Taipei County because she arguably had a chance of winning. Su ran in Taipei because if he had dome better there he would have gotten the nomination. They both did more poorly than expected and that was a harbinger of things to come in the presidential election.
Indeed, and this is a silly American thing which our American friends would do well to understand is not necessarily terribly important. Most democracies in fact do not have charismatic leaders and no one cares a whit.
And Hau Long Bin is mayor of Taipei. The guy looks like a high school gym teacher.
I think you’d better understand it if you want to understand Taiwan politics! Just take presidential elections (since the direct vote ) Li Deng Hui–charismatic, beats a split field. Chen–charismatic, beats dry as wood Lien Zhan and bombastic Soong in a split field, the Lien again. Ma–charismatic–beats Hsieh and then Tsai–not so much. I think people here respond to politicians on an emotional level, and this is definitely a factor.
That’s not at all what I meant. Yes, it made perfect sense for both of them to be candidates – but they may have done better if they had switched districts. I don’t see how New Taipei residents would identify with Tsai at all beyond her party colors, and the same goes for Su.
I think that’s true of many democracies, actually. Look at George W. vs. Al Gore. 2008 was an interesting one because McCain brought his own sort of charisma to the race.
So which competent DPP politicians at this stage have the charisma needed? Not too many… I’m still a big fan of Chen Chu, and everyone who mentioned Lai Ching-te has a pretty good point. Wang Jin-pyng would be a fantastic ace up the sleeve, I still believe.
However, if Hau becomes the KMT’s presidential candidate, and he might, he stands a high chance of becoming the next president, thus mooting the entire notion that it is charisma and not dense networking and good vote buying pillars that win elections.
Charisma may rally the masses, but I doubt it has much overall effect. Chen only won in 2000 because of a split vote; and he barely won in 2004 because of the power of incumbency and likely a tip from the shooting.
Lee Teng-hui won because he was the KMT main candidate and had the power of incumbency. And he only got 54%. Hardly a great showing if charisma matters.
Lien Chan would have won in 2000 if Soong had not split the vote.
The wooden Tsai Ying-wen won about 4% more of the vote in 2012 than the charismatic Frank Hsieh in 2008.
It’s stretching it from the above data to suggest charisma is a winning formula.
I disagree. His well known heidao connections would sink the campaign very early. Look how the insignificant scandal against Tsai Ying’wen’s running mate affected her ratings. After CSB, the DPP cannot run someone with a dubious background.
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) Li Deng Hui–charismatic, beats a split field. Chen–charismatic, beats dry as wood Lien Zhan and bombastic Soong in a split field, the Lien again. Ma–charismatic–beats Hsieh and then Tsai–not so much. I think people here respond to politicians on an emotional level, and this is definitely a factor.