China Becomes Taiwan

A syndicated columnist in the USA, John C. Bersia, writing for the Orlando Sentinel and the Knight Ridder chain, and published here in the Taiwan News, had an interesting comment today. What do you think?

“With the right attention, encouragement and engagement by the USA [and other countries], China could expand its economic progress, evolve into a big Taiwan that would not require more than a single “system” and embrace a new era of respect for human rights.”

He teaches at Central Florida University and a won a Pulitzer for editorial writing in 2000.

Earlier in the same essay, he wrote: “Popular pressure, accompanied by further unraveling of Communist Party influence, could propel changes along the lines of what happened in Taiwan as it moved from an authoritarian [Chinese] system to a democratic [Chinese] one in recent years.”

Is this guy on to something or is he deluded?

Ask the guy in question to put his crack pipe down… Slowly.

OK, I agree that the outcome he wishes for is the best one for China, however… I think that we are looking at the long term before it becomes feasible. Honestly, I expect to be old and feeble before I see a rich democratic China with a stable government living in peace with its neighbors.

The CCP has netiher the desire nor mindset needed for bringing China through to a democratic society. The views on how to handle dissent is modeled very closely on Leninism.

Also, the bubbles of discontent popping up from time to time around the edges of the Chinese empire would justify a bit of contimued repression.

Add to that the huge corruption on all levels of Chinese society… If a modern democracy is where they want to end up - and I doubt that it’s even the desire of most dissidents - then they certainly have their work cut out for them.

This kind of thread title is typical Taiwanese make-me-feel-good hubris.

?

[quote=“Mr He”]The CCP has netiher the desire nor mindset needed for bringing China through to a democratic society. The views on how to handle dissent is modeled very closely on Leninism.

Also, the bubbles of discontent popping up from time to time around the edges of the Chinese empire would justify a bit of contimued repression.

Add to that the huge corruption on all levels of Chinese society… If a modern democracy is where they want to end up - and I doubt that it’s even the desire of most dissidents - then they certainly have their work cut out for them.[/quote]
And how is any of that different to the status of Taiwan under the KMT in, say, the 60s/70s? I’m not saying I agree completely, but any reform-minded Chinese could do worse than look to Taiwan, and see what lessons there are in the ongoing democratisation happening here.

I would like to agree with you.

However, the democratization of this island was in no small part caused by pressure from the US, who had the added leverage of holding back vital arms sales to Taiwan. No such lever exists in relation to the PRC.

Also, Taiwan was a much richer society in 1987 than China is now. Wealth and education was spread more evenly than is the case in China. Therefore, the domestic conditions were ripe for a democratic revolution, which started out that very year, and is nearing its completition now.

I don’t see that happening in China now or for several years.

30-50 years down the road might be another matter.

[quote=“Mr He”]
I don’t see that happening in China now or for several years.

30-50 years down the road might be another matter.[/quote]

Yes, Mr He, I think Professor Bersia was thinking along those terms, too. A mere blip in time.

I have more faith in a return of the hardliners once the peasants inland realize they are never going to catch up with the coastal areas. Maybe even a second communist revolution.

If the CCP goes down, it will not go peacefully. Expect a few rough years in China…

something good might come out of it in the end, but that might take time and lots of bloodshed.

The problem with the CCP downfall situation is that it is currently being lead by a person from the “reformer” faction within the CCP. There views of how to handle situations within China are not like the “conservative” faction, which wishes to retain privilege.

Reformers are the ones that try to address all the social issues in China in constructive manners, thus progress. It is the reformers that also believe in making statements to the press, not propaganda. Thus, in the past few years there has been a solid front of statements towards the Strait Issue.

But the political science question which arises from China is quite an old question. Does multi-party politics detract from a statesman’s duty, by creating an environment where individuals benefit politically through divisive policy and, what is generally refer to as, theater.

PRC seems to be a living example of what Andrew Jackson, former USA president, advocated.

I’m sorry, but some of the people here are so short-sighted.

In the 70’s, no one could imagine that Taiwan or S. Korea would become democracies in 20 years.

Today, China is experiencing the same kind of growth and social liberalization. I think it is inevitable that China will be an open democracy.

China has never changed regimes without the loss of many lives.

Secondly, can democracy even succeed in a Chinese society? You could use Taiwan as an example, but is democracy succeeding here? Is the government working to establish a civil society? Even if so, Taiwan is a lot smaller than China, and thus much easier to govern. I just don’t see democracy (at least “democracy” in the view of most Westerners) as being feasible in China, and barely feasible at best in Taiwan.

[quote=“cheapfujianese”]I’m sorry, but some of the people here are so short-sighted.

In the 70’s, no one could imagine that Taiwan or S. Korea would become democracies in 20 years.

Today, China is experiencing the same kind of growth and social liberalization. I think it is inevitable that China will be an open democracy.[/quote]

I see a few problems with your argumentation, which is borrowed straight from Francis Fukuyama.

First of all, there’s nothing inevitable about democracy. It does not appear, once people reach a certain level of knowledge or material wealth.

Secondly, there are a few examples of countries regressing from democracy, especially it they suffer from certain national complexes, with Germany 1920-1933 being the prime example.

[quote=“Mr He”]
… there’s nothing inevitable about democracy. It does not appear, once people reach a certain level of knowledge or material wealth.
[/quote]Singapore being a very good example :wink:

cheapfujianese wrote:

You`ve brought your xenophobia back over to forumosa. Still hearing the voices of China-bashers in your head?

The other posters are right, there`s nothing inevitable about democracy.

Ach,let the poor kid dream on. Meanies :stuck_out_tongue: :smiling_imp:

Democracy isn’t inevitable, but in countries where there is a sizable middle class they will of course demand more political power. Poor people are easier to brainwash (i.e. religions, dictators, etc.) :loco: but richer people usually have greater expectations, though I can’t say they can’t be brainwashed also (i.e. many Americans feeling ‘Saddam had WMD’ and was a threat to the U.S.).
The real problem is whether China becomes wealthy. Given the extremely limited resources available on the planet, a Western lifestyle is simply not possible for everyone on the planet. Although countries like India, China, Brazil, etc. emulate the ‘modern lifestyle,’ it would be simply impossible and, probably, an incredibly destructive goal to try to reach. The world’s oil reserves are already expected to run out this century given the CURRENT state of affairs. :astonished: That the Chinese will want a democratic system is probably inevitable; the more cosmopolitan countries become the more easily influenced they often are by other cultures. If the grass is greener elsewhere, people will start making changes at home.

[quote=“sbmoor262004”]
The real problem is whether China becomes wealthy. Given the extremely limited resources available on the planet, a Western lifestyle is simply not possible for everyone on the planet. Although countries like India, China, Brazil, etc. emulate the ‘modern lifestyle,’ it would be simply impossible and, probably, an incredibly destructive goal to try to reach. The world’s oil reserves are already expected to run out this century given the CURRENT state of affairs. :astonished:[/quote]

Easy now, the limits of wealth have been discussed since Malthus made public that England has reached its limits for population growth some 200 years ago.

Oil consumption per GDP unit is falling, as oil gets expensive over the next decades, alternatives will be found, cleaner power and increased awareness about the environment will save the day - and make it possible for a large amount of Chinese to enjoy western lifestyles.

Relax, doomsday peophets have been wrong for the last many hundred years, no reason for it to be different now.

Why would Chinese want to be fat like the average Westerner?

Why would Chinese want to be fat like the average Westerner?[/quote]

There are a whole bunch o fat kids in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places in China… You must have noticed that :s .