China NOT invoking Anti Secession Law over NUC abolishment'

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

With President Chen disbanding the National Unification Council, doesn’t this action from “Taiwan Independence Seccessionist Forces” warrant the People’s Republic of China to invoke the Anti Secession Law to save their compatriots across the strait?

Some of my Chinese friends are demanding that the PRC invade Taiwan now. Its ‘perfectly legal’ they say.

Shouldn’t 800 Chinese missiles fly over Taiwan, destroying targets of strategic value? Shouldn’t PRC fighter jets take off from Fujian bases, ready to drop bombs? Shouldn’t thousands if not millions of paratroopers fill the Taiwanese skies?

Yet how come Taiwanese generals have said that China has not changed its military stance since? Whats going on? How come nothing is happening? Or will something happen soon?

2

Sheer idiocy. It’s just a shame you’ll never actually serve in the ROC military.

3

Saber rattling. :bicker: That is all that has been happening. I highly doubt china would physically attack Taiwan. There is too much at risk and the entire world is watching.

4

Why is it the TI nutters all want war, when everyone else is look to peace?

5

We Tibetans wished for peace. Look at what China did to us.

I am surprised Shrimpcrackers is making such pre-mature statements about China. I know my grandfather was laughing when he heard the Chinese were marching near Amdo. Look what happened

6

These days, there are a lot of TI/ers pretending to represent independence movements from other parts of China. A measure of desperation, I’ll wager. Just thought I’d put out the warning.

7

Because green nutjobs believe a world war fought amongst others is the only way they have a chance of sneaking through de jure independence.

8

[quote=“ShrimpCrackers”]Some of my Chinese friends are demanding that the PRC invade Taiwan now. Its ‘perfectly legal’ they say.
[/quote]

Purely out of curiosity, who are these Chinese “friends” of yours you often speak of? Why do you befriend them anyways? I won’t pretend I know you as a person at all, but you have been giving the impression that you hate China and anything Chinese with a passion. As you see it, they invaded your beloved motherland some 60 yrs ago, forced the ugly Chinese language onto your people, and what’s more, they continue to oppress your people, even in New York !! Even someone like me, who firmly opposes any military action from the Mainland, was labelled by you as some “card-carrying communist”, jusr because we had disagreement on some issues that are not nearly as fundamental as what your Chinese "
friends" are contradicting you on. Wouldn’t you see them as card-carrying communists as well? and why on earth would you befriend them then?

I can’t help but notice a lot of inconsistency in what you say. I would be a lot less surprised to see you wearing some T-shirt saying “I am not Chinese and I hate them” than hear you befriend all these people, who are not only Chinese (apparently a big deal for you), but also believe in unification through whatever path.

Or are those friends imaginary ?

9

There hasn’t been a real serious attempt to answer ShrimpCracker’s question. So, let me take a shot.

Your “Chinese friends”, imaginary or not, have many peers in mainland China who share their opinion. There are many on the mainland who’re tired of CSB’s games and prefer to end this issue once and for all. The mainland’s being slapped in the face while making attempts at low-level reconcillation, and there are many who question why it’s necessary to put up with it.

So, your question is: why hasn’t the PLA launched its invasion yet? Why aren’t there bombs and planes dropping on Taiwan as we speak? And the answer is: we don’t need to launch an invasion right now. Chen Shui-bian might be in a hurry to die, but the mainland isn’t in a hurry to kill. After all… why hurry? Are you going to invest in 23 million oars and help Taiwan row away?

  • First, PLA will be stronger next year than this year; in fact, probably another 15% stronger. The PLA will be even stronger the year after that; probably another 15% stronger. In a decade, the PLA will probably have an annual budget that’s 4x today’s budget size. In 20 years, the PLA will have an annual budget that’s 10x-16x today’s budget. In 30 years, the PLA might have an annual budget that’s 25x-64x today’s budget. The military balance will never get better for Taiwan with time. It only gets worse.

  • Second, with every year that goes by, the prospects of a peaceful reconcillation just grows. On the economic side, something like 40% of Taiwan’s trade now depends on mainland/HK. Next year, this will grow even more. The year after that, it’ll grow even more. The two sides are growing more dependent on each other economically, no matter how long CSB holds his breath.

The mainland’s growing wealthier, year by year. If CSB succeeds in separating Taiwan from the mainland growth engine… well, in about 15 years, the per capita GDP in Fujian/Guangdong/Zhejiang/Shanghai will be equal to Taiwan’s. In about 25 years, it’ll be much higher.

There are more Taiwanese living in the mainland this year than last year. There will be more Taiwanese living in the mainland next year than this year. And the year after that, the year after that, and the year after that. Sooner or later, the Blues will help Chinese pandas and tourists visit Taiwan. As soon as that happens, Chinese tourist numbers will only grow year after year. About 5 years after the opening of tourist links, I figure about 5 million Chinese tourists will be visiting Taiwan every year. And the year after that, 10 million. The year after that, 20 million.

So, the answer to your question is: the PLA hasn’t invaded yet because it’s not desperate. Far from it. The prospects for peaceful reconcillation (which might mean reunification) is better today than it’s ever been, and these prospects will only improve with time.

10

[quote=“cctang”]
So, your question is: why hasn’t the PLA launched its invasion yet? Why aren’t there bombs and planes dropping on Taiwan as we speak? And the answer is: we don’t need to launch an invasion right now. Chen Shui-bian might be in a hurry to die, but the mainland isn’t in a hurry to kill. After all… why hurry?[/quote]
In my opinion, this pretty much hits the nail on the head. I wondered what Beijing would do about Chen’s winding up of the NUC. I think they’ve done the smartest thing they could have done: pretty much nothing. The old farts in Beijing have learned from past mistakes. The missiles in 1995 and the white paper in early 2000 just pushed voters away from the blues. I think Chen was hoping to get a rise out of them and figured he had nothing to lose-and of course, he does have little left to lose. But the mainlanders, in spite of getting a bit of pie in their faces on this, know pretty well that abolishing the NUC is a one off thing and that Chen will not be able to take any further, more substantial, steps toward independence. Chen is spent. The mainlanders and everybody else know it. Rising to his bait would only give the next leading green political capital and make it harder for Ma Yingjiu to strike a balance.

11

[quote=“cctang”]There hasn’t been a real serious attempt to answer ShrimpCracker’s question. So, let me take a shot.

Your “Chinese friends”, imaginary or not, have many peers in mainland China who share their opinion. There are many on the mainland who’re tired of CSB’s games and prefer to end this issue once and for all. The mainland’s being slapped in the face while making attempts at low-level reconcillation, and there are many who question why it’s necessary to put up with it.

So, your question is: why hasn’t the PLA launched its invasion yet? Why aren’t there bombs and planes dropping on Taiwan as we speak? And the answer is: we don’t need to launch an invasion right now. Chen Shui-bian might be in a hurry to die, but the mainland isn’t in a hurry to kill. After all… why hurry? Are you going to invest in 23 million oars and help Taiwan row away?

  • First, PLA will be stronger next year than this year; in fact, probably another 15% stronger. The PLA will be even stronger the year after that; probably another 15% stronger. In a decade, the PLA will probably have an annual budget that’s 4x today’s budget size. In 20 years, the PLA will have an annual budget that’s 10x-16x today’s budget. In 30 years, the PLA might have an annual budget that’s 25x-64x today’s budget. The military balance will never get better for Taiwan with time. It only gets worse.

  • Second, with every year that goes by, the prospects of a peaceful reconcillation just grows. On the economic side, something like 40% of Taiwan’s trade now depends on mainland/HK. Next year, this will grow even more. The year after that, it’ll grow even more. The two sides are growing more dependent on each other economically, no matter how long CSB holds his breath.

The mainland’s growing wealthier, year by year. If CSB succeeds in separating Taiwan from the mainland growth engine… well, in about 15 years, the per capita GDP in Fujian/Guangdong/Zhejiang/Shanghai will be equal to Taiwan’s. In about 25 years, it’ll be much higher.

There are more Taiwanese living in the mainland this year than last year. There will be more Taiwanese living in the mainland next year than this year. And the year after that, the year after that, and the year after that. Sooner or later, the Blues will help Chinese pandas and tourists visit Taiwan. As soon as that happens, Chinese tourist numbers will only grow year after year. About 5 years after the opening of tourist links, I figure about 5 million Chinese tourists will be visiting Taiwan every year. And the year after that, 10 million. The year after that, 20 million.

So, the answer to your question is: the PLA hasn’t invaded yet because it’s not desperate. Far from it. The prospects for peaceful reconcillation (which might mean reunification) is better today than it’s ever been, and these prospects will only improve with time.[/quote]

Whether you realized it or not, you just gave justification as to why CSB should make the changes he proposed ASAP.

Chen is calling China’s bluff and it’s about time he did so.

12

Chen is calling China’s bluff? No. What he proposes is to call the bluff on 80% of the Taiwanese who presume he isn’t crazy enough to gamble with their livelihoods. That’s what CSB has to confront first of all, not the mainland. When TI/ers show their cards, if they dare to challenge the 80% of the Taiwanese, I’ll bet they’ll be disposed of by the Taiwanese themselves before they even get a chance to get everyone killed.

13

Is that the same 80% that don’t support notion that the PRC is their government?

14

Firstly, stop muddling up the facts. Taiwan was NEVER a part of the PRC. NEVER. That’s a fact, and no one can posit otherwise. So stop saying “reunification.” Do you need a history lesson?

There’s nothing wrong with the people in China. There’s something terribly wrong with the government, though.

And to answer ShrimpCrackers’ question: The reason why China isn’t attacking Taiwan, is because their military might is only probably marginally greater than Taiwan’s currently. That, and the fact that the USA and Japan would most likely come to the assistance of Taiwan. AND, a crazy action like that would scare South Korea into belligerence.

15

The object referred to by reunification is a divided China. I’m sure you knew that.
-Chuckles-
What are you going to do? Make me read your TI/er version of the history book where illegal immigrants from Fujian are called “native” Taiwanese and legal immigrants from around 1949 are called “foreigners”? Give me a facking break.

16

More like PRC knows CSB is a lame duck president and time is running out for him.

Once the KMT come back into power, even if it is not Ma, eventually the KMT will be in power on Taiwan again. Then will be a 180 on all the policies TI started.

CSB is just making the KMT job easier with his foolish actions. I don’t see CSB popularity spiking on Taiwan after his NUC action. Quite the opposite.

Over time there will be more Taiwanese of mixed WSR and BSR descent who the Hoklo will not accept, so their racially based constituents are slowly disappearing.

So when will TI actually declare independence? Tomorrow, not likely? 50 years, ha by then PRC and ROC will be too intertwined? Maybe, in their dreams… :laughing:

17

Oh, I realize it very well.

I realize what I described justifies why a Taiwanese-independence zealot should demand changes, immediately. I don’t agree that what I described justifies why the elected representative of all 23 million Taiwanese should demand changes, immediately.

I don’t “have a problem” with Chen Shui-bian or Lee Tung-hui, per se. I understand they’re acting to implement their own political beliefs, and I wouldn’t do any different if I were in their shoes, wearing their opinions. I also believe that their political beliefs, as it stands, does not conform with the interests of the majority of Taiwanese.

I’m looking forward to the Taiwanese people recognizing this aspect of his administration. I believe CSB’s low approval numbers reflect the fact that many now understand that to this administration, “democratization” is a second thought, the future general economic welfare of the Taiwanese people is a second thought, and the avoidance of war is a second thought.

I believe many now understand that CSB would rather see the Taiwanese impoverished, isolated, and bombed back into the stone age, if that’s what it took to produce an independent Taiwan. I believe this opinion isn’t shared by the vast majority of Taiwanese, and I believe this is why his time on the political stage will end soon.

18

I agree with everything you say, cc_tang, but I don’t feel Chen and the TIs are fighting a totally lost cause. There are a few other things to consider, such as the so-called silicon shield and the physical difficulty of invading a large island. As I see it, Chen and others like him can make gains that might ultimately lead to dejure independence for Taiwan by raising Taiwan’s international profile. Whatever the facts of life between Taiwan and China, there is always geopolitics to sway things. In the long run, it may prove in everyone’s best interests for China to “let Taiwan go” in some fashion or another. Even if Chen fails to stage a referendum of sovereignty or whatever, he is probably still thinking about pushing things along. I think he does quite well at this. At the same time, I think he is despicably neglectful of various social problems that beg for attention. As for administration, I think he scores fairly, considering he had to run a newborn government during fairly complicated global times.

But I can’t figure why China would complain to the UN over the NUC discontinuation. That seems to serve Chen’s interests, not China’s. (There is another thread on this subject.)

Oh yeah. The original topic. China hasn’t attacked because it hasn’t thought about it yet. They’ll only attack when they’re ready, and they may not want to ever attack at all. The more capitalist their military industry becomes, the greater likelihood that they’ll attack probably.

19

I don’t think anything is written in stone. A million things can change. China might be devastated by bird flu tomorrow, or an Islamic nuclear terrorist attack, and of course various geopolitical issues as you mentioned.

At the same time, even in my most objective moment it’s hard for me to undersatnd how Chen Shui-bian has actually achieved anything with his policies. The “freezing” of the NUC means absolutely nothing, except in terms of grade-school taunting. In terms of concrete policies, CSB hasn’t been able to effect fundamental change on any of the factors listed above:

  • on “geopolitics”, US/Taiwan relations were far better in 2000 than they are today,
  • US/China relations were far worse in 2000 than they are today,
  • on economic terms, Taiwan’s far more dependent today on the mainland than it’s ever been.
  • on social terms, the MAC survey results tell the story. Under CSB, even with the rhetorical war he’s been fighting, there’ve been minimal change on unification/independence sentiment over the past 6 years. (Independence sentiment grew from ~15% - 20%, which is barely above the margin of error.)
  • on military terms… well, do I need to say more?

So, again… what has CSB actually done, other than convince people to come out for large rallies and give a lot of folks ulcers? Is Taiwan, in any way, more capable today of resisting Beijing than it was 6 years ago?

20

news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006- … 288314.htm

It looks like CSB has been able to draw the ire of the following countries:

Hungry
"“This is a serious provocation not only against the one-China principle followed by the international community, but against peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits”, the spokesman said. "

Gabon
“Gabon’s government believes that peace, stability and development must be on the premise of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity”, the communique said, adding there was only one China in the world and Taiwan was an inalienable part of Chinese territory."

Djibouti
"It also condemned Chen’s actions and reaffirmed that Djibouti will keep supporting the one-China policy,still regarding Taiwan as an inseparable part of China. "

Namibia
“We strongly condemn all forms of unilateral separatist and secessionist activities as regards the Taiwan-China question,” Kapere said, adding that Chen’s decision “will only trigger a serious crisis and destroy peace and stability in the Asia-PacificRegion.”

Not to be critical but where are Taiwan’s 25 allies. Why aren’t they voicing their support of CSB wise decision of abolish the NUC? Where’s the fireworks…the celebratory type, not the military ones.