[quote=“cctang”]There hasn’t been a real serious attempt to answer ShrimpCracker’s question. So, let me take a shot.
Your “Chinese friends”, imaginary or not, have many peers in mainland China who share their opinion. There are many on the mainland who’re tired of CSB’s games and prefer to end this issue once and for all. The mainland’s being slapped in the face while making attempts at low-level reconcillation, and there are many who question why it’s necessary to put up with it.
So, your question is: why hasn’t the PLA launched its invasion yet? Why aren’t there bombs and planes dropping on Taiwan as we speak? And the answer is: we don’t need to launch an invasion right now. Chen Shui-bian might be in a hurry to die, but the mainland isn’t in a hurry to kill. After all… why hurry? Are you going to invest in 23 million oars and help Taiwan row away?
First, PLA will be stronger next year than this year; in fact, probably another 15% stronger. The PLA will be even stronger the year after that; probably another 15% stronger. In a decade, the PLA will probably have an annual budget that’s 4x today’s budget size. In 20 years, the PLA will have an annual budget that’s 10x-16x today’s budget. In 30 years, the PLA might have an annual budget that’s 25x-64x today’s budget. The military balance will never get better for Taiwan with time. It only gets worse.
Second, with every year that goes by, the prospects of a peaceful reconcillation just grows. On the economic side, something like 40% of Taiwan’s trade now depends on mainland/HK. Next year, this will grow even more. The year after that, it’ll grow even more. The two sides are growing more dependent on each other economically, no matter how long CSB holds his breath.
The mainland’s growing wealthier, year by year. If CSB succeeds in separating Taiwan from the mainland growth engine… well, in about 15 years, the per capita GDP in Fujian/Guangdong/Zhejiang/Shanghai will be equal to Taiwan’s. In about 25 years, it’ll be much higher.
There are more Taiwanese living in the mainland this year than last year. There will be more Taiwanese living in the mainland next year than this year. And the year after that, the year after that, and the year after that. Sooner or later, the Blues will help Chinese pandas and tourists visit Taiwan. As soon as that happens, Chinese tourist numbers will only grow year after year. About 5 years after the opening of tourist links, I figure about 5 million Chinese tourists will be visiting Taiwan every year. And the year after that, 10 million. The year after that, 20 million.
So, the answer to your question is: the PLA hasn’t invaded yet because it’s not desperate. Far from it. The prospects for peaceful reconcillation (which might mean reunification) is better today than it’s ever been, and these prospects will only improve with time.[/quote]
Whether you realized it or not, you just gave justification as to why CSB should make the changes he proposed ASAP.
Chen is calling China’s bluff and it’s about time he did so.