China protests / uprisings - the start of Chinese Revolution 3.0? Effects on Taiwan?

I’m sure that many such conversations have been had. But there was literally no opposition to Xi amending the Constitution. That’s not what it looks like when a leader is about to be replaced. And even the letter you linked to was anonymous.

I’ve been talking to Chinese people for six years and I lived in China for three years. If anything, I’ve been seeing people become more nationalistic and pro-regime over the years. I could be wrong and end up looking stupid though.

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That’s a shitty thing to say about 1.3 billion people who at any hint of protest can be disappeared by their own government.

Since I’m assuming you have no idea what that is like, people have to believe the costs of staying silent outweigh the costs of speaking out. We saw some of this in the first lockdown in Shanghai, but only when it becomes clear that their lockdowns will never stop and you could just as easily die in a fire as you would from covid, people will start to mobilize.

We’ve seen the same pattern but for different reasons in places like Russia and Iran. I definitely feel sympathy for people who have no control over what their government does.

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Biggest blunder from the CCP is that fear only works when you sell compliance as the solution.

The zero COVID stuff removed that entirely leaving fear without anyway to avoid it. Therefore people have been backed into a corner and are forced to fight since there’s no remedy through compliance

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Where were they when the government rounded up the Uighurs? Crushed HK? Bully Taiwan? Invaded Tibet?

Rooting them on.

The CCP have enjoyed overwhelming support because it made them rich and fed their nationalistic egos. You think the CCP one day woke up and and decided to do all of the above? You should see the things they said to me about uighurs when I was there. Maybe they don’t say this to you because you aren’t ethically Han, but they basically called them lesser in every way. It’s not a coincidence what’s happening in Xinjang.

Save your sympathies.

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Who’s they? University students? You go live under a government that could destroy your life for posting the wrong thing on social media and then tell us how brave you are.

According to what? A survey conducted by the CCP? :rofl:

What one person says to you does not give license to generalize 1.3 billion people with their own thoughts, lives etc. The people who don’t agree with the CCP aren’t just going to run up and tell you that.

Be human.

I lived there for a bit. Had no issues telling them off. But I’m sure you’ll just come back with it’s not the same. I’ve been living under the threat of China from the day I was born so save it for someone else.

I’ve seen enough when I was there. And I’ve seen enough with Chinese abroad. Once you talk about subject like Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjang. You see how that kind person change into something nasty. I’m tired of their BS. The best I can hope for is they learn their lesson.

This is totally different than Russia and Iran. I’ve met plenty of Iranian and Russians that openly voice their opinions against their countries with similar risk. You see their professional athletes risk it all in recent memory. This is totally different from my experience with Chinese. Even the ones abroad are even more fanatical for whatever reason.

Even living here in the UK, I’m not safe from Chinese aggression.

I will pray and hope they liberalize and democratize. But sympathize? No. Not from me.

This is being human. Maybe you don’t get it but it’s been part of my entire life. I will need to see a lot more change before they get my sympathy.

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I’ve lived there too all over China. From rural Sichuan province, to Hunan, Nanjing, Beijing, Guangzhou, Xiamen etc. There are good people everywhere. You think you’re under threat, but you have no idea what it is to be Chinese and unable to even say how you feel.

Just because someone treated you badly, does not mean you can paint all people of the same nationality with the same brush.

I get that you’re using emotion over reason to make judgments about people. I feel sympathy for anyone who is oppressed and has no control over their situation, whether they be Iranian, Russian, Chinese whoever. People who are willing to risk their lives to demand change deserve our support.

Once we lose the ability to see those people as human just like us, then we lose our own humanity.

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I see them as human. Humans are flawed.

Idk what your experience living there and with the people is like but I’m quite sure it’s going to be different than mine. Constantly being told that Taiwan is part of China whenever they realize I’m from Taiwan is tiring. My experience was so strange. As you’ve said, many kind and good people but once the subject of Taiwan, Uighurs, etc were brought up. Everything changes.

Forgive me if I’ve had to harden my heart and soul against them. I have to mentally prepare to go to war and kill them before they kill me. I would like to make it back home to my loved ones and family so I need to be mentally prepared for the horrors of war these people keep wanting to bring to my home. This is something that weighs on me every day.

I will pray for them and hope they will change and become more like us. But I will not sympathize against my enemies that say they will come and kill me.

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My experience is largely the same with respect to meeting strangers. I speak Mandarin with a thick Taiwanese accent. So I’m often confronted with statements 你知道台灣是中國的一部分吧。

I first travelled to China in 2007 and the last time was 2019. So I’ve seen perspectives change. I have classmates, friends, coworkers (former) from all walks of life in China.

Of those that I’ve had deep friendships with many would tell me they felt powerless to change anything. Others didn’t know any better and had limited access to outside information.

I know enough not to take some anecdotal experiences and extrapolate that over a huge population and then place blame on people have no part in the CCP’s oppression and no control over even their own lives.

I think that just takes maturity. Not everyone in China is your enemy. I’m sure most Ukrainians don’t blame all Russians when they know many are powerless to stop the war even when they try. You have to be able to separate people or you’ll end up turning into what you hate.

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One can love Taiwan without hating China.

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I will say the same to your anecdotes.

I’ve seen enough. All of my life I’ve had to deal with this nonsense. I’ve given them plenty of chances and lived, slept, and ate with them. When it comes to me wanting to be free, they have only shown me 1 face.

I don’t need your condescending love lectures. I have to carry the burden each and every day to prepare my heart and soul for what war brings. I do not want to go to war and kill people. But this is what China prepares for every day.

Because so many Russians speak out. Almost every single Russian I’ve met and know do not agree with what’s happening. Their athletes protests in international competitions and risks it all. I’ve never seen anything like that in China or from Chinese people.

I’ve said what I needed to say. You can save the lectures of humanity for after the war.

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Bold words.

Guy

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I doubt China would suddenly give up on the Taiwan reunification dream even if it democratized and or changed parties. The Chinese people are overwhelmingly pro Taiwan reunification.

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This conversation helps to illustrate the importance of knowing your enemy and being able to separate those who are committing atrocities from those who are the victims of said atrocities.

An example of where this line is blurred would be the killings committed by US soldiers during the Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

In Vietnam, the line between the Viet Cong and the local Vietnamese had become indistinguishable. This was often intentional as the VC hid amongst local villagers and used suicide tactics. Understandably, soldiers confronted with these atrocities would be enraged. Thus the dehumanizing of all Vietnamese led to the massacre of women and children in incidents like the My Lai massacre.

Even during the aftermath off WWII, it would’ve been wrong to blame all German people for the atrocities committed by the Nazis.

War is ugly. It hurts everyone.

We can all sing and hand hands and build museums after the war.

But as long as China prepares for war, I will have to fortify my mind and harden my heart for my own survival and the survival of a democratic country. I don’t want any of this. My life is good right now but it’s the burden I carry each day.

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You live in the UK and we’re not at war.

Just remember there are good people in China too.

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Fun thought experiment, what if Taiwan developed nukes as a deterrent that Ukraine didn’t have? What if they already have? I know that this would cross a massive red line for China if it were to be discovered that they are working on developing them, so obviously stakes are massive and it would have to be completely under wraps.

Back on subject – when the penalty for speaking out against the Chinese government can be up to 10 years imprisonment… yeah I don’t think this uprising is going to be able to sustained. Of course could be wrong, but god how many times has stuff like this happened for it to come to naught? Some of this stuff gets really overblown too, courtesy of FLG extremists. Still waiting on that 3 gorges dam to imminently collapse…

Also how many times have people on this forum thought a Chinese invasion was imminent? IMO long, slow-burn of subterfuge / buying out the rich here would do the trick over a decade or so, no shots fired. Absorption via soft power would keep the infrastructure of Taiwan intact, while also being a much more palatable approach for the rest of the world. China seems very sensitive to international opinion as it strives to eventually be seen as world hegemon – it is still battling off bad PR from Covid and Xinjiang, so such an aggressive mood like invading Taiwan, especially on the heels of global outrage for Ukraine being invaded by Russia, would be tantamount to soft power suicide I think.

Brute-force invading Taiwan could easily toss China’s future BRI aspirations into the trash bin of history.

Shrek wanted to, so did his son, but the USA said no.

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I know that happened long ago, but times are different now. What are the chances the US just turns a blind eye to it today?

Trump would definitely turn a blind eye. Not sure about Biden.