China’s Secret Military Plan: Invade Taiwan by 2020


I disagree. You have to consider the latest published US doctrine in countering A2AD, then you’ll come to the conclusion that maintaining a strong TW Army is critical. What you said would be a valid argument in the 90s and 00s. But not anymore.


In order to attract the right type of human resource, TW’s government must rebrand its military organization thoroughly with new names, insignia, visual identity, and culture. The ethnic/cultural composition within the organization must be adjusted so that it’s the same as the general population. Dual identity/dual allegiance cannot be allowed. Those who are not committed to Taiwan’s independence against China (however one defines it) are unfit for Taiwan’s defence against China.

(If one is not committed to Taiwan’s independence against China, one cannot be expected to commit to Taiwan’s defence against China. This is a given.)


So no dual citizens?


I understand what you’re saying. However the army is trained as basic infantry against other infantry. If you’re talking about putting more resources in the army along with land to aircraft and ship missiles with training for that. That’s all fine. But we’re not. What I’m saying is still true because if the PLA are able to land troops in the island. It’s game over. The prevention and deterrent of that is my point.

That’s ridiculous, I would enlist instantly if there was ever war. Not that I wouldn’t be scared but I would still see it as my duty to protect my native country as a dual citizen.


Chinese troops would be not be able to survive on Taiwan if Taiwan keeps an army. Keeping a strong army is a relatively small investment that yields huge return. Your strategy is flawed.

By dual identity I was referring to dual Chinese-Taiwanese identity. This segment of population should be excluded from serving in the initial phase of restructuring. Once the Taiwanese brand of military is firmly established, people with dual identity can be enlisted with the goal of assimilation.


I don’t recall proposing a strategy.


sorry I should have replied to Andrew0409 instead of you.


rendering taiwan basically a war zone that’s going to destroyed by war. What’s the point of defending anything left? If the PLA are able to successfully able to put troops on the island that’s even consider a threat, I’m a assuming that they pretty much just rendered any naval and Air Force branches defending the island obsolete.


Look, this is getting a bit frustrating. Why would a Taiwanese Army render Taiwan into a war zone? Why would you even think like that?

Taiwan needs an army to protect critical land-based assets (mobile or not) which can project into the sea and air domains. Don’t forget Taiwan also has many islands to defend. If Taiwan has no sizeable army, China will be tempted to try in many different ways to render Taiwan’s land-based assets useless for the purpose of air-sea domains.

A Taiwanese Army removes many good options for China to land troops on Taiwan, thus deterring China in that regard.


Taiwan’s land-based military assets need to be protected against China’s airborne and amphibious units which aim to take out Taiwan’s mobile launchers, ISR infrastructure, and command centers. Taiwan’s civilian land-based assets need to be protected against special-ops and 5-th column sabotage. Why would you even want to suggest that TW should leave a gaping hole for China to exploit?


sofun, I think Andrew’s point is that anything that Taiwan puts in China’s way is just going to be treated as target practice. You’re talking about China here. You know, big country up North? Largest economy on the planet and military budget to match? Taiwan spending a shitload of money on more outdated military hardware will just hold them up a bit, that’s all.

If we’re in armchair general mode, I would go with training the entire population in urban warfare techniques and simply shut down all traditional military installations (= bombing targets). China would just waltz in without bombing anything, and then spend the next 20 years dealing with a sullen, resistant population. And they would know that in advance.

Anyway, it’s a bit silly. China ain’t going to invade. They’ll probably just buy the place eventually.


Do you mean that big country which is in debt for 300% of its own GDP? Do you mean that big country whose economy will collapse simply by US kicking their banks off SWIFT? Oh yah I know which country you’re talking about.

Whether China decides to risk going bust or not, their army cannot just walk 130Km over to Taiwan. These brave Chinese men need to board a ship or a plane, and as they approach Taiwan within say 10 KM, these brave Chinese men become target practice for Taiwanese Army. Do you see the value of the army now?

Yet another question is, do you think Chinese parents will send their only child (male) to die or do you think they prefer to send their son to US?


Interesting question. If “saving face” is an important aspect of Chinese culture, and if loosing face will cause the Chinese to go berserk and “provoked,” then isn’t it also true that making sure the only male son can survive and make money is actually an even more important aspect of Chinese culture?


None of that matters. All economies are propelled by a tidal wave of belief. As long as China believes it’s the biggest and the best, it’ll remain so. Much like the US, in fact, who aren’t going to risk upsetting their own smoke-and-mirrors game.

Well, see, this is the point. The Chinese government cannot risk upsetting a billion-odd somewhat fractious Chinese people, not over some crappy little island. Unless they’re completely, utterly, Kim-Jong-Un-grade crazy. So I’m pretty confident that even if Taiwan were 100% defenceless, China just wouldn’t bother.

Not really, no. As you suggested yourself, the simplest solution to this issue would be for China to first bomb the crap out of any defensive capacity that Taiwan might have, and I believe they’re quite well-equipped to do this.

Dunno, but I would guess the opinions of a soldier’s parents don’t override the orders of said soldier’s commanding officer. At least, not unless the parents reckon it’s time for another glorious revolution. Again, China starting a war with Taiwan could have all sorts of complicated internal repercussions.


Yes but not only is China’s GDP growth is debt-fueled, but so is China’s capital outflow. You are correct in predicting that China’s rising debt won’t diminish Chinese people’s confidence (since they are only allowed to see the growth side but not the debt side.) However, capital outflow will.


Well, China will not be able to destroy Taiwan’s defensive capacity if Taiwan’s defensive capacity is distributed, numerous, dispersed and mobile. If you’re arguing for Taiwan to scrap the army, then you are essentially proposing to make China’s challenge less complicated. This is certainly not an intelligent way of thinking.


Course it will. It’ll just take longer. They’ve got all the time in the world. And all the bombs in the world. Which is what Andrew was alluding to earlier, I think.

Besides, Taiwan is going to pay for that fancy kit … how, exactly? By running up debt like the US and China? That’s a mug’s game; the US and USSR-as-was stopped playing that one a long time ago, and everyone else should have taken note.

Precisely. As I said, China could just waltz in without causing any damage to anything or anyone. If they were stupid enough to do so. Because what happens after that would be a different issue entirely. (cough)Afghanistan(cough)

TBH I’m just playing devil’s advocate here. The best option would be some sort of compromise - arranging things such that a pre-invasion bombing campaign would make Taiwan not worth owning afterwards.


The whole point of owning Taiwan is to be able to outflank Japan, by projecting forces from Taiwan. There’s no point of bombing Taiwan to the point that even US forces can bomb Taiwan. This is the ultimate dilemma - if Taiwan (with all the anti-air defense) can survive on Taiwan for X amount of time, then how long can PLA survive on Taiwan without anti-air defense? How would Chinese men stranded on Taiwan defend themselves against US bombing?


Youre not listening, and completely misunderstanding what im saying. And i’m even agreeing with you on many points but maybe not the finer details. I’m saying once the PLA is successfully landing troops on the island…isn’t it a fair bet the ROC is losing the war. And using any infantry basically delaying the sure defeat thats also just going to render the country a war zone. Tanks and guns going off in taipei for the city…yeah it’s not somewhere thats going to be pretty. We might as well destroy the whole country’s infrastructure as one last fuck you to the CCP.

One benefit of Taiwan that has kept it from being taken from the PLA is that it’s an island. Why wouldn’t the PLA have just chased CKS and wiped his whole party off the face of the map to prevent him ever trying to retake the mainland in his fantasy?

I said the exact same thing…but i’m saying we are not allocating our resources into that at all! We are training basic infantry not buying and training land to air and sea technicians. I said this if you read my previous post.

Also my point is this, the days full out war between one military against another is probably over. Any military force is mostly for prevention of war. WW3 would be more bloody than anything we can imagine with todays weapons. So in reality, although the PLA will probably win the war in a scenario where only the ROC and PLA military engaged in war. Our best defense is to make sure that the causalities and losses are so high that the CCP wouldn’t make that move. It’s easy to say they will retake the island and Taiwan is part of China as propaganda. It becomes a different story when the CCP sends back body bags of their sons and daughters. They’ve never had that experience. Also the economic cost is something the CCP is well aware of. They’re only in power due to the economic wealth they are bringing today.

So basically, they can’t exactly march troops into the island, they have to send them by air or sea. We take down as many as possible instead of losing the advantage of an island and fight on it like if we were contacted land masses. That’s all assuming they don’t bomb most of the county or even nuke it. And no other military forces gets involved.


Once China lands troops on Taiwan, these brave Chinese men can still be trapped and decimated. Their further support from sea can be cut off. It happens all the time. The farther they move inland the higher the risk of being cut off.

If they move too fast then can be ambushed. If they move too slow they can be shelled. Their odds of surviving are quite low.

Army isn’t just about infantry and infantry isn’t just about rifles. Infantry can operate sensors, UAVs, Javalin and Stinger, which Taiwan has. Taiwan’s numerical advantage and asymmetric advantage are great on land.