China stock market is going to burst?

There are some experts issue an warning that China market will burst ?
How do you think about this?

wisher, no offense, but can you at least supply a link or something to go on? Who are these experts?

If you are getting most of your information from the TV, I think you need to understand that news is business and “The sky is falling” business reports sell more advertising space.

jds

The CCP will never let the market crash in the run-up to the Olympics. Safe as er um houses.

As long as they keep invensting in fundamentals like the fact that a company has a ‘lucky’ ID code, how could it ever crash?

JD,I think you are right.
Yes,I heard this from TV.
I can’t find any link or related news and it is a bit confusing me.
That’s why I post it here.
Thanks for your suggestion.

Hmmmm… Shanghai A share index was supposed to top out at 3000, then 3500, then 4000, then 4500, then 5000, then…zzzzzzzzzzzz

Calling the exact peak in a full-blown super-excess cash driven market (like the PRC) where valuations are stretched farther than a successful underwear wedgie given to the Green Giant is like forecasting a tornado in the South Pole. You can forecast it, but in all likelihood you’ll give up on waiting for it to happen.

Look at Taiwan leading up to its 12000+ peak in 1990. The run started around 2000+. Many people tried to call the peak, but chased the mkt again 1000’s of points higher. A great book was written on it (in english).

I have my own statistical idea when a peak is nearing. It’s related to GDP, but that’s all I’ll say.

I think it’ll peak at 8888.

What was the name of that Taiwan 1990 bubble book?

You mean by Steve Champion?

Aiyo, Google, it really is useful!

HG

Two bubbles burst in Asian atm,Japan and Taiwan.
But we learned more from the failure.
At least,it is not a bad thing.

i just saw a report on biz china talking about the real estate market in BJ. said because the sale: rent ratio is above normal 315:1, the annual yield is less than average (4%). “Normal” ratios or desirable ratios should be between 210-310: 1 which would give you the 4% annual yield.

FWIW/YMMV, etc.

I have no any idea about real estate in China.
My friend bought one in suzou,it was not expensive two years ago.
But now the price is up ,up.

Thanks JD for giving me this article.
strategycenter.net/research/ … detail.asp

It still has another year or 2 in it, I think. The Chinese stock market is more or less secure till after the olympics.

However then - the hammer will fall and it will fall hard.

I think that the piece by Arthur Waldron is a bit OTT, however serious unrest might be an issue. Time for t he CCP to shoot another few thousand citizens in other to hold on to power?

Or another way of reading oit is that the China stock markets aren’t abiding by normal rules because normally countries don’t experience such sudden and compelling growth. Mind you I’ve never bought a share in my life and I wouldn’t buy PRC real estate in a fit.

HG

It may need much time that China allow foreigners to own land there.

[quote] The Chinese stock market is more or less secure till after the olympics.
[/quote]

Will it be possible to last longer till after 2010 "Shanghai World Exposition "?

I do not subscribe to the idea that a stock market is “safe” because of Olympic games, some expo etc. - are there any facts to back-up those claims?

Simple. The Chinese government controls the stock market. The Chinese government wants the Olympics to be a success.

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Mind you I’ve never bought a share in my life and I wouldn’t buy PRC real estate in a fit.

HG[/quote]

Which given the current and expected madness to come, especially in Shanghai, is probably why I’ll always be poor.

HG

I believe it’s the next big hairy monster on the horizon.