China takes Taiwan in 2006

[wolf_reinhold]

The Year to Fear
By Wendell Minnick
A long and interesting article…

If China decides to use force to reunify the mainland with what it terms a breakaway province, the window of opportunity is believed to be 2006. This would give China a couple of years to clean up the mess before the 2008 Summer Olympics. Most analysts estimate that China’s military strength will surpass Taiwan’s defense capabilities by 2005. So 2006 - the Year of the Dog - is clearly the year to fear.

Most of the initial fighting would be in the Zhong Zheng District, Taipei, which contains the Presidential Building, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Legislative Yuan.

Infiltrators might receive some assistance from sympathetic elements within Taiwan’s military and police, who are believed to be at least 75 percent pro-Kuomintang (KMT), and hence, pro-unification. Many could use taxis to move about the city unnoticed. Mainland Chinese prostitutes, already in abundance in Taiwan, could be recruited by Chinese intelligence to serve as femme fatales, supplying critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night; death is the ultimate aphrodisiac.

Except for special forces and the marines, it is unlikely that the rest of Taiwan’s infantry brigades scattered across the island would do much. As the saying goes, “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that matters.” Taiwan’s military is rife with lethargic and ineffectual troops just begging for their 20-month tour of duty to end so they can go back to their girlfriends and jobs. Many call Taiwan’s youth, including its young soldiers, the “strawberry generation” because they are soft and spoiled by the good life.

Taiwan’s military also faces an identity crisis. The idea that Taiwan is part of China still resonates strongly within the military. For example, unit patches worn by soldiers often bear the outline of China, not Taiwan.

Taiwan’s navy would have little to do in this war scenario, except sink like rocks.

The PACs will only be able to hit missiles coming down on northern Taiwan. The south is totally unprotected from ballistic missiles. China’s special forces, infiltrated to Taiwan, would take a keen interest in locating and destroying the PACs. Everyone knows where they are, so it would not be too difficult.

[zeugmite]

@wolf_reinhold

Mainland Chinese prostitutes, …, could be recruited [to supply] critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night;

So that’s what the “key” government and military leaders are up to…

[almas_john]

Thanks Wolf. Interesting article.
By the way, how’s your counter-intelligence work going (i.e. pumping those spying Mainland hookers for info)?

[Vorkosigan]

I remember when the window of opportunity was 2003. Then it was 2005. Now it’s 2006.

[Screaming_Jesus]

What, this isn’t a sports prediction? Okay…

I agree that this type of scenario is more realistic than the Normandy one. (Realistic in that China might actually try it.) But there are huge problems with this analysis.

Now that Taiwan knows China might do this, couldn’t they just “watch the skies” and be ready to shoot paratroopers as they drop? Unless there’s bombing first… Anyway, I think it would be easier for the Chinese to just smuggle their divisions onto the island, travel in small groups, and meet up at CKS Hall.

Attacking the presidential palace and so on is the easy part. Keeping control of an airstrip would be difficult, since the Taiwanese and U.S. air forces would both be trying to bomb it until it’s unusable.

So, can the Taiwanese military take 20,000 Chinese soldiers? Presumably the borders would be the hills around Taipei, that’s where the land battles would take place.

The article glosses over the problem of legitimacy. Sure, the Chinese could swear someone into office on TV, but so what? It’s not as though the U.S. would change its plans just because China went through the right ritual.

A few random comments:

Infiltrators might receive some assistance from sympathetic elements within Taiwan’s military and police, who are believed to be at least 75 percent pro-Kuomintang (KMT), and hence, pro-unification.

This does not follow. It wouldn’t work this way at all. The Chinese would have more luck with bribery, say of select ROC military officers.

Many could use taxis to move about the city unnoticed

Um, that’s hardly a problem. I’m sure Chinese spies are ALREADY moving about unnoticed.

Mainland Chinese prostitutes, already in abundance in Taiwan, could be recruited by Chinese intelligence to serve as femme fatales,

Um, I’m glad somebody’s thinking ahead…

[Omniloquacious]

I’ll opt for being taken out with a femme fatale rather than a missile.

[Falcon1]

@wolf_reinhold

Mainland Chinese prostitutes, …, could be recruited [to supply] critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night;

Remember that there needs to be abundant levels of sexual intercourse between people (of all social strata) on both sides of the Taiwan Strait in order to more fully implement the special state-to-state relationship

[Screaming_Jesus]

But would the top people patronize Chinese hookers? I thought they’d have more class than that.

Russian, maybe.

[4nr1]

This is a good follow up article from the Senior CNN Asia corospondent
Willy Wo-lap Lam. He discusses an interesting “Law on National Reunification” concept. I do believe this has a chance to materialize.

jamestown.org/publications_d … e_id=23617

“However, if by mid-2005 or so it has become obvious
to Beijing that Chen is persevering with what the
CCP leadership calls his “ambition of becoming the
father of the Taiwan nation,” the Hu team will
likely unleash something drastic. One option that
has been suggested by LGTA experts is the enactment
of a Law on National Reunification (LNR).”

[zeugmite]

[quote=“4nr”]This is a good follow up article from the Senior CNN Asia corospondent
Willy Wo-lap Lam. He discusses an interesting “Law on National Reunification” concept. I do believe this has a chance to materialize.
[/quote]

TI’ers are piss drunk as PRC is content for now with the status quo but will not let Taiwan achieve independence. The more Taiwan pries for independence before conditions are right, the more it has to lose as PRC is forced to react. The LNR is a realization of the concept of “gradual unification to counter gradual separatism,” basically a confrontational stance. Taiwan needs to realize that it is fighting the public opinion of 1.4 billion people, not the PRC elite. Symmetric to the case of reunification, until the relevant opinions change, there is no chance one side will just give up. Status quo is the only hope of a viable centerline for calm in the near future.

[Hobart]

[quote=“zeugmite”][quote=“4nr”]This is a good follow up article from the Senior CNN Asia corospondent
Willy Wo-lap Lam. He discusses an interesting “Law on National Reunification” concept. I do believe this has a chance to materialize.
[/quote]

TI’ers are piss drunk as PRC is content for now with the status quo but will not let Taiwan achieve independence. The more Taiwan pries for independence before conditions are right, the more it has to lose as PRC is forced to react. The LNR is a realization of the concept of “gradual unification to counter gradual separatism,” basically a confrontational stance. Taiwan needs to realize that it is fighting the public opinion of 1.4 billion people, not the PRC elite. Symmetric to the case of reunification, until the relevant opinions change, there is no chance one side will just give up. Status quo is the only hope of a viable centerline for calm in the near future.[/quote]

The PRC Commies can make whatever so called “laws” they want. Taiwan is not governed by nor do they have any connection with any aspects of the PRC. This LNR would also be a telgraphed punch and allow ample time for defense, not nearly as scary as a surprise attack.

Also, last I checked, the USA can still defeat the combined forces of the PRC with two hands tied behind their back and they would never let the Commies try anything against Taiwan, unless they are baiting you guys so they can smack you back down to your knees and teach you some manners and perhaps force a regime change.

By the way, how did CNN get taken over by these undercover Xinhua News agency propagandists? Slick Willy Ho Lamb seems like a real patriotic red guard.

[zeugmite]

@Hobart

The PRC Commies can make whatever so called “laws” they want.

Sure, and why not? The TRA is a fine precedent.

@Hobart

Also, last I checked, the USA can still defeat the combined forces of the PRC with two hands tied behind their back and they would never let the Commies try anything against Taiwan

All the more reason to avoid this sort of confrontation since no one is going to back down. Rationality is nowhere guaranteed for any party involved.
Fool, this is not some ideological battle between the USA and the PRC. The Cold War is long over. There will be even less chance of calm if it there is any more ideology involved.

@Hobart

Slick Willy Ho Lamb seems like a real patriotic red guard.

Why? What position of the PRC or anybody else has he supported? What’s his agenda? He’s just analyzing the PRC, as he well should because it’s his job … sheesh.

---

PS. While we are throwing around inanities: Lee Tung-hui embodies the trinity of a Japanese colonial running dog, benefactor, and willing war criminal in the Axis killing machine; an erstwhile underground Commie pinko (a ChiCom at that); and a KMT foreign regime evil corrupt dictatorial oppressing collaborator with blood on his hands. Why do you forgive him, Mr. Repugnican I-own-a-big-gun man? Why do you not only forgive such atrocities against mankind as killing people, being a Commie pinko, and kowtowing to a dictatorial regime, but you even want an autograph from “da man”? Should you not, in your holy and infallible moral posture, smite such an evil and depraved man that he burn in the eternal fire pit of hell? Or perhaps in days of better judgment you would prefer to “smoke him out” and “get him” “dead or alive”?

[ludahai]

[quote=“zeugmite”]
TI’ers are piss drunk as PRC is content for now with the status quo but will not let Taiwan achieve independence. The more Taiwan pries for independence before conditions are right, the more it has to lose as PRC is forced to react. The LNR is a realization of the concept of “gradual unification to counter gradual separatism,” basically a confrontational stance. Taiwan needs to realize that it is fighting the public opinion of 1.4 billion people, not the PRC elite. Symmetric to the case of reunification, until the relevant opinions change, there is no chance one side will just give up. Status quo is the only hope of a viable centerline for calm in the near future.[/quote]

Why should I, or anyone else, care about the opinions of 1.3 billion BRAINWASHED people!!! Obviously, the leaders of China don’t!

[zeugmite]

[quote=“ludahai”]
Why should I, or anyone else, care about the opinions of 1.3 billion BRAINWASHED people!!! Obviously, the leaders of China don’t![/quote]

Are you done reciting from the little elephant book?

[Hobart]

Zeugmite is a real piece of work. Really scary. Zeugmite, may I ask if you hold only a PRC passport? Anybody traceroute his IP to see if he is writing from ZhongNanHai?

[SCL]

@zeugmite

Lee Tung-hui embodies the trinity of a Japanese colonial running dog, benefactor, and a willing war criminal in the Axis killing machine, an erstwhile underground Commie pinko (a ChiCom at that), and a KMT foreign regime evil corrupt dictatorial oppressing collaborator with blood on his hands.

I see that Babelfish can translate, but it can’t do math.

[ac_dropout]

A-bien mother wore Army boots. That’s because A-bien couldn’t wear ROC military boots.

Lee Tung Huei wore Japanese Army boots.

So who are going to defend ROC against PRC. KMT Army boots.

[dl7und]

@ac_dropout

So who are going to defend ROC against PRC. KMT Army boots.

The same way they did it before?

[ac_dropout_unban]

dl7und,

With the moral so low due to the draft in Taiwan. I don’t see much of a fight if PRC invades without USA intervention.

[Mr_He]

People tend to fight rather viciously for their homes. Wouldn’t you?

People have been complaining about youth since Socrates, and well many a young man has given his life for his home since.