[quote=“mod lang”]Ah, but you can compare Japan’s performance pre-1950 to China’s current performance, and perhaps that is the better comparison. Post-Meiji Restoration Japan started from a similar non-industrialized, peasant society as China did, and developed more rapidly than any other nation in history.[/quote]I’m sure someone has published an academic paper out there discussing GDP growth in post-Meiji restoration Japan. Do you have a reference we can look at to evaluate this claim?
I really am interesting in seeing specific numbers. But I’d also like to point out the “Meiji restoration” started in 1868. What was the size of Japan’s economy 25 years later, in 1893? Are you sure the result in that time period is provably superior to China’s growth leading up to 2005?
And how many generations of “catch-up economies” does the author have to reference? … Two? Seems like a pretty tiny sample size to draw such a heavy conclusion. Difficult for me to assume the existence of some perpetual motion machine that tells us India’s growth will be even faster than China’s, and sub-Saharan Africa’s growth will be even faster than India’s.
I also question the author’s numbers. He claims China’s GDP per capita annual growth from 1978 - 2003 was 6.1% per year. The World Bank claims China’s growth from 1975-2000 was 8.1% per year (higher than the other countries named in the Wolf paper). There’s a slight difference in time frame measured, but not a flattering one from China’s perspective. The World Bank includes '75-'78 (pre-reforms) but leaves out '00-'03 (accelerated growth in China). And let’s not forget what we just heard this week: China’s GDP statistics for the last decade will be revised upwards, in order to account for a total 20% under-estimate of current GDP.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_gro_dur_197_200
But I really want to step away from the claim here that China’s GDP growth over the past 25 years is the highest ever recorded in human history amongst any society anywhere in the world. That’s a pretty difficult standard to hold up. I just noticed that, for example, Equitorial Guinea had something like a 2000%+ growth over the past 20 years. Good for the Guineans.
I never intended this to be a competition; not only because score-keeping is nearly impossible, but because it’s also meaningless. The game’s constantly changing, and no one gets a gold star for being “first”. China’s GDP growth is phenomenal, and that’s good enough. I’ll end with a repetition of Wolf’s conclusion:
[quote]
The bottom line is clear. Do not think China’s rapid growth is either extraordinary or a flash in the pan. It is neither. The social and political obstacles to China’s rapid growth are considerable. But the opportunity remains enormous. China’s economic boom could well be in its middle, not its end.[/quote]
