China's Population Decline is Da Bomb

Honestly open immigration won’t do much for most countries.

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The US would disagree. I think we solved our demographic problem in the last four years. Now it’s an integration problem.

Open? Define open immigration. US, Singapore and Australia all had massive but successful immigration policies. I’d argue Taiwan is doing it right too. Or at least it has the correct mindset.

Europe’s dilemma has very little to do with “immigration”. It’s refugees that are causing most problems and even it wouldn’t be as much of a problem if they had goods funding but they ruined their economies too. No money and a large population of unskilled, emotionally scarred moochers is not a good combo.

It wouldn’t be enough even if literally the whole population of those countries moved to China. China’s population is projected to lose 150 million by 2050 and 800 million by 2100.

The UK is in a similar situation.

Be very wary about population predictions, they change rapidly.

Long term predictions maybe but the next 20-30 years are set in stone. It’s not like people suddenly appear out of nowhere. Especially when it comes to workforce, even if they start popping out kids starting today, it’s gonna be 20 years until they can contribute to the economy.

Well, the population decline in developed countries came as a bit of a shock, did it not?

It shouldn’t have. More money, fewer kids.

A degree of, admittedly logical, hindsight. Perhaps you spotted the obvious 30 years ago. I worry about my memory, but I’m pretty sure you would have been an outlier 30 years ago.

Well my siblings married young and made multiple mista— had children. I waited until my 30s, so maybe. :thinking:

I haven’t read this in detail, but to be fair the UN weren’t far off with overall numbers. A little high, but close enough. Very wrong, at least from a quick glance, with numbers by region:

https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_1990_world_population_prospects-1990_revision.pdf

So I have to read this? I’ve been asked to do a lot today!

Factfulness, the demographic book, said a lot of this. Peter Zeihan has been harping on it forever.

It only required a quick glance from me.

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I don’t think anyone following the demographics was shocked by the population decline. The ever decreasing birth rates were a surprise to most though. They expected them to plateau long ago.

Which numbers? From what I can see China’s projections are very close to actual outcomes. Can you tell us where you want us to look?

I’m no expert. I thought 1990 was an interesting starting date as global growth rate accelerated to a peak that year (with hindsight).

In some ways, China is a victim of their own success. They got rich from cheap manufacturing and it’s hard to transition from that and keep the economy strong at such a large scale.

China is capable of high quality manufacturing that could sustain the difficult transition with higher wages but it’s hard when your reputation is cheap and low quality.

They successfully educated the masses in really a short time but now the young and educated don’t want to work the cheap jobs.

This is will a huge challenge for China now because previously the state could intervene in many issues but this one is really tough for even an authoritarian government to solve quickly.

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I think China is a classic example of how centrally controlled economies inevitably fail over time. The Soviet Union was an economic success in the 1930s.

Very questionable at best, but yeah, better than under the zar (not a difficult feat).

It was generally considered economically successful at the time.