China's Population Decline is Da Bomb

Well, some of them did. But not the laborers who did most of the building and manufacturing. Seems China will get old before it gets rich

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Well according to the CCP, some people will get rich first and others will follow. All part of the plan.

I wonder if this is one reason Xi is trying to move backwards. It’s easier for him to then blame the rich later on. I’ve been seeing more people in China wanting communism back.

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The trouble is that China, as a whole, is far less rich than Japan was (and South Korea and Taiwan are) when the population fall began. Most people I’ve read on this topic (who know way more than I do about demography / population studies) look at this situation with alarm. If anything, however, this is an own-goal with Beijing’s one child policy helping to lead to this situation . . .

Guy

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Hmmm.
Considering the “over-supply” of men due to 1-child policy, either the large amount of pickings is pathetic or the women themselves are. hard to tell.

There is also the cultural aspect of girls basically transferring to be indentured servants of the husbands and their parents, who might not treat them well

This is a Chinese custom that also explains why some Taiwanese girls don’t want to marry their boyfriends (a few have said to me, personally, they won’t marry their BF because of his parents)

I can understand people who aren’t in a hurry to marry just anyone, I’m not married for reasons. Can people be too picky? Not sure, why settle for something as important as marriage?

https://archive.is/CKXe9

Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist in obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a critic of China’s birth restrictions, has long argued the situation is even worse than official data suggests. Yi believes China’s population actually started shrinking years ago, based on birth estimates pieced together from other available data, such as school enrollment and the number of vaccines for newborns.

“All of China’s population policies for decades have been based on erroneous projections,” Yi said. “China’s demographic crisis is beyond the imagination of Chinese officials and the international community.”

Once a generation of young people has made up their minds, it’s hard to change them, said Cai Yong, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

It’s possible fertility rates could now increase with official messages and policies promoting bigger families to a newer generation, said Cai, but “if it’s going to happen, it’s not going to happen in the short term.”

And that’s a top down mistake of epoch proportions.

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Our friends in the UK aptly call that an “own goal.” :doh:

Guy

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The fun part, because they sooo smart, is the Russian connection. :laughing:

What is the “Russian connection” here?

Guy

Check out the China economy thread. An economist (I think) makes the claim that as a result of the population fiasco, the size of China’s economy will NEVER catch up to the US. Big change from what many were saying just 2-3 years ago even.

Edit. Here is the article (doesn’t embed for some reason).

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/chinas-population-decline-getting-close-irreversible

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A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

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Nice. Thank you.

A birth number of about 9 million translates roughly into a total fertility rate (TFR)[2] of about 1.0 in China. Or, put another way, China is heading in the direction of South Korea (with an estimated TFR of 0.72 in 2023) and is facing a far worse population drop than Japan, which started its demographic transition much earlier than others in East Asia in the mid-1990s. It benefited from a rapidly growing China, whose demand for Japanese exports and investment sustained Japan’s economy as domestic demand slowed down.

Biggest flash in the pan economy in history. You’d think after 10,000 years of glorious Chinese history they would’ve figured this top down boom bust keep 80% of your population dirt poor shit didn’t work. But whatever, keep eating soup with chopsticks, ya dummies.

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Perhaps a bit early to go full on with gloating?

Be patient, bide your time, and all that jazz.

Guy

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I take zero pleasure in hundreds of millions of people enslaved by greed and arrogance. .

Mixed together with hypernationalism and shrug-of-the-shoulders genocide, it’s not a great scene is it.

Guy

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At least they have a megalomaniac leader who holds more power than any one person in history running the show.

I know if I were Chinese in China I’d join the CCP right quick. The rest is fodder or fertilizer.

I don’t think this is a great situation for anyone, frankly.

Guy

not quite there yet, the guy with the big pimple on the chin was beyond that. But maybe we’ll get there in time.

no insurance at all, might be even worse at times. no one is safe but HIM.

No idea?

I’m going back to Egypt time, btw.