It can happen tomorrow but probably wont … although it will happen in the near future … horror story? Horror yes, but not a story, accor ding to some economics gurus it’s a possible scenario and than it would be doomsday …
The human race is a remarkable entity. If it can withstand disease, war and other global catastrophies I’m more than sure it can ride out the collapse of the dollar and all the scaremongering that goes with it.
so where’s mr Soros? retired already?
One of the best insurance policies a person could ever have is to have a plot of land somewhere and the knowledge to grow/raise your own food.
That and a big fucking gun.
Gold, baby, gold!!!
The dollar will fall more. It has to. They printed so much money in the past decade.
I would have put money on it going down some months back and it went and got stronger.
How can you sort it out?
If the dollar collapses it would have to be because the US economy has collapsed. In that case we’re all f***ed!!! (Think 1929)
Not much chance of that happening though…
The US dollar will contunue to fluctuate as long as a.) the US is involved in Iraq, and b.) the Republicans are in control… (IMHO)
And by fluctuate I mean up and down slightly, not significantly.
In the long term it will probably gain in strength some, although it remains to be seen if it will outdo the Euro.
All in all I think we’re rather safe. And if in doubt, buy gold (not now, 'cos the gold price is too damn high), diamonds and property. And if all goes to hell in a handbag… Relax. You’re in Taiwan. What’s the worse that could happen? (Except China of course… :raspberry:
The worst that could happen would be a depression.
But that’s not as serious as the possibility of the US suddenly disappearing as a world power. As much as everyone hates how the US goes around being a political bully and at the same time a self-righteous meddler, without the stability of having a world power the potential for war and chaos would be terrifying.
[quote=“puiwaihin”]The worst that could happen would be a depression.
But that’s not as serious as the possibility of the US suddenly disappearing as a world power. As much as everyone hates how the US goes around being a political bully and at the same time a self-righteous meddler, without the stability of having a world power the potential for war and chaos would be terrifying.[/quote]
In case of a depression, buy banks and Philip Morris, now Altria.
5 years after the crash of '29 most dividend paying stocks were even steven.
“Depression” is a word that means much emotionally to people, but not much financially. Unless of course you get laid off. But that is doubtful in Taiwan.
You guys know that the US is staying afloat through the buying of US dollars by foreign countries … the US has a zillion dollars foreign debt at the moment and it increases every second by 18,000 US$, that the US is borrowing three billion dollars per day from foreign countries …
Can you imagine that China is financing the US so that the US is able to buy Chinese made goods …
Right now economist agree that a collapse is possible but that it wont be sudden … but they also agree that the US dollar is going to lose it’s ‘global standard’ status within 10 years …
And right now, nobody tries to think about what would happen while they know it will …
One of the scenarios states that the dollar will go down to 1.7 to the Euro ... and that then the market will cancel all trading in the dollar and the EU will set a fixed exchange rate of 1.17 to the Euro, which in term will anger the US and Bush? or the president at that time will cut all ties with the rest of the world. You know his words, you are with us or against us … well the world will be against him and the US. The dollar will be passe, good enough to be sold at an antiques store as a collectors item …
Can you imagine the look of glee on the face of US exporters if the dollar fell in a huge way. They would have a free for all.
But, that would strengthen the US economy and strengthen the dollar.
[quote=“Ironman”]Can you imagine the look of glee on the face of US exporters if the dollar fell in a huge way. They would have a free for all.
But, that would strengthen the US economy and strengthen the dollar.[/quote]
Funny how that happens, eh… Reminds one somewhat of a see-saw…
Be thankful that I don’t get paid in US dollars…
the US put saddam in power. and kept him there a long time. why did they take him out? because he stopped trading in US dollars and was accepting Euros only. there can be no accepted threat to the power of the petrodollar.
now, IRAN is talking about starying its own oil bourse and…you guessed it…trading in euros.
any takers on what is gonna happen within the next three years?
sadly, wars are good for the economy and my little firm is having a record year…selling to the military industrial complex is profitable.
If the US dollar collapses you might end up getting paid in renminbi!
There’s no need to worry about the collapse of the US dollar from the supply side as long as they can export the inflationary effects of printing more US dollars. If oil continues to be priced in dollars we’re all pretty safe. China and Japan have too many dollars to let it fall a lot in a short space of time. It’s in all central banks’ interests to maintain a stable dollar. I have just worked out on the back of a packet of Rothmans that it would take China ten years to switch out of dollars and into a basket of other currencies. China knows it has years of low-return income from all its US bonds and the government says it is hedging against a decline in the US dollar. It hasn’t told us how you hedge US$600bn-and-rising but I know Deng did a great line in Harlequin mice.
What other reserve/medium of exchange currency can the world use? The euro’s out as the Europeans can’t agree on the colour of shit, and the renminbi is still controlled, and in any case a fairly high-risk bet.
Conventional logic says “buy gold” but the gold bugs have been wrong so many times before…
The only sensible answer is to get paid in beer and take the middleman out of the work-money-beer transaction.
I don’t see the Chinese economy going anywhere but up in the next decade. Owning renminbi might not be as risky as you suppose.
The point of having money in any currency is using it wisely; the type of investments are much more important than the currency it is held in.
That’s why I’m praying for online trading accounts in foreign countries that individual foreigners can get into, in their own currencies.
If the dollar collapses the oil will be paid in euros … imagine, that the US needs to pay the Middle east and goods from china in euros … than the US is in deep shit … eventually they need to re-open their domestic wells … the only thing helping is that the US would have enough oil domestically so they could cover the complete demand … but is it?
Hey … another thought … the US is owned by foreign powers … money wise
… next … the US will introduce the euro … no one wants to be paid in US$ anymore …
I don’t see the Chinese economy going anywhere but up in the next decade. Owning renminbi might not be as risky as you suppose.[/quote]
I agree, but it is still just a forecast. And if the US currency goes tits-up who knows what will happen to RMB-denominated assets?
On the other hand, I’m trying to buy a house in a cheap-but-about-to-be-developed part of China and I forecast the value of the house will double each year and the real value of the renminbi will go up 10% a year. I couldn’t give a monkey’s about the US dollar. Hope it goes down just enough to avoid Total Global Meltdown.
Along those lines…
[quote]China signals switch in reserves away from dollar
By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai and Andrew Balls in Washington
Published: January 5 2006 20:13 | Last updated: January 6 2006 02:43
Dollar and renminbiChina indicated on Thursday it could begin to diversify its rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar and government bonds