Coronavirus - China

Are your contact still confident China has everything under control, @OrangeOrganics ?! Northeast China scrambles to curb new COVID surge | Taiwan News | 2021/01/05

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Of course there are still outbreaks and a lot of data they give is false(this is normal with everything in China). In general they have it under control and have the mechanism in place to deal with the outbreaks. At least they are good at protecting first tier cities.

It’s a totalitarian surveillance state who knows where everyone is through GPS and facial recognition. The CCP machine is perfectly suited to dealing with crisis. They can lockdown whole provinces by force in days and test whole cities.

But my rationale that it’s generally OK, is that we rarely ever get imported cases from China, despite a large number of incoming flights. I don’t trust what their government says, I’m just looking at the numbers. There was one imported case from Hangzhou a few months ago and people started freaking out.


They also wouldn’t have been promoting domestic travel in the October holiday and subsidizing it , if knew actually were still major outbreaks everywhere. They are trying to take advantage of the situation to take economic lead over the US and increase presence in developing world, what would be the motivation to derail that ?


@SuperS54 what’s your rationale for saying otherwise.

See previous response on this.

Right now it’s looking like CNY will effectively be cancelled!

The evidence on the ground.

OK , I just said there are clearly still outbreaks, but at the same time they have it under control.

If you are saying that China has sporadic outbreaks, then yeah. Too many variables, too many places to break the chain. But they in general have the mechanism and resources to deal with them.

If you are saying that over the last year that China has been dealing with major COVID outbreaks (like US and Europe) and lying about them, you are wrong.

Are you on the ground ? How you mean on the gro

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I’m with you on this, just based on what I’ve been seeing on WeChat from friends (both Chinese and foreign) living in China for at least the last 6 months. I don’t doubt that there are sporadic outbreaks, but life there seems to have pretty much returned to normal for the most part.

I seriously doubt that everybody I know is lying and posting fake photos of being out and about socializing and having business meetings etc., on government orders.


In winter the transmissibility seems to shoot up and also the new variant could be there now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggle to contain it in certain locations there. When they say X cases you can usually multiply by 10 or 100 to get true figure e.g. Wuhan.

I believe they never allowed much intercity travel through this entire year. My friend in Shandong was not permitted to enter Beijing for example (although a previous resident of Beijing).

The Chinese are all about saving face they don’t like to admit this stuff to foreigners.


Somewhat debatable!

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Sample of 1, my American friend just traveled from Xiamen to Shenzhen by train, straight out of 2-week quarantine. Then they changed the rules and made him quarantine another week in SZ.


Beijing has the strictest rules because the central govt is located there.


I heard that travel there had been restricted at some time but then was not. Have not looked into it in a few months.

Shanghai had been defined as a quarantine hub so thousands were doing their 2 week quarantine in Shanghai government facilities and then being issued with a “quarantine complete passport” however many provinces and/or counties, particularly the northern ones, refused to accept the “passports” as proof of being Covid free and insisted on local quarantine, messed up quite a few travel plans!

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Yes Shanghai and Beijing they will do everything to keep those places safe. They never locked down.

I haven’t heard the travel restriction between cities stuff but know rules for foreigners different for locals. Know that you need to download new app and register details and tests to get health code for each city/province.

But domestic travel is fucking booming in China, I know this factually from work.

I just generally think people don’t like to think too much and get their news from shit places, like Breitbart or FLG media. The starting point is that the CCP is bad (true) and always lie ( also true) and from that they are happy with whatever half truths, fake stories and exaggeration that confirms their favored narrative. It’s a global phenomenon and how we ended up with what happened in DC this week.

It’s also kind of a contradiction. The CCP is a ruthless, technologically advanced surveillance state with little concern for human rights (which is true) , while at the same time people here seem to doubt their ability to survey and control. So they kind of see it as a shitty surveillance state, which means less to worry about.

The CCP :

  1. Has the perfect conditions and technology for controlling the virus. They have facial recognition and surveillance of all their citizens. To do anything in China you need the health code app, which is also their track and trace device. If you come in contact with anyone who had the virus, they know immediately and force you into quarantine and basically lock you out of society.

The punishment for not complying are too great. One lady lied about her symptoms at the airport and they put her in prison for seven years.

  1. They have everything riding on COVID success. They are using this situation to get ahead of the US economically and also show their superiority to the developing world.

If anyone had been watching, the economy was slowing I’m China at the end of 2019 and Xi was really under pressure. Rumors were that a lot of party elders were very unhappy with the direction of the country. COVID has given him a huge boost and national pride is in overload.

They have too much riding to fuck this up.

Same with the vaccines. It’s a big part of CCP strategy I Africa to use vaccine diplomacy to get partnership and infrastructure deals. A bad vaccine or health scare could cost the state hundreds of billions and would be impossible to cover up.

Does China have covid outbreaks: Yes

Does the CCP have COVID “under control”: Yes

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There are many people in Shanghai who do the 2 week quarantine and then the community committee in their building request they do another two weeks of home quarantine and you basically cant say no.

Both Shanghai and Beijing had several lockdowns in 2020. The Shunyi District in Beijing is currently heavily restricted with complete lockdown in some residential complexes. One district I deal with in Shanghai is in lockdown since yesterday. Areas of Heilongjiang, Shanxi, inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Sichuan, Fujian, Guangdong to name but a few are under lockdown and/or travel restriction.

No. As above, Shijiazhuang has just gone into complete lockdown and smaller areas throughout China are under restrictions. Most of the lockdowns they have are not being reported in the media only the huge ones such as the current situation in Hebei.

And yet plane tickets are ~20% cheaper than this time last year! Localized travel within provinces is certainly up, primarily due to the restrictions on travelling outside of provinces, let alone outside of China.

Shanghai locked down? When?

Yes there are outbreaks and lockdowns. But you seem to be confusing lockdowns with “out of control”. China is locking down the whole province at the beginning of an outbreak. They say 120 new cases in Hebei, so we can multiply that by at least ten. Its still nothing compared to Europe and America.
They have every tool, and lever at their disposal to control it.

Thats not true. Hainan is booming, and can send you the figures if you want. The company I work with in Shanghai, they all went away the last week to different places: Yunnan, Harbin, Hainan. They could be lying to me though

Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t believe them up to like July. But we aren’t getting imported cases from China, the economy is boooooming and everyone I know there is perfectly fine and traveling all the time

February 10th 2020 was the first one, they’ve been having localized 小區封閉管理 ever since then as part of their “3 rings” policy. As per previous, one district I deal with went into lockdown yesterday, it’s certainly not the only Shanghai district currently locked down.

Go ahead, although Hainan island is hardly representative of China as a whole and it’s the closest thing to international travel available.

Don’t believe them now either! Q3 and Q4 numbers for China were good, but lower than the adjusted expectations. Everyone I know there is also perfectly fine other than lockdowns, travel restrictions and being subject to the whims of the CCP . Then again I know considerably more people in the rest of the world and only 2 of those were confirmed with Covid and both are perfectly fine, the rest are also perfectly fine and travelling all the time.