Coronavirus Open Thread 2021

Brian, you appear not to understand the basic nature of a prediction. I’m trying to be polite here. Can you keep the shitposting to a basic minimum?

Why can’t you admit your predictions were way off base and very likely plain wrong.

There was no immunity from previous infections and there was never any evidence for that.

Not is it remotely likely that there’s a vast pool of undetected infections out there that is somehow driving up the CFR in comparison to other countries…Taiwan actually has far better contact tracing than the vast majority of countries, mostly because the incidence is still VERY low.

Once it gets to an incidence of 1000/100k they pretty much give up contact tracing .


noun [ C or U ]

UK /prɪˈdɪk.ʃən/ US /prɪˈdɪk.ʃən/

A statement about what you think will happen in the future:

You can click the link for the meaning of ‘future’ also, if you like. You’re welcome.

So your predictions have been wrong so far . So you aren’t right all the time ergo other people might not be so stupid after all.
You’ve shitpost a million times about the experts and the scientists and the idiots .
They’re all wrong. What about you ?

Yup, click the link Brian. The word ‘future’ means ‘not now’. Unless you hopped in your time machine and figured out I’m wrong, we’ll have to just wait.

It takes over six months for antibody levels to become undetectable. 100% of confirmed COVID cases in the study (including asymptomatic) had detectable antibodies, even three months after infection, and the immune portion of population just don’t??

You are grasping at straws. Your math doesn’t work out. Somehow, millions of people in Taiwan were exposed to COVID, developed b-cells and t-cells specifically designed to attack COVID proteins, produced lots of antibodies, showed zero COVID symptoms, and then all the antibodies disappear and are just totally undetectable – and that’s why the case numbers are staying low. What?

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I’m just suggesting it’s possible. If you think it’s not possible, then you need to come up with a more plausible hypothesis. However, as mentioned, we won’t know who’s right until a few months hence, because both your hypothesis and mine (if you have one) relates to a future scenario.

AHAHAHAHAHA, dude, its possible that my mom got impregnated by an alien dominatrix and the resulting abomination is the cause for COVID and also AIDS and also brexit – but you don’t see me here trying to convince everyone its true, because its ridiculous.

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Sigh. I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything. We’re clearly just talking past each other.

Let’s talk about possibility. Let’s be conservative and say that a 25% natural immunity rate would do a lot of good and keep the known infections and deaths relatively low.

That’s six million people in Taiwan. What are the chances that six million people in Taiwan were exposed to COVID, showed no major symptoms, stayed out of the hospital and show no results on antibody tests? What are the chances that just one of those SIX MILLION people exposed to COVID would get really sick, lose their sense of taste, have crazy coughing fits, maybe get put on a ventilator?

What is the chance that this statistical anomaly ONLY happened in Taiwan, nowhere else in the world.

What’s surreal is here in Oregon there were 230 new cases and seven deaths yesterday in a population less than a fourth of Taiwan’s in a land area seven times greater yet all pandemic restrictions are being lifted todeay except for a few minor ones. No masks required anywhere except in airports and hospitals. No distancing any longer. There was never any contact tracing, quarantining, or organized testing and there will be even less now.



Not sure if this info below adds to the current discussion.

There’s been some studies that indicate some pre-immunity to COVID, even up to 50% of the population. In scientific circles this is apparently called ‘cross-reactivity’ or ‘cross-immunity.’

A typical statement from these studies: “In conclusion, it is now established that SARS-CoV-2 pre-existing immune reactivity exists to some degree in the general population." (Ref.)

A few more studies show similar results:

Epitope-resolved profiling of the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response identifies cross-reactivity with endemic human coronaviruses

Pre-existing T-cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in unexposed healthy controls in Ecuador, as detected with a COVID-19 Interferon-Gamma Release Assay - ScienceDirect

Preexisting and de novo humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in humans

Singapore scientists uncover SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in recovered COVID-19 & SARS patients, and in uninfected individuals

Anyway, at least I learned something new today :slight_smile:

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I’m in Seattle, same story. Is the idea that since vaccines are so highly available, 78 percent I think of Seattle adults are vaccinated, that those that aren’t are taking their own risks? After being back here for three weeks, I think the US may be infecting my mind, because I’m starting to agree with that. Dont get me wrong, I still personally wear a mask inside and in crowds but maybe there is some merit in the idea that society needs to open up and people, in some ways, will have to decide for themselves given their vaccination status what risks they are willing to take. I really don’t know what is right,but everything can’t stay closed forever, at some point we have to find a way to live with this virus.


In Australia, and probably NZ, that sort of number would see the Government requisition all Toilet Paper for their own use, as well as a Wuhan Style Lockdown (though they don’t have the troops to enforce it). As it is now, some double digit days of new cases (no deaths for months) has them in a blind panic.


As an Aussie, this is painfully true.

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Covid restrictions are now officially over here in Oregon. 63% of the population has been fully vaccinated and 7% more partially vaccinated. In anotther week 70% of the population will be fully vaxed.

The numbers are beginning to plateau though so maybe 30% of the population will remain unvaxed. Given that I’d say going commando now is probably the right move so we can kill off that 30% as quickly as possible.

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Eh not out of the woods

So maybe still keep up the guard?

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We’ll be keeping up the guard forever at this rate. I like the new plan better. Let the guard down completely. Thin the herd asap.

All 24 unvaccinated people at birthday party contract COVID.

Six vaccinated people at a recent party in a suburb of Sydney, Australia were the only ones who didn’t test positive for COVID-19 according to health officials.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports that all of the people who tested positive after attending the birthday celebration in West Hoxton were infected with the delta strain of the coronavirus.


LOL. My man, you have been beating your chest for god knows how many months about the “experts” being “wrong” about the virus and that this is all a grand conspiracy! How does that not imply that you believe yourself to not only be an expert, but an “enlightened” expert? Delusions of grandeur much??


Those are some super interesting articles. Cross-reactive T cells reducing severity, from coronaviruses that cause the common cold. I hadn’t heard the idea that children had way more of these cross reactive cells because they are constantly getting mild coronavirus (not covid-19) infections being proposed as evidence for why children are generally less susceptible to COVID-19.

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