Coronavirus Open Thread 2021

As per hansioux’s fagpacket estimate (10:1 asymptomatic), somewhere between 100 and 300 million must have had the virus at some point. 20-odd million confirmed cases represents only a small fraction of the true number of cases. Do you disagree?

No, it wouldn’t. It’s dragged on like this precisely because people hold this sort of superstitious belief. It sounds superficially plausible, but the fact that humans have to do human things means that it’s physically impossible, and that means infection spreads relentlessly. More slowly, but relentlessly.

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Yeah, that’s what flatten the curve is all about. It also wouldn’t spread relentlessly if it is spreading more slowly. Please go watch any R0 simulation videos on youtube.

Also, if wearing surgical mask is superstitious, then I guess our doctors have been superstitious for a long time.

US reaches a new grim death toll but it is more than just numbers

And it is not a simple binary matter of surviving or dying from the coronavirus


Great news about J and J vaccine, highly effective across all variants in one shot.


It appears that the Florida model wasn’t too shabby.
Here’s an American Inst for Economic Research article, comparing California & Florida.

There’s scarcely any evidence at all that the Cali model of lockdown has been beneficial to its people. Florida has kept schools open, businesses open, and the predicted monstrous CoVid death-toll that they would suffer as a consequence … well, it never materialised.


In the meantime, the UK continues with a new line of advertising. Someone needs to cut through all this bull and serve up something different. Let’s keep going, but to where?

30,000 deaths seems pretty monstrous.

There may be somothing to this, but could also be cherry picking. And the article has some inaccuracies. Complete lockdown is not true at all. Most retail stores and even hair and mail salons are open in our area, and most restaurants are open for takeout or outdoor dining. People still have huge gatherings, and in Santa Ana, which has a high infection rate, I have heard that people tend to act like there is no pandemic (second hand information). I saw a beach boot camp last weekend with people jammed up next to each other and not a mask to be seen. Where we live, schools have been open in a hybrid for months. My wife’s school has half-size classes that go full day, open since late September. So it as not as black and white as it seems. Then there are the Dakotas, which have the least restrictions and some of the highest infection rates.


Thanks for the reply. It’s good to hear on-the-spot reports, and nothing in this siuation is black and white. But there does seem to be a tide of anger / irritation rising against Newsom (California governor) and his measures to ‘control’ the pandemic. Folks are trying to get him recalled.

As for the 30,000 deaths : doesn’t seem that much more than California, when adjusted for population.

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I am not in favor of a recall. I don’t know that anyone could have done any better in a new situation where competing voices undercut leadership. We live in a very red area, and the county sheriff announced they basically would not be enforcing lockdown measures. Also, and off topic, California recall requires just a simple majority and the recalled encumbant is not eligible to run again. But for the interim election the person with the most votes win. So Gavin could lose with 49% of the vote and be replaced by someone with 48% of the vote, since more than 2 candidates can run.

All that aside, for various reasons, lockdown execution was not ideal in California. And when Florida lifted its restrictions, case counts did go up. I don’t know enough about state demographics to compare Florida and California, but I would not draw conclusions about effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions based on a comparison just these 2.

There is also the issue of a more contagious variant in California which would cause a spike in numbers


In Europe it’s the same. Lockdowns actually increased overall death in many countries - and not even very sure how much they decreased coronavirus death…

It’s a shame everyone is looking at coronavirus deaths, instead of excess death! Excess death in Austria last year 5%. In Sweden 2%. Now what is even worse - likely the excess death come from younger people compared to those few lives saved from coronavirus death…

It’s pretty clear - strict lockdowns without going to Zero covid cases are doing one thing only. Crashing the economy and creating excess death/suicides and so on…

Here are the excess death for Europe:
And it’s quite clear - that countries with the fewest measures like Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark fared best! People get tired of lockdowns, and especially of politicians lying to them over and over again… (well those 4 countries are also the only ones adding Vitamin D to nutrition - but even excluding them strict lockdowns with people still going to work over long time do not seem to work as can be seen from Italy or other countries with crazy long strict lockdowns.

Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, England (not UK!), Belgium and a bit less Netherlands, Austria and Switzerland had significant excess death.

Norway, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Wales, Ireland, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Hungary, Denmark did not have significant excess death. Partly even less death than to be assumed.

Now the second group of countries actually had much less measures than the first group…

Fear is the problem, and the constant mentioning of coronavirus deaths count (everyone who was tested positive 30-60 days before death - no matter how he died) vs looking at the far more important excess death. Not including how many excess death will be caused by the lockdowns in the future due to people having lost their jobs, businesses destroyed, education systems closed, and so on…

If they published tables of QALY excess by country - this would skew the table even worse in favour of light restrictions vs heavy lockdowns.

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I know ppl in California and they are going skiing and to the beach. Some lockdown !!

I’m pretty sure that’s complete BS.

Chary after chart will show you deaths going down after lockdowns .

And annual excess deaths in 2020 were way up in countries that failed miserably to control covid

Reference our previous UK discussion which nailed that down firmly.

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Yes, still lots of beachgoing. That never really stopped here.

“Let’s keep going?”

That’s not very inspiring, is it? It does imply just trudging on to one’s doom.

I prefer “Keep Calm and Carry On”. IMO the EU needs to send the Brits an emergency shipment of ramrods to shove up their backsides. And perhaps some lip-stiffening ointment.

Italy did the first lockdown - plus it was like the strictest in Europe. Still they have the highest excess death! Besides UK all nordic countries fared pretty well, but had much less strict lockdowns compared to Central Europe/Souther Europe.

Just look at the countries based on excess death. There is clearly no correlation compared to the lockdowns. Small measures (no alcohol, no huge gatherings, but schools open and so on) seem to have caused less excess death compared to strict lockdowns!

Yes lockdowns work against coronavirus death. But it seems strict lockdowns are counter productive even for coronavirus death. And collateral damage causes excess death in other fields. It’s scary that already in 2020 the excess death seem to have been higher for stricter lockdown vs simply some restrictions! Because most excess death/collateral damage will follow later (less education, shorter lifetime, and so on).

Don’t look at the damn coronavirus death tables, look at excess death. That’s the reliable measure for lockdowns or not.

So you want more excess deaths without the lockdowns. Good for you.

We debated this to ‘death’ about the UK already here . Conclusions

  1. Lockdowns have a dramatic effect in reducing cases and deaths when implemented. Don’t force me to post up chart after chart AGAIN.

  2. UK showed significant excess deaths for 2020 that cannot really be attributed to other causes except coronavirus.

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Let me take a wild stab in the dark.

Places that had strict lockdown were already riddled with the virus when they did it?


Thought so.

Since you don’t provide any facts or figurea for anything you say…Welll…I’m off to lunch lol.

And there you have it. Entrenched positions, dug in.
Only open warfare remains, but I, for one, don’t have the heart or the energy.

Lockdown adherents insist that lockdown works.
Lockdown secptics argue otherwise.

Hopefully lockdown will come to an end soon, and we can all start arguing over vaccination passports.

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