Coronavirus - Taiwan 2021

Prices. And Costa Rica doesn’t even bother with a military and makes public happiness a matter of national policy.

Even if it wasn’t dangerous with the level of control there’s no joy in it. I’d rather get take away and find a park.

I knew it wasn’t just grannies serving intimately like Bloomberg said.

People here were guessing all morning. Same thing in my mind, money doesn’t change it. Also, crypto isn’t money.

Why? She’s currently the Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Anyway, better get on with some work.

image

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Have you walked through a back alley in Wanhua at night? There are plenty of non-granny types.

Based on previous spot inspections of the parlors, often referred to as “grandpa shops” due to the advanced age of the clientele, there are at least 80 foreign women employed in these venues.

I’m finding out about a side of Taiwan I never knew existed.

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including the backsides of other countries!

A certain foreign blogger stated that this is the time where Taiwan sins from an industrialist society come to roster. And I agree. We had said before how the “runaway” foreign laborers were a weak spot, out if the safety of the national insurance scheme. And I also remember reading about both runaways or weekend belle de jour types who worked in Taipei while having legal positions down South. Now this gap created by the explotation of human beings comes to bite all of society in the proverbial butt.

They are the fire that will consume the kindle made of the corpses of the workers not allowed to work from home, deemed essential but not given proper equipment, the kids that have nowhere to go as parents work all day and tend to their bosses wishes at night…

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17 posts were split to a new topic: How is Costa Rica?

Nope, and why would I?, and more to the point, neither had the reporter from Bloomberg. By his/her description, a teahouse was a place where old men went to be served intimately by women of a similar age. That’s a paraphrase, but that was the sense of it.

Hey people, stay focused! This is the “Coronavirus - Taiwan” thread!

Guy

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Sorry, hehe.

Today I got off the Shilin MRT and saw a bunch of people pointing to something inside a few cars down. Old Taiwanese lady walks out carrying some rolling luggage and meanders along the platform. Cop was waiting outside the train, and then together along with a security guard they stand a ways away from her to accost here. She slowly gets a mask out of her luggage, puts it on, then takes the escalator down and moves it below her chin on the way down. Puts it back up to walk outside the MRT, then just removes it completely again.

Cop didn’t follow her or do anything, I would be surprised to hear these fines are being heavily enforced if they just let someone go who was riding the whole MRT maskless.

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I agree completely with what @DunderMifflin has been trying to tell you for a couple of days (I wrote something similar before, too) - these curves and projections that you’re posting aren’t meaningful.

You have 10 data points, of which the first 5 or so are close to zero because Taiwan was doing essentially no testing on those days and hadn’t detected the outbreak yet, followed by 4-5 days of relatively very limited (compared to other countries) targeted testing around Wanhua and detected clusters. The first 5 underestimated data points skew the fit, and the last 5 data points are highly dependent on which particular sets of potential contacts Taiwan decides to devote its limited testing resources to for that particular day (or the previous day since 2 p.m., I suppose).

The basic assumption (and requirement) for preparing these kinds of curves is that the number of detected cases is representative of the number of actual cases in the population - that’s necessary for any discussion of the presence or absence of exponential growth and “flattening the curve”. This assumption simply isn’t true here owing to the lack of testing, and the 5 most recent days of “high” numbers (for Taiwan) are subject to the normal variation you see for this kind of data with a limited, non-random sample set - they go up and down a bit depending on who gets tested, number of tests completed that day, clusters recently detected, etc.

Too many people here are relying too much on the day-to-day variation of the numbers, as though it matters all that much whether 300 cases one day goes to 200 cases or 400 cases the next day. It doesn’t. The important thing is the overall multiday trend (which we don’t have yet), and all the undetected cases that are “escaping” all over the island to seed the virus elsewhere (which won’t be detected for another few days).

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Changhua, I’m really worried about this area becoming more of an epicenter. They kind of do their own thing there and other places in the south and I don’t see them doing so well following covid guidelines.

Will probably continue to be a problem in that area and it should be a huge focus.

But at least that maverick guy might just decide to do his own thing again and test a shitload of people to see the results…

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This was the site of the first brilliant contact tracing efforts in the early days when that infected guy arrived from China at RMQ.

The authorities there will have their work cut out for them now.

Guy

I’ll take what I can get. Have you ever watched a sporting event, like a football game or something?

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I have - why? You can take what you want, but it still isn’t particularly meaningful at this stage whether the numbers go up a bit or down a bit from one day to the next (although I appreciate that some people anxious about this may find the latter reassuring).

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Should daily cases not be released?

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Because you could make the same argument about every goal in the game*, doesn’t mean that it isn’t meaningful when my team scores

Of course time will tell, like in a game, but unlike a sporting event this actually impacts my life and I’d like to keep track somehow based on the new information every day

Nobody is claiming that these projections are accurate, quite the opposite is actually the point.

*edit: except the endgame, of course

I didn’t say that - I think they should be released. But I also think they should be taken for what they are and not obsessed over or used to make meaningless projections from insufficient data. And they definitely shouldn’t be used to make statements like “more cases today - the situation is getting worse!” or “fewer cases today - Taiwan is flattening the curve!”

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