The problem is that the input numbers you’re using don’t mean what they would need to mean for the model to work. If all the PCR machines in Taiwan malfunction tomorrow and there’s no cases detected, does that mean that there’s actually no cases and we’ve flattened the curve? Of course not.
A more realistic scenario (and what I see as the main issue): The CDC and medical staff have to decide each day who to test on the basis of contact tracing, currently identified clusters, who shows up at clinics and hospitals, and symptoms. They don’t have enough resources to test everyone. So let’s say they decide on a particular day to test all of the staff at a particular hospital/students at a particular school/guests at a particular wedding. Depending on the choices made there, the precautions in place at the location, a fair bit of randomness/luck, and a whole load of other stuff, they may detect many cases or they may detect few cases, which determines the number of new cases identified that day…but that doesn’t mean that the number of cases in Taiwan (i.e., the thing we’re trying to represent) has gone up or down.
Why are they saying the R0 value of this is 5.5, when everything else I’ve seen about the UK variant puts it at 2 to 3? 5.5 is like smallpox contagious.
And here, dear reader, is how the story ends, with a humble man who sought no more than to escape the shackles of imposed confinement, as any man would, but herewith left to suffer the endless solitude of a self inflect term.
I used that for the first time tonight at a Hi-Life too.
It would have been cool if the staff had had the foresight to put the QR code somewhere other than the automatic door, such that the QR code doesn’t slide out of the way each time a customer tries to scan it, but otherwise I was pleasantly surprised.
The 7-11 I went to had a trestle setup just behind the automatic doors, so that as you were aligning your phone and trying to get the shot of the QR code the door would start closing forcing you to jump back and try again, there was a small group of us trying to get in this way. At least in the end at the checkout they let me bleep my own beer.
I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone who voluntarily purchases that stuff. Unfortunately in the end the best option they had was that Orion beer, which I’m not sure was worth the risk of Covid exposure.
Translation is spotty but if I’m understanding this correctly, a court worker’s father went to Wanhua to purchase bamboo shoots and got the virus. Some of these cases really make it seem like Wanhua is teeming with virus.
Anything important, or just announcing the QR code/SMS system?