I’m not trying to start (or re-start) a pee-peeing contest; I’m just curious about what your (or anybody else’s) take might be about these two successive February 2020 tweets by the previously-mentioned epidemiologist:
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1231431400546500608
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1231431890999140353
The above two tweets were physically near the other Marc Lipsitch tweet I linked to earlier.
This, I think, is an abstract of the referenced study:
The abstract is dated August 8, 2007, so the article predates our current pandemic.