Coronavirus Vaccine in Taiwan - November/December 2021

So what are you subtracting? And why do you think this leads to a number that close to “herd immunity”?

Guy

People were saying 70% is herd immunity. We’re already at 66%. That’s breakneck speed in a matter of months.

Those people were wrong.

In Taiwan, we have roughly 8% of the population that’s under age (very rough approximation) and not eligible for vaccination. So that leaves about 25% of the population who have not been double vaxxed, for whatever reason. The authorities in Taiwan are pleading for people to get this done. They understand that if / when the virus again jumps the fence (today alone we have seven new omicron cases identified) we will collectively be in trouble.

Here’s an example from yesterday’s news:

Lee Ping-ing (李秉穎), convener of Taiwan’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), said Tuesday that the vaccination rate in Taiwan is not yet “ideal” and urged people to get vaccinated.

With an anticipated surge in arrivals coming to Taiwan for the Lunar New Year holiday, there is a risk variants of the COVID-19 virus could spread into the community, he said.

“Everyone should get vaccinated against COVID-19, not only to protect themselves, but also to protect our society from the spread of the virus,” he said.

Source: https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202112210021

Guy

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AMA says 70% is good. We’re good after 70%.

OK, OO. You just keep being you!

Guy

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The article you’ve linked says quite the opposite. And it’s from back in August, with then-scary, now almost-a-source-of-nostalgia Delta. Quoting from the article you’ve linked as your evidence, emphasis added:

Some epidemiologists have estimated that 70% of the worldwide population would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to establish herd immunity against the disease that’s already killed over 620,000 Americans. But, with the Delta variant driving up cases among the unvaccinated as well as causing breakthrough COVID-19 infections, the threshold for herd immunity now seems to be higher.

“I’ve stopped using the term,” said Dr. Hotez, noting that some groups, especially those with political agendas, are using unrealistically low herd-immunity estimates.

“People want to know what’s the threshold for herd immunity? What’s the percentage of people who have to be vaccinated?” said Dr. Liddell. “We can guess … but we get very different answers because probably the most complicated piece of it is that COVID is changing.

“The original lineage was thought to have a reproductive number of around two or three, so 1 minus 1 over 3 would be two-thirds, or 60% to 70% immunization or infection to create some kind of herd immunity,” said Dr. Hotez. “The problem, though, is the Delta variant [reproductive number] is much higher. Some say between five and eight. Others say between eight and nine, so we’re looking now at over 85% immunization rates for the entire U.S. population … which means that you’d have to pretty much vaccinate every adult and adolescent to make that happen.”

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Depending on how the % is obtained, presently Taiwan is at -

79% of the population with one dose, and 66% of the population with 2 doses (Fully Vaccinated). Assuming the ones with a single dose get the second, we will end up at around 80% of the total population Fully Vaccinated.

Taking out those Under 12 who are not currently eligible (around 8-10% of the population), Taiwan at present has 88% with a single dose and 73% with two doses. Assuming the ones with a single dose get the second, we will end up at around 90% of the eligible population Fully Vaccinated.

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I think its common with totalitarian states, people end up with poor critical thinking because of the education system. The party says 1+1=3, then all of the media says 1+1=3 and 1+1 becomes 3. Taiwan under the KMT was pretty much the same as China now.

The older generation in Taiwan have just not been taught to think critically.

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Yet the state is telling them: please get vaccinated! And many of them (relative to their age peers in the West) are not.

As always, this pandemic continues to expose fault lines that were already there . . .

Guy

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85%

Yeah we’re good.

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Yeah except we are not. :roll_eyes:

Guy

With Delta, the guess was over 85% for the TOTAL population for herd immunity. Omicron makes it worse. The post you have just quoted says we’re at only 79% of the total population with ONE dose, and 66% with two doses.

You’re both changing the goalposts and getting the math wrong.

And it’s all sort of a moot point - I’ve seen very little talk anywhere of herd immunity being achievable since Delta appeared (this Nature article from May 2021 says it’s probably out of reach). Lots of people are getting sick a second time. At one point, herd immunity was a theoretical possibility as a way out of this, but now, no, that’s very unlikely.

(And the terrifying part in Taiwan is how low the vaccination rate is amongst the elderly. They’re the ones who need it the most, and the virus is going to kill a lot of them.)

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Omicron is not very lethal.

Old people in Taiwan don’t cluster in nursing homes as much as they do in the US. More live with their kids and grandkids.

They’ve lived good, long, lives, so I’m less worried about them. And once they start dying en masse they’ll start getting the jab.

Unsure as yet. Hopefully, but certainly not something we can count on yet.

But note that you’ve changed the goalposts again, as well as the topic. This has nothing to do with your earlier insistence that we’re just about at herd immunity.

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The goalposts for herd immunity changed themselves.

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At that point, it will be too late. Which is exactly what LIA and I have been saying.

Guy

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If they want to risk their lives, that’s their business.

In the US we have a problem with unvaccinated people overrunning hospital beds. That’s a problem.

Taiwan won’t have that problem.

The problem is that there is also fake news papers on Line telling them that vaccines will make their heads explode.

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I now understand this comment much more than I did an hour ago. Sometimes there’s no point in engaging, is there?

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