Did anyone see this little blurb in today’s Taipei Times Online?
[quote]Any Chinese military action against Taiwan would receive the support and sympathy of the international community because Taipei provoked China, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party said. "Chen Shui-bian (
It’s going to put Chen Shui-bian in the history books, but probably not under the category he originally imagined.
I had nearly finished dinner in a Taibei restaurant on Monday when [url=http://www.google.com.tw/search?&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=%E6%9B%BE%E7%A5%A5%E9%90%B8]History Professor Zeng Xiangduo
Ah-Bien’s latest addition to the referendum, in which he calls for a demilitarized zone between China and Taiwan, is going to go over like a lead balloon. Does this man have no conception of reality?
Juba, you didn’t offer your opinion on Professor Zeng’s remarks. Poaogao, you only took a (well-deserved) stab at A-Bien. What do you really think will happen? I’m very interested in what people knowledgeable on this subject think.
If there is the slightest chance that China will attack, then why aren’t all of us buying airline tickets out of here?
the idea of a referendum is a threat to them, taiwan’s democracy is a threat to them, with the election coming the urge to bring out the old ham handed tactics is too strong to ignore. a referendum that doesn’t call for independence will not be a cause for war. china holds all the cards now. expect pressure like this as the norm rather than an abberration.
chen is pushing the envelope, a la Lee Deng-Hui. we may look back in a few years and say he was smart, or we may curse him, but you can’t expect “don’t rock the boat” to be everybody’s motto.
Tomas, if the slightest chance China could invade is making you nervous, how did you get here? 
not exactly new news.
[quote=“daltongang”]the idea of a referendum is a threat to them, Taiwan’s democracy is a threat to them, with the election coming the urge to bring out the old ham handed tactics is too strong to ignore. a referendum that doesn’t call for independence will not be a cause for war. China holds all the cards now. expect pressure like this as the norm rather than an abberration.
chen is pushing the envelope, a la Lee Deng-Hui. we may look back in a few years and say he was smart, or we may curse him, but you can’t expect “don’t rock the boat” to be everybody’s motto.
Tomas, if the slightest chance China could invade is making you nervous, how did you get here? not exactly new news.[/quote]
I appreciate the intelligent commentary. My use of the word “slightest” threw you off. I’m no rookie, and I’m not sitting here pooping my pants. I perceive a real escalation in the rhetoric lately. I have significant business interests here that affect no only my own economic well-being, but that of the companies I represent. I’ve got to stay tuned into what’s really going on. If there’s a blockade, it’s going to put a lot of people I know and like out of work.
What touched a nerve with me recently was the use of this phrasing by the CCP: “The Chinese government is not afraid of a delay in economic development, not afraid of not hosting the Olympics or the World Expo and not afraid of sacrificing [no matter] how many people.” Reminds me too much of TianAnMen. The folks in charge of things in Beijing don’t care much about human life. They probably care more about economic gains. I was also under the impression, based on foreign policy analysis pieces I’d read, that China wouldn’t do anything before the 2008 Olympics. The CCP seems to know what we’re all saying about the reasons why they wouldn’t attack Taiwan, because they countered all three of the key arguments with this statement.
If you’re telling me that this sort of rhetoric is not an escalation, then I’ve been missing something. Either that, or I’m getting paranoid, but I’m not usually a paranoid person. Cautious, yes, but not paranoid.
Please, others, do chime in with something intelligent, a la daltongang.
“Oh, quit worrying, scaredy-cat!” adds nothing to the discussion. Give us some analysis.
I was wondering whether anyone else had noticed that short piece of writing.
You’re right, not paranoid, Thomas. The rhetoric has increased lately. It actually started to pick up around the end of last year.
I think the difference between the rhetoric that poured out before and the recent garble lies in specifics. (Someone can correct me if I’m wrong.)
Previously, we, the general public, had only heard about missle defense systems, the ever-increasing number of missles aimed at Taiwan and what if’s. However, potential attack plans had never really been broadcasted so openly in print. (Again, someone can correct me if I’m wrong.)
That’s a little strange, isn’t it?
Everyone knows that the officialdom in China is set to “reclaim” Taiwan, sooner or later. We also know that it isn’t out of concern for those of us living here that they want to do so. ($) Regardless, we shouldn’t bet that the Olympics would let hinder that “dream” at any time.
Q: Does anyone really believe that a “punishing military operation” on Taiwan “would receive the support and sympathy of the international community and a majority of neighboring countries”?
Also, the U.S.'s sale of weapons and other advance technologies to Taiwan is no secret. And, good Lord, here’s China’s opinion of such an action:
fmprc.gov.cn/eng/ljzg/3568/t17806.htm
And the Chinese MOFA also states, relating to the Taiwan issue: “No foreign countries have the right to interfere.”
fmprc.gov.cn/eng/ljzg/3568/t17808.htm
After hearing the paraphrased words of Professor Zeng Xiangduo
[quote=“Juba”]I had nearly finished dinner in a Taibei restaurant on Monday when [url=http://www.google.com.tw/search?&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=%E6%9B%BE%E7%A5%A5%E9%90%B8]History Professor Zeng Xiangduo
One of my most well-read and sanguine friends, a 20 year veteran of the Taiwan game, just wrote to me that it’s all rhetoric. He also added this:
[quote]I don’t think China is going to do anything. It doesn’t have nearly
sufficient landing craft so it would have to land troops by air which
puts troops at great risk. It’s logistics capability is terrible. I don’t
think it has any aircraft carriers; it’s only now discussing purchase of a
chopper carrier. China’s economy is still unstable. It imports from SE Asia
almost as much as it exports to the US. The north is insolvent, 80% of the
country is as poor as it was 15 years ago, corruption goes right to the top
with Jiang Ze-Min not retiring because his kids would be busted and jailed
immediately.
This is a country that hasn’t fought a war in twenty years and got it’s
ass kicked by it’s little brother to the south (Vietnam) the last time it did fight. Its missiles can’t hit a barn, it’s planes have junk electronics, it’s
pilots are massively undertrained and flying pieces of antiquated junk, etc. etc…
I ain’t worried.[/quote]
Not that I’m freaking out. As I wrote earlier, I’ve got some responsiblities here. Just being cautious.
Everyone I’ve spoken to, local and foreign, thinks this referendum is a pre-election joke. Something the liberal college professors and elderly independence boosters want. The younger folks, the yuppies, and the working class people I talk to about it scoff at it.
Another friend wrote to me that A-Bien is like a small kid who, after being told by a larger kid that he’d protect him if a bully came after him, then goes and provokes the bully. Very bad form.
My eyebrows rose when I read that piece. I also thought of putting it up for discussion on Forumosa.
I don’t interpret it as just more of the same old blustering rhetoric. It seems more like they’re setting out their stance and intentions for the world to take note of and to see how the international community reacts. And if that reaction is sufficiently muted, they’ll be able to take it as a green light for at least firing a warning shot or two across Taiwan’s bows when the need becomes irresistibly pressing (which could be very soon).
Certainly, a military strike would NOT have the support and sympathy of the international community. But if it were sufficiently restrained, those countries and the all-important U.S. might just be persuaded to shrug their shoulders and let it go with nothing more than hollow expressions of condemnation.
Why aren’t more of us getting nervous and packing our bags to leave? Some, like me, will stay here whatever happens, unless and until we’re forced to leave. Others, I suspect, may have been infected with the ostrich-like complacency that is so common among the Taiwanese.
The way I see it is that this is the usual blustering of the Chinese military that must be allowed to let them blow off steam and let their voice be heard. These recent comments are nothing new, they have already previously said that the Olympics, loss of economic gain and life and limb, etc. will not stop them from an attack, it was published by the state mouthpiece about two months ago or so with the same details. This is just old wine in new bottle. I think their statement would be true of an outright formal declaration of independence but even they know that the international community would not come down on their side over an attack over a referendum that is not directly related to independence.
China has done far too much recently to step up its profile as an international player, including peace brokering in the middle east of all things. The younger movers and shakers in Beijing are trying to have the party be seen as a class act now and bring themselves into the fold of responsible international leaders. Their reputation is what they are trying to build, hence the rocket launch. However, the old mindset in the old heads of the military still have strong influence. The biggest worry being the still military chief Jiang Zemin. Remember it is he who rose to power in the wake of Tiananmen Square. But that was an their own soil and they know that an attack on Taiwan would be an international crisis and yes, the American military would be here faster than you can say The Taiwan Relations Act. George Bush is a hegemonic leader facing a difficult re-election and despite his red commie chum up in the oval office last month, an excuse to go into another military conflict that the U.S. would win with one hand tied behind its back (and also an excuse to abandon Iraq gracefully) and then really control this vitally important little island in Asia would be most appealing. By the time he was re-elected he could worry about the aftermath, never a priority of his anyway.
Shou Bushie has done his part in escalating this thing far out of proportion anyway, as did the PRC (and their cohort the KMT) in the first place. Shou Bushie
China was all full of rhetoric, much worse stuff, during the Cultural Revolution. But they didn’t try anything on Taiwan then, and they didn’t even take Hong Kong. I suspect much of this rhetoric is for domestic consumption, most of us living here are well used to it. We might see missile testing yet. We saw that before. Mass troop movements just across the water. Yup, seen it all before.
Landing craft ? All China has to do to bring Taiwan to its knees is throw the Tai Shangs out of China. Taiwan has not yet developed an economic model which supercedes the “build em cheap stack em high” manufacturing model they are using in China. They could have set this place (Taipei) up as a centre for media and banking, on the premise that Beijing’s control of Hong Kong was unattractive to foreigners. It hasn’t happened. The only thing that bothers me is that China is mad enough to pull the plug on Taiwanese inward investment, and to hell with the future prosperity of its citizenry. I believe the foreign investment climate in China is deliberately set up so as to be easily dismantleable (is that a word!?) if politics and economics come into irresolvable conflict.
There was really nobody in charge during the Cultural Revolution; even if they had wanted to coordinate an invasion, they hardly couldn’t have done so, as there wasn’t any structure to follow.
Every time I hear the older pro-Independence guys (and it does seem to be the older people; my adopted mother is one, for instance, while her children, all about my age, are going to vote Lien/Song) saying “Ai-ya, bu hui la” to questions concerning a Chinese reaction to this useless referendum, I am reminded of same responses you would get if you asked someone before (or even after) the 9/21 earthquake about whether he or she feared their house, having been constructed with shoddy materials, would fall down in an earthquake. Or go ahead and ask one of the families-on-scooters sans helmets if they are worried that they will have an accident. Same thing. And they might be right, maybe nothing will happen. Still doesn’t make it a smart thing to do.
So say he have the referendum as scheduled, and SHOCK! people don’t like missiles pointed at them. Then what? What will we have gained from this? International recognition? I doubt it; only a mainland attack would get us that, but I’m pretty sure that wouldn’t be a fair trade.
Also, why does everyone assume that Lien will hand over control to Beijing as soon as he’s elected. Why would he do that? Isn’t it better to be president of a country than a local provincial magistrate?
In any case, Taiwan’s going to have to come up with some sort of agreement with China eventually; just declaring independence isn’t going to make the PLA say “Oh, ok, then!” We just need to make sure we’re strong enough to make it as favorable as possible for us.
[quote=“Tomas”]One of my most well-read and sanguine friends, a 20 year veteran of the Taiwan game, just wrote to me that it’s all rhetoric. He also added this:
[quote]I don’t think China is going to do anything. It doesn’t have nearly
sufficient landing craft so it would have to land troops by air which
puts troops at great risk. It’s logistics capability is terrible. I don’t
think it has any aircraft carriers; it’s only now discussing purchase of a
chopper carrier. China’s economy is still unstable. It imports from SE Asia
almost as much as it exports to the US. The north is insolvent, 80% of the
country is as poor as it was 15 years ago, corruption goes right to the top
with Jiang Ze-Min not retiring because his kids would be busted and jailed
immediately.
This is a country that hasn’t fought a war in twenty years and got it’s
ass kicked by it’s little brother to the south (Vietnam) the last time it did fight. Its missiles can’t hit a barn, it’s planes have junk electronics, it’s
pilots are massively undertrained and flying pieces of antiquated junk, etc. etc…
I ain’t worried.[/quote]
Not that I’m freaking out. As I wrote earlier, I’ve got some responsiblities here. Just being cautious.
Everyone I’ve spoken to, local and foreign, thinks this referendum is a pre-election joke. Something the liberal college professors and elderly independence boosters want. The younger folks, the yuppies, and the working class people I talk to about it scoff at it.
Another friend wrote to me that A-Bien is like a small kid who, after being told by a larger kid that he’d protect him if a bully came after him, then goes and provokes the bully. Very bad form.[/quote]
Landing craft is a real problem. In a previous incarnation (3-4 years ago) I worked at Boeing and got a lot of the military analysis stuff shoved across my desk. At that time, the estimates were that it would take China 8-10 years to produce enough landing craft to actually hold the island. The flipside was that, in theory, all fishing boats could be commandeered as landing craft. That was said to be a possibility, with the caveat that a canoe is definitely less desireable than a fullt armored landing craft 
.
Actually I am concerned too. It is an escalation of rhetoric. But not an especially surprising one. China has long made their opposition to referendums clear. To counteract the “China is not going to do anything because…” talk around would seem a natural propaganda goal too. Chen has overplayed his hand and to make him pay for that is natural too, and if I were generous in assessing China’s ultimate intentions, I might even say that that was not totally a bad thing, just as Bush making his policy clear was not a bad thing.
I am certainly going to be paying close attention to this. But nothing seems too disturbing yet.
I would like to think that China will be rational. Military action seems like drawing two to a full house–a big role of the dice in a situation that doesn’t call for it. Of course their perceptions may be different. However I think they just want to make their position well known before Chen gets out of hand, and embarrass him before the election, while showing up Taiwan’s weakness in the light of its own strength, and complicating its relations with the US, all of which it seems to be successfully doing.
Ok, we need a plan then. If it all goes wrong and there’s no way out. We all meet at Carnegies, no… not there… that’s worse than being taken over… ok, we need a location to meet for one last beer in the ROC before the penis gets chopped off the R and we become PRC. Well, where’s it gonna be?
One Taiwanese friend in NZ wants me to make sure that his 2 daughters in Taipei get out safely. They are NZ citizens now but he doesn’t think it guarantees anything since they are ROC citizens too. He thinks too much…
We could sit on the verandah at Carnage and watch the PLA march up An He Road. Bob could supply bread rolls and sausages or something for us to throw at them. It could all be quite civilised.
Why should China bother to invade militarily when if they’re patient they can assimilate an ailing Taiwan a few years down the line without force?
Please explain, mod lang. 
the flow of investment and people to China continues…
the local political situation, to be polite, is schizophrenic…
most ominously, the us is starting to look bored with the situation…
in poker terms this is called a FULL HOUSE. yes, four of a kind is nice, but do i want to be left holding three of a kind if i don’t make it? but wait they play bridge over there don’t they? :)