Cross-Strait Tensions: Yikes!

[quote=“Bassman”]Ok, we need a plan then. If it all goes wrong and there’s no way out. We all meet at Carnegies, no… not there… that’s worse than being taken over… ok, we need a location to meet for one last beer in the ROC before the penis gets chopped off the R and we become PRC. Well, where’s it gonna be?

One Taiwanese friend in NZ wants me to make sure that his 2 daughters in Taipei get out safely. They are NZ citizens now but he doesn’t think it guarantees anything since they are ROC citizens too. He thinks too much…[/quote]

If there’s a war, the only thing we can do is hidding in the mountain or suburban area of Taiwan and wait for the war to end fast.

I am very serious. And don’t forget to get enough drinking water and food. :cry:

Ya better make damn sure you have plenty of clean drinking water. I have a well, I’ve never used it for drinking water, just for the toilet and shower.

Food, I think I’ll grab one of those mad scooter boys that ride like an idiot and have him for dinner. No, I am not German (if you know the story you’ll get it).

[quote=“Poagao”]
Also, why does everyone assume that Lien will hand over control to Beijing as soon as he’s elected. Why would he do that? Isn’t it better to be president of a country than a local provincial magistrate?

In any case, Taiwan’s going to have to come up with some sort of agreement with China eventually; just declaring independence isn’t going to make the PLA say “Oh, ok, then!” We just need to make sure we’re strong enough to make it as favorable as possible for us.[/quote]

I couldn’t agree with you more!!

[quote=“Tomas”]
What touched a nerve with me recently was the use of this phrasing by the CCP: “The Chinese government is not afraid of a delay in economic development, not afraid of not hosting the Olympics or the World Expo and not afraid of sacrificing [no matter] how many people.” Reminds me too much of TianAnMen. The folks in charge of things in Beijing don’t care much about human life. They probably care more about economic gains. I was also under the impression, based on foreign policy analysis pieces I’d read, that China wouldn’t do anything before the 2008 Olympics. The CCP seems to know what we’re all saying about the reasons why they wouldn’t attack Taiwan, because they countered all three of the key arguments with this statement.

If you’re telling me that this sort of rhetoric is not an escalation, then I’ve been missing something. Either that, or I’m getting paranoid, but I’m not usually a paranoid person. Cautious, yes, but not paranoid.

Please, others, do chime in with something intelligent, a la daltongang.
“Oh, quit worrying, scaredy-cat!” adds nothing to the discussion. Give us some analysis.[/quote]

I talked to my father the other day on this issue. My father was born in China and fled to Taiwan after the civil war. He worked in Army and retired as a colonel and then worked in the government. My mom is a Taiwanese. When my father was 17 or 18 (1945-1946), he almost joined the communists. During that time, communists were considered as the “idealist” who were on the people’s side. But my grandfather asked him to stay.

My father told me that if Taiwan doesn’t declare independence, there won’t be a war. He talked to a relative from China who visited taiwan last year about this issue. That relative worked as a high-level official in China.

It’s kinda ironic that he worked for the “Propaganda” department.
http://www.jstz.org.cn:5001/

And his father was a general of KMT’s army during WWII. His name is An-lan Tai, who fought Japan with the British/US Army and died in the Burma Campaign. He’s the first
Chinese solder to receive the Legion of Merit from US.

Info of the Legion of Merit:
http://foxfall.com/fmd-common-lom.htm

Burma Campaign:
http://homepages.force9.net/rothwell/burmaweb/index.htm

The reason I brought these history up is that I am proud to be seen as a Chinese from the “free” part of China: Taiwan, especially when I was in the US. Why declare independence and say my ancestors came from some islands of south Asia? Why declare independence and say these wonderful historical heritages of China has nothing to do with me? All these wonderful ideas from Confucius, SunTzu (the art of war)…etc are part of me.

According to my relative, China won’t start a war easily because there has been too many wars in China since 19th century. Because of these wars, people in China have lived the “poor” life for a long long time.
And a war between Taiwan and China will destroy the economical progress they have now.

Anyway, China is changing. And they understand the “wonderful” life they are having now came from “peace”.

By the way, I really hate “US government” for giving people in Taiwan false hope that they will help Taiwan when there’s a war.

Why do you think that the US would not help Taiwan in the event of a war?

I think the americans would think twice about getting into a war in Asia when they allready are pulling from the reserves for the middle east. Not enough money, not enough people. China certainly has enough people, and adequate equipment. And they are only 150 miles away. I hope your point of view holds true, cybertai. I like to think Taiwan’s money protects us more than anything. You don’t burn down the bank. You dress up nice and hope they will see things your way.

[quote=“cybertai”]Why declare independence and say my ancestors came from some islands of south Asia? Why declare independence and say these wonderful historical heritages of China has nothing to do with me? All these wonderful ideas from Confucius, SunTzu (the art of war)…etc are part of me.

[/quote]

Why do you assume that just because you’re not politically part of China, you’re not Chinese? My ancestors declared independence from England a long time ago, yet Shakespeare and the Magna Carta and all those wonderful ideas are still part of my heritage. Has Singapore stopped following the ideas of Confucius and Sun Tzu just because they’re a small island near Malaysia, and not a part of the Chinese country?

I don’t think you can fault the US government for that, but rather the pro-independence activists who try to play up such an angle to make people feel more secure and less wary of the mainland threat. I think the US just might lend a hand if China makes an unprovoked attack. However, if Taiwan were to “start” a conflict by declaring independence, the US would most likely stay out of it. If that happens, I wonder if people here will become a bit more negative in their attitudes towards foreigners.

I don’t think you can fault the US government for that, but rather the pro-independence activists who try to play up such an angle to make people feel more secure and less wary of the mainland threat. I think the US just might lend a hand if China makes an unprovoked attack. However, if Taiwan were to “start” a conflict by declaring independence, the US would most likely stay out of it. If that happens, I wonder if people here will become a bit more negative in their attitudes towards foreigners.[/quote]

I think you are right. It’s the pro-independence activists that gave us false hope.

I agree with you. If China starts a war, the air force and navy of Taiwan could be able to cause some damages to Shanghai or Senzen, and then stop the economical progress in China.
That’s a huge risk for China government.

I agree with you. If China starts a war, the air force and navy of Taiwan could be able to cause some damages to Shanghai or Senzen, and then stop the economical progress in China.
That’s a huge risk for China government.[/quote]
Don’t let your national pride get in the way of reality. The economic damage would be from sanctions against China by major economies, not a few dozen widely-scattered bomb craters in Shanghai.

Obviously, Chinese public statements are being crafted more and more carefully. I think they actually hired a PR firm to help them with things like this, didn’t they? But that still doesn’t mean that they will do what they say.

A war would put a lot of Chinese out of work. The last thing they want is unemployed men demonstrating in the big cities, so if they can’t ship them all to the front, better not have the war.

Japan and the U.S. CANNOT allow Taiwan to fall into the hands of China. The shipping routes it controls are too valuable. Whatever they may say publicly, they will do whatever it takes to foil an invasion. (For example, we might see Chinese warships getting sunk, without anybody taking credit for it.)

I wonder whether it would be feasible for China to occupy Quemoy and Matsu? That would probably be acceptable internationally, while sending a clear message here.

The referendum topics are formulated with very fuzzy logic (if one thinks Taiwan and China should be equal, but that there should be no negotiations, how should one vote?), but the main idea is to set a precedent. I would rather have seen a referendum on whether Taiwan should enter negotiations on the basis of “one country, two systems” or whatever China’s latest proposal was. They couldn’t very well protest that, and when the results came back negative, more embarrassment for them.

I agree with you. If China starts a war, the air force and navy of Taiwan could be able to cause some damages to Shanghai or Senzen, and then stop the economical progress in China.
That’s a huge risk for China government.[/quote]
Don’t let your national pride get in the way of reality. The economic damage would be from sanctions against China by major economies, not a few dozen widely-scattered bomb craters in Shanghai.[/quote]
I don’t think he’s letting national pride influence his assessment of the possibilities. While the ROCAF does not have the strike capability of a first world airforce like those of the US or Britain, they could pack a pretty powerful punch. You’ve got to consider the vulnerabilites of the PRC. A retired AF guy explained to me that if attacked, the ROCAF’s warplans don’t call for it to go completely on the defensive right away. They will go straight for the larger nodes of the mainland’s power grid. The Yangtze and Pearl River Delta industrial areas are both within reach of the ROCAF. The power infrastructure of the mainland is very fragile and there is no excess capacity. Have you read about the year-round, rolling blackouts in the south (one day a week here in Dongguan), and even worse, the unplanned blackouts all around Shanghai? These power problems have already cooled the enthusisiasm of many investors who are considering setting up shop in the two main industrial areas of the mainland. They can’t just throw up new powerplants overnight. If Taiwan were to take out a small handful of powerplants in these two areas, this would seriously cripple the mainland’s industrial capacity. The Chungshan Institute has been developing cruise missiles for this purpose for quite a few years now. Will they be operational any time soon? Who knows. The question is not whether Taiwan has the capability to damage the mainland’s industrial capacity, but whether or not they would have the political will to do so. If the AF thinks the President has unnecessarily led Taiwan into war, I doubt any pilots would be interested in possible suicide missions to Shanghai or Guangzhou. If the mainland is seen to have caused it, and especially if the ROCAF improves its stand-off air to ground capabilities, then the power infrastructure of the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas could take some significant damage.

One interesting possibility is that China will be able to bribe crucial Taiwan military officers into siding with China when the crunch comes. Not all of them, of course, but just enough to mess with the defense.

I’d be very surprised indeed to find that China doesn’t already have Taiwan military officers in its pocket. After all, does anyone really believe that there are no Taiwan politicians on Beijing’s payroll?

I’d be very surprised indeed to find that China doesn’t already have Taiwan military officers in its pocket. After all, does anyone really believe that there are no Taiwan politicians on Beijing’s payroll?[/quote]
I’d bet money on it. Nevertheless, I still think of it as similar to “vote buying” in Taiwan. Voters can take as much money as they want, but there is still no way to be sure how they’ll vote. I imagine there are plenty of officers who would side with Beijing if a pro-independence president blew Beijing’s gasket by announcing independence. I hope that these same officers would fight if the mainlanders invaded without any real provocation. Talking about military jets, missiles and submarines only describes part of the situation. The will to fight is where the real gray area is to be found. I’m not pro-KMT, but my opinion is that the military is much more likely to try to fight off an unprovoked invasion under a KMT president than they would if the DPP were in power. No matter how war were to break out, many officers would blame the DPP or TSU for causing it.

I agree with you. If China starts a war, the air force and navy of Taiwan could be able to cause some damages to Shanghai or Senzen, and then stop the economical progress in China.
That’s a huge risk for China government.[/quote]
Don’t let your national pride get in the way of reality. The economic damage would be from sanctions against China by major economies, not a few dozen widely-scattered bomb craters in Shanghai.[/quote]
I don’t think he’s letting national pride influence his assessment of the possibilities. While the ROCAF does not have the strike capability of a first world airforce like those of the US or Britain, they could pack a pretty powerful punch. You’ve got to consider the vulnerabilites of the PRC. A retired AF guy explained to me that if attacked, the ROCAF’s warplans don’t call for it to go completely on the defensive right away. They will go straight for the larger nodes of the mainland’s power grid. The Yangtze and Pearl River Delta industrial areas are both within reach of the ROCAF. The power infrastructure of the mainland is very fragile and there is no excess capacity. Have you read about the year-round, rolling blackouts in the south (one day a week here in Dongguan), and even worse, the unplanned blackouts all around Shanghai? These power problems have already cooled the enthusisiasm of many investors who are considering setting up shop in the two main industrial areas of the mainland. They can’t just throw up new powerplants overnight. If Taiwan were to take out a small handful of powerplants in these two areas, this would seriously cripple the mainland’s industrial capacity. The Zhongshan Institute has been developing cruise missiles for this purpose for quite a few years now. Will they be operational any time soon? Who knows. The question is not whether Taiwan has the capability to damage the mainland’s industrial capacity, but whether or not they would have the political will to do so. If the AF thinks the President has unnecessarily led Taiwan into war, I doubt any pilots would be interested in possible suicide missions to Shanghai or Guangzhou. If the mainland is seen to have caused it, and especially if the ROCAF improves its stand-off air to ground capabilities, then the power infrastructure of the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas could take some significant damage.[/quote]

Jive Turkey, thank you for your excellent point!
It gives me some relief.