I don’t see the cleverness in this either. Although it may be a desperate cry for help in response to the visits by Ma and Hu, Chen is only broadcasting his weaknesses in making this move. I can’t imagine how much how they had for success with such a last-minute request, particularly on heels of Hu’s visit. Wrong, wrong, wrong, and bordering on stupid.
Why does Chen have to keep demonstrating his amateurism in international politics? It can’t help him in the polls and he never gets anything out of it. :help:
I believe that this would be physically impossible. No commercial jet flying could go from Taiwan to Central or South America without refueling. The US is really the only place that’s on the way. Flying directly acrose the Pacific would probably require two stops for fuel. I don’t think Chen would be welcome in the Solomons just now. [/quote]
Not true. He’s actually flying to (almost) exactly the other side of the world - so he could just as easily fly in any direction to get there. He needs to make a stop, but it could as easily be in Europe, Africa, US, Canada or Australia. Makes absolutely no difference (apart from politically of course)
I thought for a moment that Sandman was making a good joke about oil-rich UAE. But no.
Even if Chen had initially announced without further comment that he would not stop in the U.S., everyone would have known the real reason why, the Blues would still be calling him a loser, and we would still be having this discussion. So his only other choice was never to go to the other rim of the Pacific again.
By publicizing the rumpus and explaining its real causes, he can at least make it clear to foreigners who read newspapers just how insane and petty the PRC’s obsession with the island really is. Upon hearing this story, a disinterested observer will conclude that Hu Jintao cares more about where Chen sleeps than he does about nuclear proliferation and African genocide. Such observers will also shake their heads at how hypocritical Bush is, but Bush is hated in any case and Taiwan’s reputation will be helped if Bush is seen to be unjust. Anyway, that’s how the story will play in the court of world opinion, which is more important than the UN.
Not true. He’s actually flying to (almost) exactly the other side of the world - so he could just as easily fly in any direction to get there. He needs to make a stop, but it could as easily be in Europe, Africa, US, Canada or Australia. Makes absolutely no difference (apart from politically of course)[/quote]
We are on the same wavelength here, david! Any great circle path to Paraguay would be equally efficient indeed, because Paraguay is exactly half way around the world from Taiwan, which means CSB could choose any point on the globe to stop. I specifically checked this. And on the way back from Costa Rica, Alaska is actually on the shortest path, too; so CSB can’t blame the US for not offering him the shortest path on both legs. New York City, though, would be rather out of the way on the way back. Curious, ain’t it?
You are assuming two things wrongly. First, you assume Hu Jintao had a hand in it. I don’t. Sure, Beijing doesn’t want the head of Taiwan government to make multi-day political visits in the US, but that’s a long standing position and Beijing always complains about that. Didn’t prevent CSB from stopping over earlier when US-Taiwan relations were better. This snub is Washington’s own decision, and it didn’t come out of the blue (if one has memory lasting more than a few months). Second, you assume there are “world observers” who care about such petty matters. IN reality, there are only a handful outside Taiwan. An earthquake in the Pacific generated 100 times more news coverage than CSB.
Is it really Abu Dhabi? I could swear it was Lebanon yesterday. Maybe I was wrong; transliteration of Arabic names into English into traditional Chinese… who knows what it said. I just sounded it out in my head.
Now he might stop in Lebanon as a sign of protest against the USA.
I mean if you really want to protest stop off in Iran or Cuba.
What make this from bad to worst is that he is blaming the PRC for leveraging the issue North Korea, Iran, and Sudan with the USA to make this possible.
Still in denial, when will he just admit the reason he is in this mess is because he screw up with the whole NUC fiasco a few months back. If he wants to stop off in NYC so bad, just re-instate the 1000 NT annual budget for the NUC…and accept those stupid panda gifts.
This whole impulsive “go west” plan sounds more and more like a kamikazi plan. I mean CSB had to refuel somewhere. Maybe he figured once in the air, some country or another would be forced by humanitarian concerns to let him land before his fuel ran out. And if nothing else, CSB definitely planned on playing the blame-China card along the way, whatever the case may actually be, because too many like to fantasize that all of Taiwan’s problems are caused by China. I can already hear the TI/ers cheering Chen’s “diplomatic victory” for refusing the US offer of a safe, if uneventful, transit.
I think CSB should seriously consider buying one of those mid-air refuelling thingy planes so that it won’t be necessary to refuel anywhere thus allowing CSB to fly wherever he wants to without actually landing anywhere.
I’m sure the US would be willing to sell him a diesel model left over from the Korean war. Diesel subs, diesel planes – simplification is the answer!
Could this slap-in-the-face actually help him to gain sympathy and build up his image at home?
After all, there is no real loss on TW’s part except face. And most parts of the world don’t report (or know or care) what’s going on with CSB or even TW.
I am sure it helps him gain sympathy with the TI/ers and even some soft-hearted moderates at home. In fact, I know so. CSB is nothing if not good at manipulating anti-China and poor-pissed-on-hero-Chen feelings whatever the circumstances may be.
Below is an automatically generated CSB speech from the TI playbook. It goes something like this:
Did I read that CSB will be landing in Hawaii on the way back? Or is he still playing tantrum with the US’s offer?
As far as sympathy/loss of face from this… I think any effect is temporary in any case. The long-term effect won’t be determined by how soft-hearted voters “feel”. The long-term effect depends on the change in geopolitical balance this trip reflects.
[quote=“zeugmite”]I am sure it helps him gain sympathy with the TI/ers and even some soft-hearted moderates at home. In fact, I know so. CSB is nothing if not good at manipulating anti-China and poor-pissed-on-hero-Chen feelings whatever the circumstances may be.
Below is an automatically generated CSB speech from the TI playbook. It goes something like this:
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I even felt bad for him for a few minutes after learning he was refused landing in Lebanon. Boy is that humiliating. I guess it takes a real politician (or masochist) to keep composure in a situation like this.
I have no issues with Beijing leaving TW(with CSB) no political space, but I do think they should let TW join organizations like WHO
The consensus view, as you can see from Kahn’s article in the NYT, is that Bush does not want to “antagonize” Hu after the recent unpleasantness on the White House lawn. Bush is thowing a bone to the CCP because he thinks no one is watching except for the interested parties. Perhaps no one is at the moment, but the outside world’s interest in East Asia is growing very quickly and the Taiwanese are right to keep publicizing their cause, since it needs no defense. (My apologies to those for whom all this is blindingly obvious.)
Taiwan (under its “name of choice” – Republic of China) has been refused admittance to the United Nations thirteen times in a row, so it is clear that there is nothing in the UN Charter which can possibly help Taiwan gain admittance to the family of world nations … (at this point in time anyway) …
The United Nations Security Council will only accept “One China” … any other formulation is impossible.
Under international law, the ROC does not have “territorial title” to the areas of Formosa and the Pescadores … and territorial sovereignty must be based on having “territorial title” … so if that is the supposed cause which they want to publicize … that is not going to work either.
The best thing that President Chen could do for his own people here would be to announce the end to ROC’s military occupation of Taiwan … and that would certainly gain some international publicity !!!
The “cause” is just preserving Taiwan’s freedom, self-determination, etc., from destruction by the PRC. Nothing fancy.
Hartzell, I’m wodering what kind of a reaction do you get from ordinary, reasonably well-educated Taiwanese when you undertake to explain their country’s peculiar legal status to them? I am 100% sympathetic to an accurate reconstruction of all the legal ins and outs, but your project must seem, at best, like an academic exercise to them. Or?
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