What areas do you think we’re playing catch up on?
I do - I work in defense.
One of the big problems the U.S. has traditionally had is assuming they understand the motivations of other players. We’re really very bad at it.
Yep. This and Israel. It’s funny how politicians like to pretend there’s a difference there.
China has a lot of power within the UN but that doesn’t mean a lot if not most countries would look sideways if the CCP tried to take Taiwan by force. The US has a lot more (and more powerful) allies than the CCP.
And no, Taiwan cannot be formally recognized because that is the start of WW3 unfortunately. That is the reality.
Strange, this comes as no surprise to me at all. Trump did them a favour by ripping off the bandaid, to be sure.
Hypersonic and mid-range missiles, for example, but not because of a focus on the Middle East as much as arms treaties with Russia that China wasn’t party to. Overall, I tend to agree with you here (you’ve also made the point, I seem to recall, that Chinese subs have the numbers in all-out-war to overcome US technological advances).
Overall, right now I’d still put my money on the US (and have, by moving to Taiwan for the indefinite future), but I’m glad that there are calls for greater spending, alliances, and rebalancing of US forces; just because China would be rash to invade soon doesn’t mean that the status quo on Taiwan defence can last indefinitely.
Yes, it is like people haven’t read much history #leagueofnations
While WW3 is perhaps a touch alarmist, you are totally right that these types of formal moves (also independence, or putting US troops in Taiwan) are a known red line for China and would give the CCP justification for pushing back harder. Same thing with Kinmen, if the Chinese take outlying islands which are easy pickings and stop there, it gives the US/Taiwan justification for pushing back harder. Those who fail to grasp this concept seem to be the most doom-and-gloomy about US support for Taiwan.
I think the US should strong-arm Taiwan into reinstituting the draft.
No draft, no more arms sales.
That could backfire by leaving Taiwan totally defenceless, and easily for reasons of politics and culture. Even if it were successful, what is the point of drafting an unhappy and poorly trained army that you have to pay and take care of (seems like a lot of wasted money)?
I think porcupine/fortress Taiwan (missiles!), and focus on making sure the forces they have are well trained and well equipped before expanding the military ranks through incentives (family benefits that might also help with population growth, for example). Expansion could be both professional soldiers and a weekend-warrior reserve system that builds patriotism and camaraderie with camping and war-games (gadgets!).
Hypersonics, it appears we’re playing catch-up to China, but not Russia.
Assuming you mean MRBM specifically, … eh… we tested one like a month after withdrawing from the INF. The tech is nothing special when you can do every other kind of missile in its adjoining spaces.
I’ve pointed out they have plenty of subs and we can’t count on an advantage due to our fleet. I don’t pretend to know what would transpire in an all out war.
It depends what you’re putting your money on. Preventing an assault that takes over Taiwan? Maybe, maybe not - I wouldn’t bet on it either way. Maybe where the u.s. “wins” due to china not taking over, but Taiwan being fucked up beyond recognition? That, unfortunately, is where I put my money on in a no kidding hot war.
Because 25k more conscripted soldiers will make a meaningful difference in an invasion by china? Also easy to say as a dual citizen that hasn’t been back for 7 years…
It’ll make all the difference. What reputable military expert thinks you can take over without sending troops?
I was considering enlisting long before you were on here.
That consideration increased the number of troops by exactly 0.
Beside the point, but anyway, God bless you.
Yes, I do.
A couple of military thinkers believed Taiwan could win the war until they found out Taiwanese people don’t take their defense seriously.
So this is key.
I’ve posted tons of links above. You can read them for yourself. China has established a very credible A2/AD capability and many military experts are not sure we can defeat it.
It’s pretty shameful that given how much the US spends on defense the commander of the Indo-Pacific Command had to go to DC with his hand out asking for $20 billion to “Regain the Advantage”. You don’t “regain” something unless you’ve lost it…
Apparently you haven’t read m/any of the links I’ve posted, many of which are either directly from US military sources or quote them.
Ok well if you think that the gray zone warfare analysis is off or you don’t believe what the history of modern day China makes abundantly clear…
Sometimes when a country says they intend to do something they really mean it. Crazy huh? “We are going to reunify” is not some secret phrase for “we’re going to Mars”.
So let’s get this straight. If China tries to take Taiwan, which it says it is going to do either peacefully or by force if Taiwan doesn’t eventually give in, you think the US and its allies will stop at nothing to prevent this… but somehow that won’t lead to WW3? But if they dare recognize Taiwan as the country that it is it will start WW3?
If all these powerful nations are so committed to Taiwan this WW3 you speak of would be awfully short. In that case why not get it over with?
Every battle is won before it’s ever fought. The gray zone warfare designed to wear Taiwan down is already underway. Taiwan spent $13 billion on defense last year. Almost a billion of that was spent just on scrambling jets to deal with China’s ADIZ intrusions.
One of the scenarios experts talk about is China taking over Matsu, Kinmen, etc. etc. and using that to bring Taiwan to the table. The US isn’t going to fight a war over small islands so close to China’s shores but the act of taking them would almost certainly create a big dilemma for Taiwan and the US.
Sounds like a nice vacation! This is precisely the problem Taiwan faces. It’s the whole JFK, “Ask not what your country can do for you…” deal.
Everything you described is on your terms, with your goal to “set an example” really being about you, not your country…
Taiwan needs citizens who are committed to its defense and willing to be put to use wherever they’re needed. Again Israel is a good reference for this…
That’s not a big deal. The US told Taiwan it didn’t have to do that, but Taiwan does it anyway (for some reason).
What “expert”? Deutsche Welle explored this possibility and ruled it out. Those islands are much closer to China than Taiwan so offers China little advantage in taking them over.
But if it did, it just gives the U.S. more time to move their fleet over.
Yes, Taiwan has sent its reserves over to learn. But Israel has far more problems with their military. Their own largest human rights organization, B’Tselem, for example, wants to sue it for war crimes. Occupying another people militarily for so long can keep your troops fresh, but engender a host of other problems.
Sure it is. Spending $1 billion/year out of your $13 billion military budget waving “hi” to Chinese planes is an absolute waste of resources.
DW is a broadcaster, not a person.
https://www.cato.org/commentary/beijing-preparing-backdoor-military-aggression-against-taiwan
But U.S. action regarding more indirect coercive measures is less certain. What would happen, for example, if PRC forces moved to take over Kinmen (Quemoy) and Matsu (two tiny islands just a few miles off the mainland coast), but Beijing emphasized to Washington that it had no intention of moving against Taiwan itself? Even when the PRC repeatedly shelled those islands during the 1950s, Eisenhower administration officials never clearly decided what to do if matters escalated and China actually invaded those islands. At the time, Taipei had strong military garrisons to slow any such attempt, but now Kinmen and Matsu are virtually undefended, and a PRC takeover could occur in a matter of hours with little or no fighting. Would such a provocation (and a fait accompli) over very modest stakes be serious enough for U.S. leaders to risk a full‐scale war with China?
Beijing has an opportunity for an even more indirect measure that still would humiliate Taipei and send a blunt message about Beijing’s determination to prevent Taiwan’s independence. Taiwan claims two sets of tiny islands in the South China Sea, the largest of which is Taiping in the Spratly chain, and those claims have served as a source of national pride. This summer, China plans a major naval and air power exercise in the immediate vicinity, and speculation exists that those forces could move to seize control of those islands. Most military observers dismiss that possibility, noting that the islands lost whatever strategic value they might have once had for Beijing when the PRC built several artificial islands nearby. However, a takeover would not be primarily for military reasons; the coercive political symbolism would be the driving motive.
Even more than a PRC move against Kinmen and Matsu, such a peripheral provocation would put Washington in a bind. Despite the virulently anti‐China state of public opinion in the United States, would there be reliable congressional and public support for a U.S. military showdown with China to back Taiwan’s claim to a few miniscule islets in the South China Sea? Such a reservoir of support seems unlikely.
If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go.
To where? Is the US going to park its fleet in the middle of the Taiwan strait and make it a sitting duck for land-based aircraft and missiles for the next 2 decades? Do you understand what A2/AD is?
This is not what I’m talking about and it’s irrelevant. The point I was making is that Israel evaluates its conscripts and assigns them based on their capabilities…
What you described for your own possible “service vacation” was an a la carte menu of experiences you’d like to have…
It’s not a broadcaster, it’s a news station.
Not besides the point at all; it still leaves you in the easy to say category - it’s super easy to volunteer someone else to be conscripted when you yourself considered, then rejected, volunteering.
Well that’s it then. One TV station aired a program that “ruled out” the possibility of a future event so it definitely can’t happen. Because everybody knows the Germans have the best crystal balls…
I posted a link to an actual piece written by a policy expert at a US think tank, who lays out a scenario that others in the defense community have raised as a possibility too.
Reality is that nobody knows what the Chinese will do, but the objective consensus analysis is that they could take those islands with almost no effort and at minimal risk and it would create problems for Taiwan and US. Pretty obvious…
I was responding to your “increasing number of people enrolled” comment.