Discussions about the stock market

Does anyone venture into local stock markets?

What advice do you have?

Is it worth the risk?

What information do you have in English? Or is it all in Chinese?

do you spend a lot of time at the local bourse houses chatting with the wives and retirees about hot tips?

Kenneth

As far as risk, Taiwan’s stock market poses no more risk than any other around the world; it has its ups and it has its downs. As far as reliable information, there’s not a lot in English. But hey, these are stocks and the numbers usually tell all. I’m fortunate, I’ve got my own granny/financial adviser in my mother-in-law. She follows the boards religiously, heading out to the brokerage firm every morning with her biendang and thermos of green tea. So far, she’s always been on the money.

Good luck,
C.K.

First you need to set up a trading account. I have mine with FUBON.

The trading fees are low and there is no capital gains tax.

The TAIEX is extremely volatile. Besides fundamental business considerations, there is a heavy politcal economy equation to consider.

I have had a fairly successful strategy just watching 3 stocks over the past two years with a return of 56%. I was able to do better in the lean times than recently as there was more volatility in the market.

OUCH!!!

Tuesday, Mar 16, 2004

The TAIEX took its biggest dive in almost a year yesterday, shedding 164.26 points, or 2.42 percent, to close at 6635.98 . . .
taipeitimes.com/News/front/a … 2003102630

[quote=“Mother Theresa”]
The TAIEX took its biggest dive in almost a year yesterday, …[/quote]

Great time to buy I woulda thought. :howyoudoin:
What’s low right now that’s bound to climb up again?

[quote=“KenTaiwan98”]Which one do you recommend? Why?

esp. for foreigners who want to trade/invest/lose money :wink:

Kenneth[/quote]

One = broker!

Kenneth

hi!
how long does it take to set up trading a/c for foreigner?

buy on the rumor, sell on this news.

Kenneth

That is good advice Ken, but aren’t you glad you didn’t buy last week? Get ready for the drop.

I am predicting a 1000 point drop in the next week or so, but I hope I’m wrong. I was wrong about the election result, but then so were many.

Kenneth

So soon it will be time to buy.

Anyone out there with any thoughts on how long the slump will last? Days/weeks or months? I read in a paper today it would last less than a quarter, which shocked me, i was thinking more 1 week. Is it worth trying to sell everything in hope of buying in again at a lower price?

Is there anyone out there with some experince in the Taiwanese market with any advice?

[quote=“Rumpelstiltskin”]Anyone out there with any thoughts on how long the slump will last? Days/weeks or months? I read in a paper today it would last less than a quarter, which shocked me, I was thinking more 1 week. Is it worth trying to sell everything in hope of buying in again at a lower price?

Is there anyone out there with some experince in the Taiwanese market with any advice?[/quote]

I have only limited experience, but I do have thoughts and the one quarter prediction sounds too long to me too. On the other hand, one week may be too short. The answer depends largely on how long the uncertainty will remain. How long will it take to (a) recount the votes (b) dispose of Lien’s proposed lawsuit to annul the election and © dispose of the wacko self-assassination conspiracy theories, so that we will again have an answer about the winner of the election; and will Lien accept that answer or will he continue to object and make trouble? On the third hand, resolving all of the above could take a while.

The short answer is that the market hates uncertainty. Once the matter of who is president is definitely resolved, even if its that troublemaker Chen, people can get back to doing business.

Is it worth trying to sell everything and get back in later? That sounds wise to me. Even if you sell tomorrow and it drops 7 percent per day for a week, then you get back in you’ll have done well. My wife and I still own a lot of stock in her company, which has done well regardless of the economy, but tonight we’ll discuss selling it. Taht’s the only Taiwan stock I own presently. I sold my other one last week and am waiting a bit to see what happens before putting that money back in. But whatever you do, please don’t make a decision based on what I say.

Does anyone have a list of the worst performers from last week (15-19. March)?

I think some of those will be my bet.

Mother Theresa, you say you sold your stock last week, seems clear that you shot A-Bian.

Regarding your advice, it does make sense I’m just not sure I’ll be able to find buyers for my stock. Since the price can only drop 7% a day the volume is very low, i.e. only a small number of buyers are able to get out of the market each day. If I put an order in to sell I’m afriad that by the time I get out of the stock the market will have already turned leaving me with little cash and no stock. Everyone is saying the same thing: sell, sell, sell (but it’s a great time to buy).

Do you know of any sources of information in English about stocks in Taiwan, i.e. financial statements, company statements to the market etc. You had some very hand graphs in your earlier posts, where did they come from (I know it said Yahoo on the bottom, but where in Yahoo?)

Thanks

X3M, don’t have a list but basically any stock with close links to DDP was dropping last week (since the feeling was Lien would walk it) I know Taiwan Fertilizer (1722) lost a lot, it’s one of the few stocks not to loose ground today.

I’m planning on buying over several days. I doubt that the TWX is going to be hammered for months; I’d think more along one to two weeks, if that. Some of the drop is warranted – EVA and China Air, since they’d been driven up on speculation that the KMT would establish direct links – but IMHO most of it is just lemmingness.

Any good U.S.-traded mutual funds that focus on Taiwan to recommend? I’ll be buying today, and if the market drops 7% tomorrow I’ll buy another batch tomorrow. And so on, and so on, and. . . .

Now is not time to sell.

Enjoy the ride, A sharp drop and a sudden stop, and then the rebound. I would start buying tomorrow or Wednesday, and then add until the rebound started.

[quote=“Mr He”]Now is not time to sell.

Enjoy the ride, A sharp drop and a sudden stop, and then the rebound. I would start buying tomorrow or Wednesday, and then add until the rebound started.[/quote]

I agree with what you say but, betting on a KMT victory, i fully invested before the election, hence no liquidity.

Latest reports say the election/recount/appeals process could take up to 6 months. I doubt it will be this long but I expect uncertainty till May 20, and the market won’t bottom till at least week or so. I’ve put my money where my mouth is, let’s see what happens…

On further thought, I think MaPo’s right: steep losses in the beginning of this week, leveling off next week. Although it may take a month or two or three till all the recount/annulment/police inquiry BS is completed, at least the greatest uncertainty has probably been resolved: the fact that Taiwan will not slide into total anarchy, rioting and chaos. That possibility is probably behind us, Lien will now switch his tactics to civil legal procedures for venting his dissatisfaction (peppered with slander and wild unfounded accusations), and others can return to business as usual.

Incidentally, I read yesterday that the US market is also expected to decline in the short-term as Israel just assassinated the grand poobah of the Hamas and major retaliation is expected.

In answer to your question, Rumplestiltskin,

“Do you know of any sources of information in English about stocks in Taiwan, i.e. financial statements, company statements to the market etc. You had some very hand graphs in your earlier posts, where did they come from (I know it said Yahoo on the bottom, but where in Yahoo?),”

I believe there is far less information available in English about Taiwan stocks than US stocks. Hon Hai, for example, is one of Taiwan’s major tech success stories and investors regard it highly, but the company simply refuses to share financial and other relevant information. One must invest in them largely based on general information, past performance and trust, (which would ordinarily be foolish). See below:

forbes.com/global/2003/0414/044.html

I believe many other local companies are equally untransparent. . . or maybe they do provide info but only in Chinese. . . but even then I might be a little wary of its accuracy. But certainly one can, and should, do a google search on any company before investing for info about the company’s business, possible lawsuits, new products, rants, raves, etc.

You’re right, even though past performance is no guarantee of future performance, I do like looking at charts. Usually I use the charts at NY Times.com. That website has a nice feature where you can input all your stocks, purchase price, date, etc, to create your own personal portfolio. Then, if you save NY Times.com as a favorite in order to read the paper every morning, you can also check out your portfolio with minimal effort and use their various handy related features. But I don’t believe they chart Taiwan stocks (or at least I never did that there). So I pulled up those charts from finance.yahoo.com. Click on search for symbol, type in the name of the company, click on “world markets” and you’re off.

Looks like it is all government money this morning. If you can find someone to buy, I say sell. I’m trying to sell but no one is buying, all my stocks down 14%, so much for stop loss orders. With a drop in the US markets as well I will probably start buying Thursday or Friday.