Do you think Mandarin will ever become as global as English?

I could be remembering this wrong but my memory of ancient history tells me that the rise and fall of a language has nothing to do with how easy it is to learn, but more to do with the rise and fall of the countries/powers that speak that language.

If this is indeed true, then the answer to this question is another question, “how likely is China to become a global super power?”

Minimal. There won’t be any super powers left, just several centers of power around the world. The rise of English-speaking India will also offset the chances of Mandarin becoming anywhere near as global as English. Given the lack of a major world empire like the British of old, the status quo is likely to continue. English will remain the de facto international language for a long time.

As long as Chinese characters remain the near-exclusive script for Mandarin, then Mandarin has no chance of even remotely approaching – much less equaling or surpassing – English as a global language.

As for the massive boom in Mandarin learning, the situation is very likely that most students are ethnic Chinese who already know some of the language (and may even be native speakers). Good for anybody who studies the language – but it’s going to take more than that for even a smidgen of the massive hype about Mandarin learning to be true.

BTW, this seems to be a topic of interest lately. The widely read Huffington Post just took this up: 你说啥?Three Guesses at a Global Chinese Language Future.

Would the history of latin not also serve as an example for the future of English in case the English speaking centres of the world went ‘poof’?

latin continued as the lingua franca in Europe for at least another millennium.

Once there IS a lingua franca, it seems that it should have its own momentum. Anybody wishing to learn an international language will choose English first, just because it is already so widespread. Nobody in their right mind would choose Mandarin instead. :laughing:

Not just ancient history, but all history, i.e. you are remembering it wrong. Before English there was never a Global Lingua Franca. There were regional or maybe even continental languages (Greek, Latin, Chinese in the East etc), but never anything to the extent of English all over the world. In this, English in the last four hundred years is unique in history.

​​[quote=“pqkdzrwt”]If this is indeed true, then the answer to this question is another question, “how likely is China to become a global super power?”[/quote]
Highly unlikely, as China will never be in a geographic position to dominate the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific simultaneously. The US Navy is a constant dominant presence in all the major oceans and strategic chokepoints, European naval forces are a major force in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean with continued limited presence everywhere else (and allied with the US), and apart from the US Navy the Indian Navy is by far the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean and would be quite capable of taking on and defeating the PLA-N, as well as being able to project force further east if necessary. Even Thailand has an established carrier capability. Added to that, Japanese surface vessels and conventional submarines are far superior to anything the PLA-N has.
So, unless the PRC finds another way (military satellites capable of destroying naval fleets and ground forces) to dominate the world’s oceans, and therefore control maritime trade, it’s not going to happen.

[quote=“Mr He”]Would the history of latin not also serve as an example for the future of English in case the English speaking centres of the world went ‘poof’?

latin continued as the lingua franca in Europe for at least another millennium.[/quote]
Latin was only a regional/continental lingua franca, not a global one and it had on it’s side that French (therefore English to an extent), Portuguese, Spanish and Italian were direct descendants of Latin anyway. But sure, even globally, your point is very valid IMO, because of countries like India.

Edit: I should also say that I think it’s much more likely that English will adapt and change and become even more simpler and assimilate more language from other languages (like Chinese). It’s much more probable that the English of 50 or 100 years in the future will be a lot more different than the English from 50 or 100 years ago is from English today. :2cents: