Dow 6000

Taiwan property. Jimmy Lai is a big buyer just now, apparently. The knock on could be for property related plays - Taifert, etc. Not seen how that’s done in awhile.

HG

Thanks Mr. Chen, yes I hear tale that Mr. Ma has a plan to try and boost housing etc.

Folks excuse this for being a bit off topic, but thought you may enjoy this: This stock is being listed as a strong buy on a pretty popular newsletter, then today I see it dropping about 60% at one point and find this little article. Ineresting to see that Mark Cuban’s name and his short position as well.

sharesleuth.com/2008/03/china_fi … .html#more

“the sole American on China Fire’s board of directors, Gene Michael Bennett, does not have the law degree that he claimed. And contrary to what China Fire said in its press release announcing his appointment, he is not a Certified Public Accountant and has not been licensed as one in the United States for many years.”

Yes, I’ve had it for a few years, although I’ve bought and sold a couple times since then, and I’ll probably hold it for the long term. Although it’s your own damn fault if you listen to me and lose money as a result, I wish I’d put everything in there.

1 day +5.7%
3 mo +23%
6 mo + 42%
1 yr +63%
5 yr +233%
10 yr + 199%
15 yr +683%

I wouldn’t buy it now, though, as I believe it’s due for a slight correction.

No.

I’m sure many are cheap now, but I’m sure many are far from the bottom.

Btw, if you want to see a scary picture of a stock that appeared to be doing great for over a decade then plunged straight off a cliff, click on this and look at the max timeframe. Yikes!

[quote=“kfed”]Folks excuse this for being a bit off topic, but thought you may enjoy this: This stock is being listed as a strong buy on a pretty popular newsletter, then today I see it dropping about 60% at one point and find this little article. Ineresting to see that Mark Cuban’s name and his short position as well.

sharesleuth.com/2008/03/china_fi … .html#more

“the sole American on China Fire’s board of directors, Gene Michael Bennett, does not have the law degree that he claimed. And contrary to what China Fire said in its press release announcing his appointment, he is not a Certified Public Accountant and has not been licensed as one in the United States for many years.”[/quote]

:laughing:

Coporate g-o-v-e-r-n-a-n-c-e!

HG

Do you cats have an opinion or experience with Baidu? Can it maintain its hold on the Chinese market?

What about Garmin?

Does Taiwan now have Taco Bell? Or is this still a no go?

I don’t know charts, but my two cents would be to see what Dr. Marc Faber is saying and perhaps get some ideas from him. He called the 87 market crash and is pretty smart.

He called this one too. He’s been saying buy gold for a few years now.

HG

Never heard of the guy, and I’m a little sceptical of the claims made about him, but he’s interesting nonetheless. Here’s what he said last Saturday.

[quote]Swiss economist and investment adviser Marc Faber became known as Dr. Doom after predicting, with varying timeliness, the crash of stock markets in 1987, the Japanese market meltdown starting in 1990, the Asian crisis in 1997 and later the collapse of U.S. technology stocks.

About seven years ago, Faber was ahead of the pack again. From his base in Hong Kong, he foresaw an Asian boom that would raise living standards there and drive up the price of just about every raw material, including oil and gold.

Nations abundant with commodities, such as Canada, would go along for the ride. Meanwhile, mounting debt in the United States would send the U.S. dollar into a long tailspin, Faber predicted.

A Canadian investor who acted on the advice would have profited handsomely.

Today, though, it’s harder to be a contrarian. The trends Faber predicted have played out for a few years now. Many market players are hot for commodities and cold on the U.S. greenback.

Faber says he sees far fewer investment opportunities, and he is urging caution.

Stocks in China and India could fall 30 per cent to 40 per cent on top of recent drops, he warns.

Bonds could tumble in value along with metals and real estate.

“All commodities, in my opinion, are vulnerable to a correction,” Faber warned in a telephone interview with the Toronto Star this week.

“I would say that anyone who cannot tolerate a correction of 20 per cent should not be in anything.”

Still, Faber remains a long-term gold bull. With prices nearing $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce this week, gold has risen so high in price he says some other bullion lovers he knows have already returned to cash. He has not. He thinks the metal could pass $3,000 an ounce, if only temporarily, like in the spike of the early 1980s. But the price could also fall sharply first. . . [/quote]
thestar.com/Business/article/326371

He’s a funny dude alright. Ive seen him talk several times. He quite frequently uses examples based on the economic choices of Thai hookers in a certain HK freelance bar. I’ve seen him there a few times holding court.

Another theme, from memory, and this was from almost a year ago, was to buy a farm. He reckons soft commodity prices (food) will run hard in the coming years as global arable land use shifts to fuel use (already happening), and housing. The latter especially so in China.

HG

Dear Mother Teresa, Thanks for the snippet from Marc. Re Faber’s credentials, he is very contrarian, but every year end when Barron’s has their round-table with Abby Cohen of Goldman, Morgan Stanley Roache, etc. Marc is also there. Marc also has an appetite for fine wine, he killed more than a bottle at a party of mine!

[quote=“Mother Theresa”]HA HA HA!!!

Maposquid was wrong! The sky’s not falling. All is well in the world!

[quote] Dow Climbs 416.66 for Its Biggest Gain in Over 5 Years

Tra la la la la da da dee da. . . :dance:

I wish. The reality is, this brings us back to where we were on Friday. I know there’s still the rest of 2008 to contend with. :s[/quote][/quote]
Yeah, Bend-Over Ben cost me twelve grand in one day. That bastard.

Unfortunately, while the sky isn’t falling, the market is. I really don’t see a bottom at this point. And those “ultrashort” funds have significant counterparty risk – on TickerForum, some people are talking about getting out of them because if the counterparties go bankrupt, the funds could lose money even while the market tanks (because the money the counterparties owe them won’t get paid).

They’re saying that options are still relatively safe, because the options clearing system has been through significant collapses before and has not defaulted, but ultrashorts are a new idea and a new product and they haven’t been through anything like this in their brief history.

I don’t know what to do at this point. Even going to cash isn’t necessarily safe, since so many banks – LARGE retail banks – are on the verge of failure that there’s simply no way in hell that the FDIC will be able to handle it. Or survive after the first few failures.

[quote=“MaPoSquid”]
Unfortunately, while the sky isn’t falling, the market is. I really don’t see a bottom at this point. And those “ultrashort” funds have significant counterparty risk – on TickerForum, some people are talking about getting out of them because if the counterparties go bankrupt, the funds could lose money even while the market tanks (because the money the counterparties owe them won’t get paid). [/quote]

Now, that will be a nasty one, you can’t really bet that the market goes down anymore out of risk that the person you are betting against won’t be solvent enough to settle the bet once the time comes.

[quote=“MaPoSquid”]

I don’t know what to do at this point. Even going to cash isn’t necessarily safe, since so many banks – LARGE retail banks – are on the verge of failure that there’s simply no way in hell that the FDIC will be able to handle it. Or survive after the first few failures. [/quote]

I really hope you are wrong on this one. I really do. What you are worrying about is a systemic collapse of the global finance system, and I don’t hope that we will get anywhere near there. If enough people start to think that way, the world economy is up shit creek shorter than an ultrashort on propulsion.

The ,logical investment strategy if people think that this will paly out would be gold ingots stored in a safe somewhere safe, IE not a financial institution, or have them ingots digged down somewhere.

How about YUM Brands (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, etc.)? People will always eat junk food in good times or bad, YUM has increasing revenue and great plans for expansion in China, to tap into its 1.3B consumers, and it looks to me like it’s poised to continue its nice gains (+26 over 1 year; +390% over 10 years). Or maybe not? What do you think?

Mother,

a few thoughts on YUM.

Yum, operates 35,000 locations, with about 3,000 in mainland.

I have been considering this company; my only hang up is the poor service in many US locations. However, the reality is that this has always been the case, and people continue to return. This is the story with most fastfood in the US other than Chic Fila.

So I am considering it now as an international play with a basic product and a successful record.

Currently the China Division (which includes Thailand and Taiwan) accounts for about 21% of revenues, up from 12% three years ago.

Management has stated publicly that it plans to grow to 15,000 locations (from 3,000) in China in the next few years. The company plans on focusing growth in China’s second tier cities.

Yum! Brands appoints new vice chairman
Monday 03/17/2008 11:53 AM ET - Datamonitor

Yum! Brands has appointed Sam Su to its board of directors as vice chairman, maintaining his position as president of the China division.

Sam Su will continue to reside in Shanghai in this capacity for the long-term.

The China division operates across 450 cities in Mainland China, with 2,140 KFC quick service restaurants, 351 Pizza Hut casual dining restaurants, and 53 Pizza Hut Home Service units.

David Novak, chairman and CEO of Yum! Brands, said: “Sam Su is the pre-eminent pioneer of a booming restaurant category in the world’s fastest growing economy. He is doing an outstanding job building leading brands in China in every significant restaurant category, which is our number one growth strategy.”

Back on topic before you make me split this out:

Wouldn’t Yum! brands be a fair bit cheaper in say 4-6 months if the stock is caught in the current downdraft?

250+ and counting, rumors of a full percentage point to be shaved off of interest rates…

Downdraft? What downdraft?

[color=green]Dow up 3.51%
Nasdaq up 4.19%
S&P500 up 4.24%
[/color]

[quote] Dow Surges 420 Points on Fed Rate Cut and Earnings

Casting aside any hesitation about an aggressive interest rate cut, investors sent stocks soaring to their highest gains in five years on Tuesday as shares of financial firms surged in the hopes that the Federal Reserve has finally taken hold of the credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 420 points.

The surge began at the opening bell after two big investment banks, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs, delivered stronger-than-expected earnings. It faltered only briefly after the Fed’s announcement in the afternoon that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a point, with the Dow tacking on nearly 300 points in the final hour and a half.

. . . . The rally capped a week of extraordinary efforts on the part of the central bank to restore confidence to financial markets after the near collapse of Bear Stearns, one of Wall Street’s most venerable investment banks.

The three-quarter point cut amounted to a strong dose of financial adrenaline, though some investors had expected an even deeper cut. . . .[/quote]
nytimes.com/2008/03/18/busin … ref=slogin

Ouch, that’s gotta hurt MaPoSquid.

Citi up 10% last night.
Ambac Financial up 15%.
Countrywide up 25%.
SKF down 15%.

But, don’t worry, we’re not out the woods yet.

That’s a good selling opportunity. Excellent. If you have not sold today, do it tomorrow.