Looks like the DPP-PFP cooperation is over. Chen accused Soong of meeting secretly with Chinese officials in Washington and selling out Taiwanese democracy by saying that independence is not an option. See the article from today’s China Times.
I think several things are going. The National Assembly elections are shaping up to be much more important than anybody thought. Turnout is going to be low (I’m hearing < 40%), so it’s going to be an organizational effort. I’m guessing that the KMT has been too distracted with the Lien visit to China to have been doing much organizing, while the DPP has been advertising fairly heavily.
The election is important not just because the proposed reforms to how the LY is re-elected will have far-reaching consequences, but also because the deep blues are stiffening their resistance to making the right to referendums part of the constitution. They fear (correctly) that this lays the groundwork for Taiwan’s de jure independence and I suspect that they have been told by their masters in Beijing to oppose this.
The election is also important because if the DPP wins big, they will be able to say (misleadingly) that public opinion has turned against Lien and Soong.
I think Chen is also finshed with Soong because their ‘cooperation’ has not been substantive–no major bills including the weapons purchase have been passed.
Chen is gambling that he can tell middle-of-the-road voters that he tried but failed to cooperate with the opposition. And he may be able to rally the greens to get out to the polls and let him claim a public relations victory.
If he pulls this one off, I’m going to be impressed. He may just do it. I think Soong and Lien have made comments in China that will come back to haunt them in their political graves.