DPP-PFP Cooperation Finished

Looks like the DPP-PFP cooperation is over. Chen accused Soong of meeting secretly with Chinese officials in Washington and selling out Taiwanese democracy by saying that independence is not an option. See the article from today’s China Times.

news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/n … 04,00.html

I think several things are going. The National Assembly elections are shaping up to be much more important than anybody thought. Turnout is going to be low (I’m hearing < 40%), so it’s going to be an organizational effort. I’m guessing that the KMT has been too distracted with the Lien visit to China to have been doing much organizing, while the DPP has been advertising fairly heavily.

The election is important not just because the proposed reforms to how the LY is re-elected will have far-reaching consequences, but also because the deep blues are stiffening their resistance to making the right to referendums part of the constitution. They fear (correctly) that this lays the groundwork for Taiwan’s de jure independence and I suspect that they have been told by their masters in Beijing to oppose this.

The election is also important because if the DPP wins big, they will be able to say (misleadingly) that public opinion has turned against Lien and Soong.

I think Chen is also finshed with Soong because their ‘cooperation’ has not been substantive–no major bills including the weapons purchase have been passed.

Chen is gambling that he can tell middle-of-the-road voters that he tried but failed to cooperate with the opposition. And he may be able to rally the greens to get out to the polls and let him claim a public relations victory.

If he pulls this one off, I’m going to be impressed. He may just do it. I think Soong and Lien have made comments in China that will come back to haunt them in their political graves.

Not that I can’t sympathize with Chen’s difficult situation, but I think his integrity is very much in question here.

James Soong visited the US when? Around January.

Chen made that faustian deal with Soong in late February. (Please correct me if I’m wrong.)

Now Chen is saying that Soong met with Chinese officials while in the US, and hinting that the Chinese told him to block the incorporation of referendum rights into the Constitution.

Now, when did he find out about all this? Is he saying that he didn’t know about it when he made the deal?

Thank god the green supporters have been quick to show their displeasure with this son of a Tainan gun. Otherwise, I really wonder how far he’s going to go.

Yeah, principle is the last thing you need in politics.

Chen is following in the footsteps of the good old Colin “no sovereignty for Taiwan” Powell. But not quite. Now that he’s losing his core supporters he’s made another dizzying turn.

By which you mean the PFP are planning on voting against it. AFAIK the KMT are still supporting the constitutional change.

How so? Note that the TSU are also planning on voting against the reform. You could argue that the changes make it harder to declare independence; at the moment, you need a majority vote in the National Assembly to change the constitution - while after this change you’ll need over 50% of all eligible voters to vote for it in a referendum. (If we assume 40% turnout for this election, then you’re only talking about just over 20% of people voting for constitutional change with the current system).

So what? There are opinion polls every week in Taiwan. This is just an opinion poll where ~60% refuse to answer. Actually, the DPP seem to be the only ones who are campaining on the issues of this election; the KMT are treating it as a popularity contest, while the TSU & PFP seem to be keeping a rather embarrassed silence.

I suspect very few middle-of-the-road people will bother voting. It’s only hardcore supporters who will turnout.

I’m even surprised it lasted this long…
I’m glad Chen is now back in business.

Yes I agree, both Lien and Soong will be haunted by what they’ve said in China, as well as what they didn’t.