Economic prospects of Taiwan

Taiwan is strenghtening its ties with China, which is a tremendous advantage economically. However, it also faces problems similar to Japan such as an extremely low birthrate and a reluctance to rely on immigration which in theory could be threatening its future. But is it? Is it such a big deal to have less people? How do you think Taiwan will do economically? Looking at Singapore and Hong Kong, encouraging immigration seems like a winning strategy. Taiwan does seem to be lagging behind these countries in terms of GDP per capita.

As a personal opinion, Taiwan should probably further develop its service sector, much like Singapore and Hong Kong. What skills do you think would be particularly in demand in Taiwan in the future?

Everybody is strengthening ties with China, doesn’t mean much after a while.

Is this for an MBA paper or something?
Service sectors can be almost anything, probably could do with finance and design and research and healthcare type jobs. Also bring in more foreign students to study here

The

IMO, I don’t think encouraging immigration was a winning strategy for S’pore and HK, sure it worked for the first few years but then it just went crazy. They should have controlled immigration for highly-skilled workers. It’s so crowded in those 2 places.

Taiwan has much the same problems of S.Korea. Innovation is sorely lacking. (Apart from Samsung which tbh isn’t THAT innovative)

Tell that to those people in their 30s who are paying into a retirement fund that has already stated that it will go bust in about 15 years or so.

[quote=“hs172”]IMO, I don’t think encouraging immigration was a winning strategy for S’pore and HK, sure it worked for the first few years but then it just went crazy. They should have controlled immigration for highly-skilled workers. It’s so crowded in those 2 places.

Taiwan has much the same problems of S.Korea. Innovation is sorely lacking. (Apart from Samsung which tbh isn’t THAT innovative)[/quote]

Yeah, and yet, Taiwan, Korea and Japan are among the top patent application countries. Perhaps because these are mostly incremental innovations.

Immigration in my opinion is a driving force for innovation. Let’s bring people in with different ways of thinking and an entrepreurial drive. Asians tend to all think in the same way. And I would stay away from a selection system such as the one introduced (or perhaps not yet) in Japan. These requirements are so stringent that it is difficult to see it as being something else than arrogance. With such a system, there is not way a guy like Gates or Jobs would have succeeded in Japan. You dropped college? In Japan, you’re disqualified, that’s it. No second chance.

They are also not as great risk takers as they think they are ,as evidenced by the lack of VC funds.

The problem with that opinion is that you’re assuming Taiwan is an attractive place for innovative people.

[quote=“MyOnlyFriend”]Taiwan is strenghtening its ties with China, which is a tremendous advantage economically. However, it also faces problems similar to Japan such as an extremely low birthrate and a reluctance to rely on immigration which in theory could be threatening its future. But is it? Is it such a big deal to have less people? How do you think Taiwan will do economically? Looking at Singapore and Hong Kong, encouraging immigration seems like a winning strategy. Taiwan does seem to be lagging behind these countries in terms of GDP per capita.

As a personal opinion, Taiwan should probably further develop its service sector, much like Singapore and Hong Kong. What skills do you think would be particularly in demand in Taiwan in the future?[/quote]

Definitely English language skills.

You can’t compare city-states like Singapore and HK, to a certain degree, to Taiwan. Whole different mouths to feed

Pensions can’t invest in VC like they can in America, so that’s one of the biggest reasons for the difference.

However, the risk point is still valid, as Taiwan has basically no market for less than investment grade bonds. Although people foolishly gamble away money in the stock market, so there’s that.

[quote=“MyOnlyFriend”][quote=“hs172”]IMO, I don’t think encouraging immigration was a winning strategy for S’pore and HK, sure it worked for the first few years but then it just went crazy. They should have controlled immigration for highly-skilled workers. It’s so crowded in those 2 places.

Taiwan has much the same problems of S.Korea. Innovation is sorely lacking. (Apart from Samsung which tbh isn’t THAT innovative)[/quote]

Yeah, and yet, Taiwan, Korea and Japan are among the top patent application countries. Perhaps because these are mostly incremental innovations.[/quote]

Nowadays, major tech companies use patent laws defensively, which has the effect of artificially inflating the number of patent numbers to the number of actually new, tangible products and physical designs for products.

Here’s a classic example: Match.com’s compatibility algorithm is patented. I watched a mathematician explain how it works, and it’s basically a matrix equation. But who in the friggin’ universe would believe that a company had proprietary rights to a computational procedure?

A friend of mine put it best regarding patent suits in the common age (loosely): “If you can patent automatic computational procedures, then the Turing family is the official patent owner of everything that a computer runs.” Turing would have enjoyed the wealth himself, that is if UK government at the time hadn’t irrationally deemed homos threats to national security and public decency.

Wow, you can patent something so basic? I mean, something that fundamental… :astonished:

Yes you can patent business processes, which in this case is a computer algorithim. It is kind of crazy if you think about it.
There are some infamous cases, such as the Amazon One-click. Yes one click buying is patented.

For me I have major problems with patenting of human genes. That’s something that we inherited, so how can they be patented?

The US PTO needs to be completely re-organised and patent law needs to changed, the biggest and most effective change would be to shorten patent expiration dates.

It’s a fact that most patents are weak if you have the money to do prior discovery, if anything has been published openly prior to the patent filing date you have a good case for invalidation, the problem is it can cost massive amounts of money to do this. So they say patents are generally only as good as how much money you have in your pockets to back them up.

Excuse me all, but I have just patented Submit. Please desist from posting on this forum until I have sorted out payment issues with the management.

Come find me Mucha Man!

hits submit and drives away

I have patented the word Man ever since I turned 21 and you two have fallen foul of my manliness, unless you can compete with enough testosterone to power 3 full grown bulls, and a mane that would make your average gorilla blush, you are going to have a high time geting that patent invalidated.
Time to pony up boys.

Taiwan’s economic prospects are not that great because neither the government nor the Taiwanese people are willing to make the changes that need to be made. Also, the lack of investment in Taiwan because most investment is being made in China (and has been for most of the last two decades) is really hurting Taiwan now. Still, the Taiwanese are hard working and entrepreneurial so some progress will be made despite the government. That goes for the DPP as well as the KMT. No one in Taiwan has any serious ideas or the political capital to do anything.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Yes you can patent business processes, which in this case is a computer algorithim. It is kind of crazy if you think about it.
There are some infamous cases, such as the Amazon One-click. Yes one click buying is patented.

For me I have major problems with patenting of human genes. That’s something that we inherited, so how can they be patented?

The US PTO needs to be completely re-organised and patent law needs to changed, the biggest and most effective change would be to shorten patent expiration dates.

It’s a fact that most patents are weak if you have the money to do prior discovery, if anything has been published openly prior to the patent filing date you have a good case for invalidation, the problem is it can cost massive amounts of money to do this. So they say patents are generally only as good as how much money you have in your pockets to back them up.[/quote]

HH I understood that Taiwan had never signed up to the Strasbourg agreement (concerning Patents and classification) which I imagine would make it harder for Foreign Patent holders to stop Taiwanese companies making product here, what they can’t do is Market/sell in the participating Markets? Maybe I am wrong? Interesting.

Well there are actually patent lawyers here who will know the score, suffice to say patents need to be filed in each country to be applicable.

Taiwan badly needs investment with record low investment totals over the last two years and 100s of billions flowing offshore and into China.
However I don’t think we need big polluting chemical factories or more empty science parks or free trade zones like they are promoting now, all schemes to enrich local politicians thru land rezoning. Somebody please tell me how Taiwan is different than China in this regard, at least in agricultural areas

The government with their focus on Ecfa have failed to implement bilateral trade deals with other countries leaving Taiwan at a major disadvantage in the ‘terms of trade’. This is an inforgivable mistake for an export dependent nation.

The mindset of locals need to change too, they need to engage more with the world and change their thinking in terms of work and education. They need to stop focusing all the time on Taiwan and China and learn more about the world especially SE Asia, stop thinking they are better than others when they are not. They also need a big influx of foreign talent and need to attract emigrants to come back too. That means they should clean up the environment and improve the country overall to attract people to live here.

As recently reported Taiwan has no national spatial development strategy and no long term water resource protection plan. Even if it did would the plan be followed and enforced? Weakness in governance is a big problem too.

If they grow these sectors, will foreigners be able to fill the jobs?