Fellow Aussies - to buy or not to buy AUD?

To those of us watching in dismay as the AUD continues its climb I am wondering to buy or not to buy? Any educated guesses would be most welcomed as I just read speculations on $0.80 USD for mid 2004.
cHEERS.

Don’t buy.

If it fhas risen for a long time, then odds are that it has risen to a level, where it will either flatten out or will start to fall.

Remember, that Oz relies on natural resources for their forex, in that moment the high oil and mineral prices start to take their toll on the US economy, the demand will diminish, the prices will fall, and the aussie dollar will fall with them.

Weakness is predicted for the dollar. You might want to buy that instead, as thw crowd is usually wrong.

You might consider buying US dollars and then buying Aussie when the US dollar catches back up. The way things are looking though, you might have to wait quite awhile…

Good luck,
C.K.

Thanks again really, for all the advice - any specualtions of a higher NT on post election KMT/DPP scenarios?
Cheers

I still have a credit card debt down under, which has effectively increased 20% due to currency movements. Don’t worry, one more payment (in April) will see the end of it and then the NT$ will start to increase in relative value again.

This happens to me everywhere I go.

I think that the NT$ will not be allowed to appreciate any further against the dollar, IE you will see local policymakers trying to keep it low.

The reason is that Taiwan will loose competitiveness if the NT rise too much.

I am currently in Australia working and transferring $ back to Taiwan. Needless to say, I am having a great time! :laughing:

I look forward to being corrected but I thought Australia had contracted commodities prices into the US dollar. In any case the Australian government are always eager to keep the Aussie dollar low.

In any case I agree with Mr He. The Aussies run up so far that to jump in now would be risky. Sitting as I am now in HK there’s lots of speculation for a rise in the renminbi . . . though the Chinese government do seem rather determined to maintain the peg and let time and cycles ease some of the pressure. Nonetheless I recently had a friend in Taipei ask me to grab some commie coin for her.

HG

Re Aussie dollar - they are now starting to pump up interest rates so this “should” stop the dollar’s climb - right?

Re Renminbi - would you recommend buying renminbi at the current NT value? Would this be long term investment? Cheers.

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]I look forward to being corrected but I thought Australia had contracted commodities prices into the US dollar. In any case the Australian government are always eager to keep the Aussie dollar low.

In any case I agree with Mr He. The Aussies run up so far that to jump in now would be risky. Sitting as I am now in HK there’s lots of speculation for a rise in the renminbi . . . though the Chinese government do seem rather determined to maintain the peg and let time and cycles ease some of the pressure. Nonetheless I recently had a friend in Taipei ask me to grab some commie coin for her.

HG[/quote]

I just converted some AUD savings back to NT and to the USD.

Saved at 18 to 20NT and converted back at 25 to 26 NT. It’s hard to pass up.

There is lots of pressure on the USD at the moment to appreciate. Nobody bar the Americans want to see the USD so low. Also with the pick up in the US stock market, and bubble forming in US housing the FED will be under pressure to raise interest rates. That will give a genuine sustained boost to the USD.

As for the interest rate differential between the AUD and the USD. There will also be an election in Australia by the end of this year. I think the Australian Reserve Bank is loathe to raise interest rates for political reasons. That is the bubble in the housing market. This wouldn’t do the ruling Liberal Party much good with the high degree of home ownership in Australia. I know that the RBA is supposed to be independent, but these are also political appointments.

Many people are betting on an appreciation in the RMB. Under WTO rules it must in the next two years be a tradeable currency. For stabilities sake people are speculating that the Chinese will allow it to appreciate ahead of this time. This is my understanding.

I hope.