Here is an argument essay topic from the GRE Analytical Writing Assessment. The object is to find the assumptions, or holes in logic, that make the argument less persuasive than it could be. There are at least three assumptions here:
Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor’s direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.
[quote=“Tomas”]Here is an argument essay topic from the GRE Analytical Writing Assessment. The object is to find the assumptions, or holes in logic, that make the argument less persuasive than it could be. There are at least three assumptions here:
Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor’s direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.
Can you spot the assumptions?[/quote]
Don’t know. Let’s see:
“25% … 75% …” Assumption that Zorba caused the different outcomes. Many other things could have been responsible. Other medication, lifestyle, etc.
“Clearly, then, …” - See # 1.
“…many first-time ulcers can be …” The study looked at people who already had ulcers, not those who were ulcer-free and took Zorba as a preventative measure.
[quote=“Tomas”]Here is an argument essay topic from the GRE Analytical Writing Assessment. The object is to find the assumptions, or holes in logic, that make the argument less persuasive than it could be. There are at least three assumptions here:
Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor’s direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.
Can you spot the assumptions?[/quote]
Seeker4’s 3rd point is the biggest.
That the follow-up period was long enough to be meaningful and was the same in both groups.
That ulcer recurrence is that same as development of a new ulcer in patients with existing or previous ulcers.
That a placebo was given.
That the treatment and non-treatment group were selected randomly and otherwise similar in terms of medical history, sex, age, concurrent medications, etc.
That the sample size was big enough and that the difference in recurrence rates was statistically significant.
That there were no adverse effects bad enough to offset the benefits, especially if you assume that Zorba prevents first-time ulcers as well and can be applied to the general population.
That (assuming the above) the reduction in recurrence rate achieved with Zorba is better than that achieved with existing medications.