Flashpoint: Taiwan Straits. The ROCN vs the PLAN

[quote=“Bubba 2 Guns”]What is the mainland’s plan after attacking Taiwan?

Do they have a plan to rebuild after invasion?[/quote]
I’d imagine Beijing would start by appointing a ‘local’ government, made up of Taiwanese figures that are considered reliable. I’d expect hard-core pan-Blue politicians combined with leading business figures who’s primary focus would be administering, efficiently and stably, post-invasion Taiwan.

A new mini-constitution (similar to HK’s “basic law”) would be drafted and announced quickly, which would probably guarantee local democracy/rights, but with a requirement that new laws can not violate the PRC constitution. If Beijing is wise, there’ll be an immediate announcement of a timetable of when the new election will occur. The PLA will also lie low on the streets and rely on existing Taiwanese public-security forces to maintain every day order.

Key distinction from Iraq: the focus will be on “returning life to normal”, rather than building a “new Taiwan”. There’s no revolutionary re-working of Taiwan’s social or political structure, no de-Baathification campaign aimed at the DPP, no settlement of scores by anyone against anyone else, no public trials of independence activists followed by their executions. There’s no mainland official appointed to re-design Taiwan from the ground up. The Taiwanese military will be de-fanged only to the degree that it can’t stop future invasions, but will otherwise continue to function in its current form.

That’s my guess.

Well, thanks for an honest answer.

Actually after a second reading -what you are describing is how Taiwan is currently run.

Don’t you think there will be a stubborn resistence after the invasion-insurgency etc. I’ve hung around the computer market and I bet the Taiwanese could wire up bombs way better than the Iraqi’s. Also lots of mobility here with scooters etc.

Why would the PRC believe that local politicians wouldn’t just tuck tail and immigrate to Calgary?

Hong Kong was a cake walk-could the same rule of law apply?

I think the US went into Vietnam thinking that it would just be another Guatamala in the beginning, could Taiwan be a set up for the PRC?

Also there would be a mass existing of refugees-is the PRC ready for this or will it just let the UN foot the bill?

Will many Taiwanese stay and welcome the PRC if given the chance to have refugee status and leave? The HKers weren’t really given war refugee priority. Maybe Taiwan will just be a ghost town and the PRC will just have a little looting party then clean up the betel nut stains on the sidewalk.

It seems to make more sense for the PRC to invade Iraq because they’ll be using that oil anyway in the future.

I better wander back to cars and motorcycles forum for now.

Bubba,

Just in practical terms… Iraq was flooded with huge amounts of explosives, and obviously a healthy dose of suicidal, unemployed maniacs. Taiwan doesn’t have much of the former, and just about everyone in Taiwan has a career in mind. Vietnam is definitely a different world all together. The NVA had essentially been fighting against colonialists for 2 decades before the United States showed up.

But yes, the point is exactly what you said… it is what Taiwan has now. Beijing has no motivation or reason to change anything in Taiwan, other than limiting its ability to declare Taiwanese territory as something other than being Chinese.

I personally do expect there will be a significant out-migration to the United States/Canada… but it probably won’t be a huge number, nothing like the Vietnamese boat people. The richer classes in Taiwan tend to be invested in the mainland already anyways, and aren’t ideologically opposed to this. The farmers who may be ideologically opposed can’t afford to leave anyways.

[quote=“cctang”]Bubba,

Just in practical terms… Iraq was flooded with huge amounts of explosives, and obviously a healthy dose of suicidal, unemployed maniacs. Taiwan doesn’t have much of the former, and just about everyone in Taiwan has a career in mind. Vietnam is definitely a different world all together. The NVA had essentially been fighting against colonialists for 2 decades before the United States showed up.

But yes, the point is exactly what you said… it is what Taiwan has now. Beijing has no motivation or reason to change anything in Taiwan, other than limiting its ability to declare Taiwanese territory as something other than being Chinese.

I personally do expect there will be a significant out-migration to the United States/Canada… but it probably won’t be a huge number, nothing like the Vietnamese boat people. The richer classes in Taiwan tend to be invested in the mainland already anyways, and aren’t ideologically opposed to this. The farmers who may be ideologically opposed can’t afford to leave anyways.[/quote]

So what you have written reads to me as: The rich welcome communism because it will protect their investments and the poor can’t afford an opinion when faced with with deciding between democracy and a strict socialist state. That doesn’t sound like communism to me.

Maybe Vietnam would be a bad comparison anyway.

Why can’t the people in Taiwan decide their fate? Why are the mainlanders opposed to them having free will?

I know I read something where you said it would be like a state in the US seceding and that has happened and we fought a war over it. But I think that’s an unfair model to compare it to as well.

Thanks again for your honest answer.

[quote=“cctang”][quote=“Bubba 2 Guns”]What is the mainland’s plan after attacking Taiwan?
Do they have a plan to rebuild after invasion?[/quote]
I’d imagine Beijing would start by appointing a ‘local’ government, made up of Taiwanese figures that are considered reliable. I’d expect hard-core pan-Blue politicians combined with leading business figures who’s primary focus would be administering, efficiently and stably, post-invasion Taiwan.

A new mini-constitution (similar to HK’s “basic law”) would be drafted and announced quickly, which would probably guarantee local democracy/rights, but with a requirement that new laws can not violate the PRC constitution. If Beijing is wise, there’ll be an immediate announcement of a timetable of when the new election will occur. The PLA will also lie low on the streets and rely on existing Taiwanese public-security forces to maintain every day order.

Key distinction from Iraq: the focus will be on “returning life to normal”, rather than building a “new Taiwan”. There’s no revolutionary re-working of Taiwan’s social or political structure, no de-Baathification campaign aimed at the DPP, no settlement of scores by anyone against anyone else, no public trials of independence activists followed by their executions. There’s no mainland official appointed to re-design Taiwan from the ground up. The Taiwanese military will be de-fanged only to the degree that it can’t stop future invasions, but will otherwise continue to function in its current form.

That’s my guess.[/quote]c.c. -
A year or so ago there was a thread discussing Ma and his plans for Taiwan if elected. My response dove-tails pretty well with what you have put forth here.
However, what is not being considered is the response of other regional players into the PRC/PLA/PLAN attack on Taiwan. I think that aspect is crucial to any discussion of this topic.
I do not see this as being a totally ‘Taiwan - PRC’ episode. I look for involvement, on varying degrees of scale by other regional and possibly a few non-regional actors in a situation such as the ‘conquest of Taiwan.’

Because Taiwanese are opportunist at heart. From the original Mainland settlers 400 years ago, to those that survived the Japanese, and those that survived the KMT.

Generations of upon generation of people selected to follow the most powerful in the region. Kind of sad in a sense.

Philosophically speaking Taiwan culture doesn’t breed leadership. Those with any ambition and ability left the island long ago already.

:laughing: :laughing: :laughing: . Because free will is an illusion. The basic paradigm discussed by Nietzsche is that everyone must succumb to people of greater will. What was the last great success any of the Taiwanese leaders can claim in recent history as a testiment to their will to succeed?

My point exactly.

[quote=“Bubba 2 Guns”]Why can’t the people in Taiwan decide their fate? Why are the mainlanders opposed to them having free will?

I know I read something where you said it would be like a state in the US seceding and that has happened and we fought a war over it. But I think that’s an unfair model to compare it to as well.

Thanks again for your honest answer.[/quote]
This is a tangent that will make this thread sound like 1000 other threads on this forum… but I’ll give my response anyways.

It’s not about free will. This isn’t slavery; any individual Taiwanese can live his life however he sees fit. This is about the land, the territory, the history, the society that resides on Taiwan. As far as I’m concerned, by fluke of history or fate, “Taiwan” is part of China. Any decision should respect the interests and desires of all Chinese.

This is where it’s like a state, or a county, or a city in the US seceding. I think it’s perfectly understandable if Americans would be outraged (or at least unsupportive) if I purchased a ranch in Montana and unilaterally declared it to be Chinese territory… free of American law/sovereignty. Why can’t I have my free will…?

[quote=“TainanCowboy”]However, what is not being considered is the response of other regional players into the PRC/PLA/PLAN attack on Taiwan. I think that aspect is crucial to any discussion of this topic.
I do not see this as being a totally ‘Taiwan - PRC’ episode. I look for involvement, on varying degrees of scale by other regional and possibly a few non-regional actors in a situation such as the ‘conquest of Taiwan.’[/quote]
Well, it’s possible… wouldn’t be a surprise for an exile government to be established in Japan or the United States, for example.

But I think this is a secondary effect. Exile governments only become relevant if the primary effort fails. Iraq wouldn’t be this chaotic, and agents of Iran wouldn’t have growing political power, if the United States had gotten it right the first time around.