Forget the Afghanistan pull out

Politics International Politics
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Well, not necessarily. Maybe, just maybe, this huge find by the Americans is nothing more than a big fat lure to draw in the Chinese. It’s their backyard, after all, and they’re recently taken over a massive copper mining operation. Why not let them do some of the dirty work?

[quote=“Toronto Star”]The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

The previously unknown deposits – including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium – are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centres in the world, the U.S. officials believe.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys.[/quote]

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[quote=“Jaboney”]Well, not necessarily. Maybe, just maybe, this huge find by the Americans is nothing more than a big fat lure to draw in the Chinese. It’s their backyard, after all, and they’re recently taken over a massive copper mining operation. Why not let them do some of the dirty work?
[/quote]

And the Russians. And the Pakistanis. And the Indians. And the Saudi Arabians and anyone else I forgot who normally meddles in Afghani affairs. If you thought it was bloody when warlords were fighting over desolate plains interspersed with poppy fields, imagine the bloodshed over a trillion dollars of precious metals.

3

It may be better if left unfound.

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I read that news last night and was struck by the extreme giddiness of the reporting and of everyone quoted in the article. Over and over, everyone saying how it’s remarkable, stunning, overwhelming, could make Afghanistan one of the world’s leading producers of X, Y and Z, could transform the country, etc. If true, it sounds like a remarkable discovery.

But the extraction will be a monumental task, since the country has no history of heavy mining operations, no history of heavy industry, no history of environmental and safety laws and practices, etc. So, it will be many years till those deposits are tapped and it will likely be an environmental disaster when that time comes (not that any heavy mining operation is NOT an environmental disaster).

And the fighting over the resources. Woooeeeee. As noted above, the pakistanis, the chinese, the taliban, the americans, everyone will want a prime share and it won’t be settled peacefully, rationally at a negotiating table. And if the present Afghan administration is corrupt now, wait till they’ve got this loot to steal from their people.

Tommy’s right it might almost be better if it had never been discovered (like the guy who wins a superlottery and it brings ruin to him and his family) though perhaps, given that the Afghan’s are among the poorest people on earth, it might be nice to dream that some of the trillions of dollars will trickle back to them for new schools, hospitals, roads, houses, food, etc. Hard to imagine it happening in a broad, fair, equitable way though. Or perhaps at all.

Incidentally, Jaboney, it’s not quite fair to say the Americans discovered these deposits. I believe the russians started to discover them decades ago, but their maps and findings were stowed away for decades after the taliban took over, and the Americans only expanded on the investigation the russians were conducting.

In any event, I believe your title is exactly correct. This changes everything. Funny how many said it was understandable the US was screwing around in Iraq – because of the oil – but there was no reason for it to be fighting and dying in the vast wasteland of Afghanistan. Now, voila, more cause for Imperialism! :thumbsup: :slight_smile:

Of course it’s also possible it’s all BS, greatly exaggerated to provide further excuse to stay the course over there. :wink:

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[quote=“Mother Theresa”]
And the fighting over the resources. Woooeeeee. As noted above, the pakistanis, the chinese, the taliban, the americans, everyone will want a prime share and it won’t be settled peacefully, rationally at a negotiating table. And if the present Afghan administration is corrupt now, wait till they’ve got this loot to steal from their people.

Tommy’s right it might almost be better if it had never been discovered (like the guy who wins a superlottery and it brings ruin to him and his family) though perhaps, given that the Afghan’s are among the poorest people on earth, it might be nice to dream that some of the trillions of dollars will trickle back to them for new schools, hospitals, roads, houses, food, etc. Hard to imagine it happening in a broad, fair, equitable way though. Or perhaps at all. [/quote]

It’s a prime case for the Resource Curse. The corruption will get worse (if that’s possible) and whatever region of Afghanistan that has the resources will turn into a Central Asian version of the Niger Delta with all the tribal bands fighting over control of the wealth.

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Original title of article is:

Massive mineral discovery in Afghanistan could alter the war
by James Risen, The New York Times

[quote]The Pentagon task force has already started trying to help the Afghans set up a system to deal with mineral development. International accounting firms that have expertise in mining contracts have been hired to consult with the Afghan Ministry of Mines, and technical data are being prepared to turn over to multinational mining companies and other potential foreign investors.

The Pentagon is helping Afghan officials arrange to start seeking bids on mineral rights by next fall, officials said.[/quote]

Sounds like a good program to help the Afghani people get off the opium teat. Develop their natural resources and build their country.

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Wired has a good article on it today.

wired.com/dangerroom/2010/06 … otherlode/

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Of course they are…I didn’t know it took Dick Cheney that long to put a plan together though.

It usually goes something like:

We’ll lend you poor people some money to get on your feet and feed your families, start a small business etc. Then you’ll pay us back at five percent with money that only we issue, meaning you’ll have to endlessly borrow more from us in order to finance your credit. We’ll cut you some slack though and for only 99% of your mineral rights we will consider that as partial payment. We will cancel any remaining debts once your resources have all been consumed by us, at which point we’ll send Bono and some groupies to have a benefit concert, the public will want us to help by dropping your responsibility to repay and in the process we’ll end up with a few hundred million letters of thanks for all our hard work. Job well done! NEXT?!!

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This might work if it weren’t for the fact that Afghanis are not very good at sharing or cooperating, even with each other. When they aren’t being attacked by a foreign power, they devote themselves studiously to slaughtering and oppressing each other. In any case, growing opium is a lot easier and cheaper than mining, and since they don’t have any heavy industry to speak of I am certain that they would much rather pass over the opportunity to develop this vast resource, out of preference for what comes easier, cheaper, and more naturally, namely exporting opium and fighting amongst themselves.

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Of course they are…I didn’t know it took Dick Cheney that long to put a plan together though.[/quote]
Sula -
He watches you when you are sleeping…

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Forti -
I agree with most of what you say. Troublesome people those Afghans. Don’t play well together. Never have. Too tribal and all that.

Even when they were “united” against the Soviets they would slit each others throats in the down-time just to keep in practice.

But I do think the natural resource developments will be of some ‘big picture’ benefit to the country.

Always the optimist I am.

11

Anybody who knows even the basics of mineral exploration should be viewing this ‘mineral find’ as a complete joke. A trillion dollars eh? Where are the drill cores? It takes alot of drilling to define a mineral resource in order to assess the extent of the mineralization let alone determine it’s value both in the ground and wether it’s profitable to mine. In this case it is even more doubtfull because they are talking about multiple deposits of numerous metals. This is just bogus information released to an unquestioning media to feed to the masses to justify a prolonged stay in the country.

Even if (and this is a very big if) the mineral resources are as advertised how the heck do they expect to mine them? You get mining in Mexico disrupted by NGOs armed with placards and picket signs and they believe that Taliban with AK-47s will be no problem. Whoever it is in the Pentagon releasing this info has a heck of career waiting for him as a promoter on the Vancouver Exchange.

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For an excellent example of what happens when third world countries with a Neolithic approach to social organization find huge deposits of natural resources, look no further than happy Sudan.

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Forget the Afghanistan Pull Out?

Jeez, it took me six months to perfect that, and now I have to forget it?
Yeesh.
Guess I’ll just have to stick to the Venus Butterfly…
:unamused:

14

Oil in the Niger Delta. Oil Cabinda province in Angola. Coltan in the DRC. Oil and gas for East Timor.

I have serious doubts that the tribal leaders in Afghanistan will be able to stop killing each other long enough to extract the resources, let alone get it to market (as the Wired article mentioned). They would have to truck everything through Pakistan or Iran to get it to a port and onto the market with a heavily armed convoy. Even if they did get the materials out of the ground, it’s unlikely the proceeds will help the populace. It will get used to pay for larger militias, more patronage and larger fiefdoms.

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Yes, examples abound.

Quite. Tribalism strikes again. I have little patience for the idea that everything the West does is necessarily the best way of doing things, but I have to say that comparing tribalism and national identity, national identity does seem to have distinct advantages. It’s not really a ‘resource curse’, it’s a ‘stupid way of thinking curse’.

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Th eowrd we are looking for here is collusion. NYT and the Obama admin have had an extremely cozy relationship so that’s why the NYT put old info known since at least 2007 on the front page with a suitably large number.

The problem is that Afghanistan has no port, no railroads and few roads. Even if you could get to the places how would you get it out?

This is little more than the NYT giving cover to the Obama Admin to pushback the withdrawal that is running into so much trouble with the Karzai cartel. Because they aren’t stupid, Karzai and his capos know that when the US pulls out that they are set to be lynched or beheaded. This along with the fecklessness of most of our NATO allies means we have lost Afghanistan. FFS they kicked Michael Yon out.

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Because some people choose to demean without even bothering to debate a point lets give a little refresher

The politico article detailing NYT’s close relationship to the Obama Admin to the detriment of other newsreporters and media: dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? … 8f74c77116

Then we had the initial story of how Rahm Emmanual would get on the phone with other democrat operatives and media barons to kill and push news that was about a year and a half ago.

Then we have the large number of reporters working for the Obama Admin, married to democrats, or are hardcore democrat partisans.

18

How does Fox’s reporting on the story tie in to your theory?

foxnews.com/world/2010/06/14 … ghanistan/

EDIT: Oh for god’s sake Mods, that was totally uncalled for. You deleted my post because I laughed at Okami’s insane conspiracy theory. Lay off the censorship. We’re all big boys and girls and can handle a discussion without your undue interference. Thanks.

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[quote=“Mother Theresa”]

EDIT: Oh for god’s sake Mods, that was totally uncalled for. You deleted my post because I laughed at Okami’s insane conspiracy theory. Lay off the censorship. We’re all big boys and girls and can handle a discussion without your undue interference. Thanks.[/quote]I didn’t see the post in question, but the sheer volume of housekeeping necessary proves that whether or not we are all grown ups, that does not characterize the posting.

Too bad the rail line to China’s factories would be so long and high.

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[quote=“Mother Theresa”]How does Fox’s reporting on the story tie in to your theory?

foxnews.com/world/2010/06/14 … ghanistan/

EDIT: Oh for god’s sake Mods, that was totally uncalled for. You deleted my post because I laughed at Okami’s insane conspiracy theory. Lay off the censorship. We’re all big boys and girls and can handle a discussion without your undue interference. Thanks.[/quote]This is not the first time you have trolled my posts and made rude references with pictures without even bothering to address the facts that this information has been known for over 3 years in publically available documents. Even worse is the fact that the reason it’s not exploited is because you can’t exploit it easily as none of the infrastructure is there to do anything. Resource extraction in 3rd world countries is a huge gamble just from a political POV without even bothering to address the business POV. Afghanistan is a country where moving something 100 miles is an ordeal so how are they going to be moving ore, chemicals or lithium?

The only thing saving Obama’s ass in Afghanistan is a complacent MSM. If he was Bush the media would be making every screwup a 24-48 hour montage of how they are screwing it up. The US Army is adopting the failed WW2 German policy of supplying their bases using airplanes.