If they still want that pipeline, and Russia wins this, there are still options.
(1) Route it through Armenia. That either means arranging peace and open borders between Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, or allowing a second Armenian genocide.
(2) Route it from Turkey to Iran. Disadvantage: would not allow for independent connections with Central Asian states.
[color=darkblue]“We got guns, they got guns, all God’s chillun got guns! I’m gonna walk all over the battlefield, 'cause all God’s chillun got guns!”[/color]
Duck Soup
For some reason, that song has been going through my mind since this thing started.
youtube.com/watch?v=QAiQuj7tEGA
Things are far worse than we thought with those Russian aggressors- thank God John McCain is up on their fiendish plans!
valleywag.com/5034988/
Great Moments In Journalism: Google News informs us that the Russians are invading the South
(Google has put up the proper map now)
"Bring the good ol’ Bugle boys!
We’ll sing another song,
Sing it with a spirit that will start the world along,
Sing it like we used to sing it fifty thousand strong,
While we were marching through Georgia
Hurrah! Hurrah! We bring the Jubilee.
Hurrah! Hurrah! The flag that makes you free,
So we sang the chorus from Atlanta to the sea,
While we were marching through Georgia.
There was, in fact, an alternate-history novel (the first in Stirling’s “Draka” series) called “Marching Through Georgia.” In it, South Africa becomes an expansionist-minded superpower with a chip on its shoulder and ultimately invades Yurtzia, not Jawja.
[quote=“MikeN”]Things are far worse than we thought with those Russian aggressors- thank God John McCain is up on their fiendish plans!
valleywag.com/5034988/
Great Moments In Journalism: Google News informs us that the Russians are invading the South [/quote]
Eh? This is pretty good actually. According to one Russian…
[quote]1. South Ossetia has been de facto independent for 16 years. In that time it has built up all necessary government structures WHILE resisting Georgia.
South Ossetia has always been separate from Georgia, and a unit with North Ossetia. Ossetian people are NOT Georgian or Russian, ethnically.
Georgians turned on the Russian peacekeepers (who were there WITH Georgian consent), killed 10, wounded 150, and killed 2,000 Ossetians, many of them with Russian citizenship, displaced 34,000 and demolished half the country with shellings from rocket artillery. The, god forbid, Russia intervened to stop genocide of a de-facto separate country from Georgia. [/quote]
Russians = good
Georgia = bad
But…Georgia should learn to let Ossetia go. -_-; Anyways, I hope peace comes in somewhere between both countries and not play tug-a-war on Ossetia. There’s a word called “share” if it’s about oil.
Finally. As much as anyone wishes to deal this brief battle diplomatically, Georgia was the first to strike. Georgia should’ve known the consequences of starting the whole thing. Both Georgia and Russia ended up getting a lot of people hurt. --_–
[quote]
Georgia withdraws troops from South Ossetia capital
TBILISI, Georgia (CNN) – The Georgian military has pulled its troops from the capital of separatist province South Ossetia as thousands of Russian troops moved into the area, military officials confirmed Sunday.
Georgian troops have withdrawn from Tskhinvali back to the positions they held before Thursday when they launched an operation into the region.
The Georgian national council chief said the withdrawal was a show of goodwill, aimed at encouraging Russia to accept a cease-fire.
The official said about 200 Georgian soldiers and 37 Georgian civilians have died so far in Russia attacks.
The withdrawal comes after Russian forces launched an airstrike against a military airfield near the Tbilisi International Airport earlier in the day, Georgian officials told CNN.
The attack near the Georgian capital city came after a day of intense fighting in the former Soviet republic, with dozens of Russian warplanes bombing civilian and military targets in Georgia on Saturday.
Alexander Lomaia, secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council, said dozens of Georgian troops had lost their lives.
The situation in South Ossetia escalated rapidly from Thursday, when Georgia said it launched an operation into the region after its unilateral cease-fire was met with artillery fire from separatists that killed 10 people, including peacekeepers and civilians. It accused Russia of backing the separatists.
Russian tanks began rolling into Georgia on Thursday night.
President George Bush, speaking from Beijing where he is attending the Olympic Games, called for an immediate halt to the violence, a stand-down by all troops and an end to the Russian bombings. He urged the sides to return to “the status quo of August the 6th.”
A White House spokesman said Bush spoke to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Russian President Medvedev on Saturday.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who spoke to Putin at the Olympic opening ceremonies, also called for both sides to stand down and for “the full respect of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
The United States, the European Union, and NATO are working toward a cease-fire, and the U.N. Security Council met behind closed doors to discuss the issue Saturday.
Georgia, a pro-Western ally of the United States, is intent on asserting its authority over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Both have strong Russian-backed separatist movements.
Inside South Ossetia, civilians have been without water, electricity and basic services for more than a day, said Maia Kardava, a Red Cross spokeswoman in Tbilisi. She said the Red Cross was unable to reach colleagues based in Tskhinvali because their phones had lost power and they were huddled in bomb shelters. [/quote]
Yeah, I’ve read a lot about the Draka on alt-history sites (one of my favorite hobbies), but unfortunately never actually read any of the books.
IIRC, the Draka were fighting the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, and were puzzled by the Germans wasteful extermination of inferior races, when they should have been productively enslaving them.
Bit of important background.
[quote=“Post Global”]This conflict has its roots in three factors: First is the desire of the Southern Ossetes, who up until 1990 formed an autonomous region of the Georgian Soviet republic, to unite in one state with their co-ethnics in North Ossetia, an autonomous republic of the Russian Soviet republic (now the Russian Federation.)
This desire was further increased by Ossete fear of violent Georgian nationalism and hatred of ethnic minorities under then Georgian leader Zviad Gamsakhurdia, a tradition that the Ossetes see as having been revived under the present Georgian President, Mikhel Saakashvili. Spurred by this nationalism, the Georgians in December 1990 sent troops into South Ossetia after the region declared its own sovereignty - like the Russians in Chechnya or the Moldovans in Transdniestria, but unlike the peaceful Russian response to Tatarstan’s declaration of sovereignty, or the Ukrainian response to Crimean independence moves. This Georgian move was defeated by Soviet Interior Ministry troops, but began the war which has rumbled on intermittently ever since. It was followed by the Georgian government declaring the abolition of the South Ossete autonomous region and its incorporation into Georgia proper.[/quote]
Had…I have just been Facebook-chatting with my friend in Baghdad and she says the Georgians all went home yesterday.
Had…I have just been Facebook-chatting with my friend in Baghdad and she says the Georgians all went home yesterday.[/quote]In a week, they may wish they were back in Baghdad.
[quote=“NYT”] Asked where the border with South Ossetia was, [Gato Tkviavi] pointed at his feet. “The border is where the Russians say it is,” he said. “It could be here, or it could be Gori.”
The grimmest among the Georgians were the soldiers, haggard, unshaven and swinging their Kalashnikovs. A group of them had piled onto a flatbed truck, crowding on in such numbers that some were sitting on the roof, their feet dangling over the windshield.
One, who gave his name as Major Georgi, spoke with anger.
“Write exactly what I say,” he said. “Over the past few years, I lived in a democratic society. I was happy. And now America and the European Union are spitting on us.”[/quote]Pretty much right on both counts.
Rule #1: don’t start what you can’t finish.
Rule #2: avoid making things worse.
Having broken both those rules, Georgia’s right screwed.
[quote=“NYT”]Russia expanded its attacks on Georgia on Sunday, moving tanks and troops through the separatist enclave of South Ossetia and advancing toward the city of Gori in central Georgia, in its first direct assault on a Georgian city with ground forces during three days of heavy fighting, Georgian officials said.
The maneuver — along with bombing of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi — seemed to suggest that Russia’s aims in the conflict had gone beyond securing the pro-Russian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to weakening the armed forces of Georgia, a former Soviet republic and an ally of the United States whose Western leanings have long irritated the Kremlin.
Russia’s moves, which came after Georgia offered a cease-fire and said it had pulled its troops out of South Ossetia, caused widespread international alarm and anger and set the stage for an intense diplomatic confrontation with the United States.
Two senior Western officials said that it was unclear whether Russia intended a full invasion of Georgia, but that its aims could go as far as destroying its armed forces or overthrowing Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili.
“They seem to have gone beyond the logical stopping point,” one senior Western diplomat said, speaking anonymously under normal diplomatic protocol. [/quote]“An intense diplomatic confrontation”? Meaning what, the Russian Tea Room’s going to be renamed the “Coke Classic Room”? I’m thinking that’ll help not at all.
[quote]The Bush administration said it would seek a resolution from the United Nations Security Council condemning Russian military actions in Georgia. [/quote]Yes, very nice. And we know how much stock the Bush administration puts in the UN. Back to the ‘UN Sacred Drama’ position: the UN serves a very important function in that it can be publicly seen to fail. Can’t do anything useful, but can’t be seen sitting on your hands? Toss the problem into the UN’s lap. Ask why the UN (and what army?) isn’t taking action. Well, it keeps things from getting worse.
[quote]In a heated exchange with his Russian counterpart at the United Nations, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad of the United States accused the Kremlin of seeking to oust Mr. Saakashvili.
He charged that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had said as much Sunday morning in a telephone conversation with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, telling her “that the democratically elected president of Georgia ‘must go,’ ” Mr. Khalilzad said. Mr. Khalilzad said the comment was “completely unacceptable.”
[…]
The official added: “This is not about military objectives. This is about a political objective: removing a thorn in their side.” (Heard this somewhere before.)
[…]
Meanwhile, Georgian and Western diplomatic officials said Georgia had offered a cease-fire proposal to Russia, though Russian officials did not acknowledge receiving such an offer.[/quote]On to Baghdad! Or Tbilisi! Whatever, just get those tanks moving.
What wretched stupidity. Georgia, I mean. In this case, rule #2 rules out direct US or E.U. action. Georgia should have realized that.
But the neo-con affirmation that the US was uniquely able to act decisively in military affairs, and therefore could afford to scrap established and developing international norms did its part in setting the stage for this.
Thomas Barnett does the sums nicely.
[quote=“Thomas Barnett”]
Being in the Core doesn’t mean never going to war, especially against Gap nations. Indeed, my whole point in making the original delineation was to point out that while intra-Core war becomes an increasingly distant possibility, wars inside the Gap by Core nations will be anything but. Just look at our record since the end of the Cold War.
The notion of the Core doesn’t presuppose that only America will have permission to do this sort of thing unilaterally. In fact, in both my books, I cited the danger of other Core powers starting to replicate our example if we weren’t careful about embedding our own interventions within an acceptable A-to-Z rule set that the Core as a whole could sign up for, meaning we’d eventually see other Core great powers launching their own efforts inside the Gap–according to their own rules and agendas. To some extent, Russia’s kinetic version is as challenging as China’s non-kinetic version–say–in Africa.
But make no mistake: the longer the U.S. gives off the vibe that it’s a “dangerous chaotic world” where Core great powers do what they must to protect their interests, the more we will see this sort of behavior. If I’m Russia, and I’ve been watching imperious Washington this past two decades, I feel wholly within my rights in my own neighborhood, because those Americans certainly show themselves to take advantage or do what they feel they must in places all over the world but especially in their own backyard.
Again, this is where the strategic vision “thing” or the lack thereof really hurts. We go off on a strategic bender after 9/11 and start remaking the Middle East as we see fit and we can’t expect every other Core great power to simply stand by and see what happens. We set the example, we model the behavior, and we eschew the larger schemes of cooperation as “naive” or “too compromising” or “too distasteful” because “those regimes” aren’t democracies like we are, and we’re going to find ourselves battling alternative great-power rule sets, which–in effect–Russia is proposing right now regarding the Caucasus.
[/quote]
Whilst accepting that Georgia’s President has really f… up big time in thinking that 1. He could take on Russia and 2. The West would help him do it, it seems to me that if Putin stomps his way through Georgia and shows those insane Russian Nationalists back home how wonderful and powerful he is, and how weak and helpless the West is, it will spur them on even more. Ukraine will be next, and then Russia will control all the gas and oil in the region, whist slowly rebuilding their 80s empire. The US and Europe either should have never even considered letting Georgia join NATO or should have signed them up ages ago. Why tell a country that they can join, thus enjoy the protection of NATO, but then not do it? Red rag to the Russian bull and also makes the Georgians think that the US and EU gives a sh…! Not a good state of affairs.
I think someone’s gotta stare at the Russian president in the face for hours and hours. -_- Georgia isn’t the Middle East. It’s a country full of civiized people but with a president who doesn’t know any better. The excuse of aiming for Georgian military bases and related places is clearly a copy-cat of the US’s actions.
Both Russia and Georgia are at fault. The international community should force the two presidents into a room and have them make a comprimise without any food (haaaa). At least, make the Georgian president understand that trying to take back a de facto independent country by force isn’t right. Make the Russian president understand that he should’ve held back when Georgia announced a cease-fire.
Because of the different view points, South Ossetia suffered as much as Georgia. Probably more since its people fled to both Georgia and North Ossetia.
I’ve heard this song somewhere before.
The beats there, the lyrics are much a like… regime change… president must go… rejection of cease-fire and outside mediation… (polite) international condemnation… what’s that song, “Great Power Smack Down”?
I vote for Canada to do the ‘smack-down’ on Russian President Medvedev on this episode.
Canada and a legion of blue helmeted UN Peace Keepers.
That’ll teach Russia about respecting national sovereignty.
Russia’s Medvedev: operation in S.Ossetia near conclusion
President of the breakaway South Ossetia region Eduard Kokoity. Photo: AFP
Pro-Moscow strongman heads South Ossetia
11 Aug
[i]"FROM his proud military past in the Red Army, Eduard Kokoity, the unrecognised president of South Ossetia, could hardly be a more different leader from his Georgian rival, Mikheil Saakashvili.
Mr Kokoity, holder of a Russian passport, is leader of the region’s separatists, who use roubles, hold Russian passports and dream of rejoining Russia. But he is hardly recognised as president outside his tiny enclave.
He rose to prominence after a short but bloody civil war with Georgia in 1991-92 in which hundreds died and thousands fled. In 2001 he won an election and was re-elected in 2006.
He has rejected an offer of autonomy made by Mr Saakashvili and made it clear that he wants first independence from Georgia and then unification with Russia."[/i]
There’s no peace to keep. You want peacemakers? I do. Thing is, nobody’s got them.
“Respecting national sovereignty”? You’re kidding, right? Or is this another one of those ‘do as we say not as we do’ things?
Some related articles:
Bush warns Russia to pull back in Georgia
Pres. Bushs’ comments and a lot of background info on the current situation.
Russians seize key city, open second Georgia front
Details of Russian expansion of the hostilities.
Georgia ‘overrun’ by Russian troops as full-scale ground invasion begins
Stories with lots of pictures.
President Bushs’ comments were strong, however at this point, there have been no suggestions of consequences, sanctions or economic reprisals against Russia for their actions.
Russian arguments:
[quote=“McClatchy”] Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin chafed at the criticism, likening Russia’s moves against Georgia to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
“Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages,” Putin said from Moscow. “And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed 10 Ossetian villages at once, who ran over elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilians alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection.”[/quote]
I hate that Putin’s been handed such an easy justification for this argument.
Gorby’s opening argument and proposed federalist solution are fair and interesting; his great power sphere of influence conclusion, though, leaves me twitchy.
[quote=“Mikhail Gorbachev”]The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia’s separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. This turned out to be a time bomb for Georgia’s territorial integrity. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force – both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar – it only made the situation worse. New wounds aggravated old injuries.
Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. For some time, relative calm was maintained in South Ossetia. The peacekeeping force composed of Russians, Georgians and Ossetians fulfilled its mission, and ordinary Ossetians and Georgians, who live close to each other, found at least some common ground.
Through all these years, Russia has continued to recognize Georgia’s territorial integrity. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. Indeed, in a civilized world, there is no other way.
The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.
What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against “small, defenseless Georgia” is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.
[…]
Over the past few days, some Western nations have taken positions, particularly in the U.N. Security Council, that have been far from balanced. As a result, the Security Council was not able to act effectively from the very start of this conflict. By declaring the Caucasus, a region that is thousands of miles from the American continent, a sphere of its “national interest,” the United States made a serious blunder. Of course, peace in the Caucasus is in everyone’s interest. But it is simply common sense to recognize that Russia is rooted there by common geography and centuries of history. Russia is not seeking territorial expansion, but it has legitimate interests in this region.
The international community’s long-term aim could be to create a sub-regional system of security and cooperation that would make any provocation, and the very possibility of crises such as this one, impossible. Building this type of system would be challenging and could only be accomplished with the cooperation of the region’s countries themselves. Nations outside the region could perhaps help, too – but only if they take a fair and objective stance. A lesson from recent events is that geopolitical games are dangerous anywhere, not just in the Caucasus. [/quote]
Georgian arguments.
[quote=“Mikheil Saakashvili”]
The Kremlin designed this war. Earlier this year, Russia tried to provoke Georgia by effectively annexing another of our separatist territories, Abkhazia. When we responded with restraint, Moscow brought the fight to South Ossetia.
Ostensibly, this war is about an unresolved separatist conflict. Yet in reality, it is a war about the independence and the future of Georgia. And above all, it is a war over the kind of Europe our children will live in. Let us be frank: This conflict is about the future of freedom in Europe.
No country of the former Soviet Union has made more progress toward consolidating democracy, eradicating corruption and building an independent foreign policy than Georgia. This is precisely what Russia seeks to crush.
This conflict is therefore about our common trans-Atlantic values of liberty and democracy. It is about the right of small nations to live freely and determine their own future. It is about the great power struggles for influence of the 20th century, versus the path of integration and unity defined by the European Union of the 21st. Georgia has made its choice.
[…]
We have worked hard to peacefully bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia back into the Georgian fold, on terms that would fully protect the rights and interests of the residents of these territories. For years, we have offered direct talks with the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, so that we could discuss our plan to grant them the broadest possible autonomy within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia.
But Russia, which effectively controls the separatists, responded to our efforts with a policy of outright annexation. While we appealed to residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with our vision of a common future, Moscow increasingly took control of the separatist regimes. The Kremlin even appointed Russian security officers to arm and administer the self-styled separatist governments.
[…]
Our offers of peace were rejected. Moscow sought war. In April, Russia began treating the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as Russian provinces. Again, our friends in the West asked us to show restraint, and we did. But under the guise of peacekeeping, Russia sent paratroopers and heavy artillery into Abkhazia. Repeated provocations were designed to bring Georgia to the brink of war.
When this failed, the Kremlin turned its attention to South Ossetia, ordering its proxies there to escalate attacks on Georgian positions. My government answered with a unilateral cease-fire; the separatists began attacking civilians and Russian tanks pierced the Georgian border. We had no choice but to protect our civilians and restore our constitutional order. Moscow then used this as pretext for a full-scale military invasion of Georgia.
[…]
If Georgia falls, this will also mean the fall of the West in the entire former Soviet Union and beyond. Leaders in neighboring states – whether in Ukraine, in other Caucasian states or in Central Asia – will have to consider whether the price of freedom and independence is indeed too high.[/quote]
With his record I doubt anyone gives much credence to anything he says.