Georgia and Russia going to war?

Politics International Politics
61

That’s decidedly thin. If, apart from that, you’ve got nothing, I remain skeptical.

We don’t know what the original Russian plans were, what Bush said, what the French president and foreign minister have been saying, nor how this is going to end.

Which is what one would expect in either case, right?

In other words, if the US did have anything to do with it, my guess is that the non-negotiable starting place for whatever discussion took place was: “Listen Russia, we know that the one outcome that you CANNOT accept, is the loss of face you would suffer if it looks like you stopped because we told you to. So if you do come around on this thing, you have our guarantee that we will not turn this from a PR victory to a PR humiliation for you by putting it out there that we stopped you.” [/quote]
Under normal circumstances, yes. Currently, no.

There’s no evidence that the US has any means of compelling the Russians to stop from marching into Tbilisi and roasting marshmallows in the presidential office.

Given a long string of moves, from the abrogation of the ABM treaty, to NATO expansion, to (most importantly) recognition of Kosovo’s independence, there’s no evidence that the Bush administration would offer such a face-saving measure, nor that the Russians would accept such assurances.

62

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Bush arguing with Putin in Beijing? I don’t think so. Putin flew out as soon as this all errupted.

HG[/quote]

theaustralian.news.com.au/be … 97,00.html

[quote]Mr Rudd revealed in an interview with Beijing Now in Beijing on Saturday that he was sitting just two rows behind Mr Bush when an “animated” discussion between he and Mr Putin broke out over Russia’s advance into South Ossetia, a breakaway region in neighbouring Georgia.

“The President and Mr Putin were in animated conversation two seats in front of us and I imagine they had a few things on their agenda,” Mr Rudd said.

Mr Rudd said that Mr Bush appeared to be making a strong point to the Russian Prime Minister, even as the world’s elite athletes filed into Beijing’s Bird’s Nest stadium.

Mr Rudd backed the US President’s position.

“Our position, like the Americans, is that it’s important for peace and stability to return to this part of Georgia,” he said.

"We recognise and continue to recognise Georgia’s soverignty over Ossetia and therefore it’s important that Russia cease its military involvement.

“This problem in Ossetia has been brewing for quite some time. Certainly the timing of the actions on the part of the Russians, that’s a question best put to them. What I know is the international community is speaking with one voice in support of the cessation of hostilities by the Russians.”[/quote]
People have criticized Rudd for saying this because it was undiplomatic, even by Australian standards, but not because it was untrue.

edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08 … .olympics/

[quote]While visiting Beijing, China, for the start of the Olympic Games, much of the president’s attention was focused in the intensifying conflict between Russia and Georgia.

Bush pressed Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, to accept a cease-fire when the two leaders were in Beijing, saying, “this violence is unacceptable.”

“I was very firm with Vladimir Putin – he and I have got a good relationship – just like I was firm with the Russian president,” Dmitry Medvedev, Bush told NBC on Sunday.[/quote]
Even if you dislike the Bush, he certainly managed to convince the Russians not to try to occupy Georgia completely. Which they were at least considering a couple of days ago. And he got his allies to do the same thing. Which was handy, because there was bugger all anyone could do to stop Russia if it decided to ignore the diplomatic pressure.

63

y’uz k’n’all get fukt.

:smiley:

64

[quote=“KingZog”]Even if you dislike the Bush, he certainly managed to convince the Russians not to try to occupy Georgia completely. Which they were at least considering a couple of days ago. And he got his allies to do the same thing. Which was handy, because there was bugger all anyone could do to stop Russia if it decided to ignore the diplomatic pressure.[/quote]Evidence?
If nothing from the Americans, how about Russian occupation plans?
I’m half joking. Circumstantial evidence is fine.

Just because I see someone speaking firmly to the sea doesn’t mean I’ll credit him with averting a possible flood the next day.

65

[quote=“Jaboney”]Evidence?
If nothing from the Americans, how about Russian occupation plans?
I’m half joking. Circumstantial evidence is fine.[/quote]
The original casus belli was that the Georgians attacked Russian troops in South Ossetia. But the Russians advanced deep into Georgia ‘cutting the country in half’ and opened a second front through Abkhazia. Putin compared Saakashvili to Saddam and Medvedev said he must step down. The Russians had bombed targets near Tblisi. The fact is that militarily, the Russians could easily have occupied Georgia with the forces they had, and the US suspected that was the plan.

OK, I don’t know for sure, but it looked for a while as if their war aims were wider than driving back the Georgian offensive into South Ossetia. Or that they may become wider, given that the Russians vastly outnumbered the Georgians.

66

Agreed, they could have gone all the way. And the Soviets wouldn’t have stopped halfway. But the Russians may be wiser, in part because of American experience in dealing with Saddam in Iraq, but more likely as a result of their own experience in Afghanistan and Chechnya.

If they stop short, maybe the president they’re pissed with manages to stay in office, albeit greatly diminished. The population will rally 'round him for a time, while it’s Us or Them, but once the Georgians turn back to internal affairs they’re likely to have some very hard questions to put to Saakashvilli.

Alternatively, the Russians could occupy the country and entirely blow their justification: protecting a Russian-allied minority that was having the shit kicked out of it by a hostile state government. They’d also be faced with the prospect of dealing with another Afghanistan- or Chechnya-style occupation. I think they’ve learned better.

Stop short, peel off the provinces with populations that have been banging on Russia’s door seeking entrance for close to 20 years, and go home smiling having fired a shot across the bows of all those former Soviet republics looking to the West for protection. That, or settle into another long, violent occupation. Or do nothing, and look like a broken reed after letting another Russian ally take a beating from a West-leaning state.

The logic for occupation, isn’t there; nor is the evidence. :idunno:

67

The Russians can’t be trusted … and the EU should be careful as not to become dependent on Russian gas and oil …

68

(1) The U.S. has a (small) military base in Georgia. For Russia to have conquered Georgia would have been an attack on the U.S. as well.

(2) The South Ossetians and Abkhazians seem to like the Russians. The Georgians don’t, so occupying them would be like adding another Chechnya. Does Russia really want that, or would they be happier with a modest, but clear victory that wins them much domestic approval?

(3) If Russia had invaded Georgia all the way, other countries would suspect them of planning to recreate the USSR (no matter what their real intentions). Of course they could have just hanged the president and then left, but that’s kind of overkill (so to speak). Putin made that remark about Saddam just to illustrate that Russia’s actions don’t look so excessive when compared to Bush’s.

69

Why would the concerned vested interests in the US even want to try to stop those “damn russkies”, in this instance?
One would think they would be more interested in observing performance. The post cold-war environment has entailed a long period of recovery for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
See how they stretch…
Rehab is over…
and they’ve got snazzy flags…
mil.ru/eng/1868/41323/index.shtml

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BREAKING NEWS — Russians have bombed and looted the city of Gori outside the breakaway province of South Ossetia on their way deeper into the country, witnesses said Wednesday.

Georgian Security Council Chief Alexander Lomaia said that the Russian military bombed Gori Wednesday morning and entered the city. The Russian military then let paramilitaries into Gori who started massive looting.

71

The Belgian news also reported Russian tanks moving in around Gori after they signed a ‘cease fire’ on Wednesday … Russians can’t be trusted … the government, one big mafia …

72

CNN is reporting that Russian tanks are closing in on Tbilisi. They’re interviewing Saakashvili in very biased way, as if he’s some kind of hero.

Or maybe he’s just a superb bullshit artist.

73

More fun. I wonder what the excuse will be this time.

Earlier, I was wondering what would happen with the border around South Ossetia… it’s an invitation to further trouble. If the Russians want to redraw the border east and west along the mountains, knocking out Gori makes sense. Of course, it’s also on the road to Tbilisi and the major pipeline.

[quote=“Thomas Barnett”]Great (George) Friedman quote on Russia

[quote="[url=http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-08-10-georgia_N.htm?csp=34]USA Today[/url]"]"A bloody fight, a broad impact: Moscow's response to Georgia suggests it has larger goals," by Jeffrey Stinson, USA Today, 11 August 2008, p. 1A.

[/quote]
Referencing our plan to put missile defense shield in eastern Europe despite Soviet disapproval:

Ouch!

But right to the heart of the matter.[/quote]

Yep. A missile shield that wouldn’t have done any good on 9/11, and won’t do any good against tanks.
What’s that joke, “Two Soviet tank commanders over tea in Paris: ‘So, who won the air war?’”

I should dig out that old Project for a New American Century position paper. The one that says a Pearl Habour-like incident would provide an excellent opportunity to unleash American power now unconstrained by a Soviet counterbalance. So many mistaken assumptions.

74

Fucking hell!

The tanks have turned back North, away from Tbilisi. They have destroyed a Georgian base at Gori though.

Russians say the tanks are evacuating an arms depot. They interviewed the tank drivers and they said the Georgians knew why they were there.

Which is odd, because at that point Saakashvili was doing his Imre Nagy act on CNN. And doing a damn good job of it, I must say.

75

Sounds like the Russians and Ossetians are having a great time. :frowning:

[quote=“AP: Russian Military Moving Deeper Into Georgia… Georgians: Russians Bombed, Looted City Of Gori”]Russian tanks rolled into the crossroads city of Gori on Wednesday then thrust deep into Georgian territory, violating the truce designed to end the six-day war that has uprooted 100,000 people and scarred the Georgian landscape.

Georgian officials said Gori was looted and bombed by the Russians. An AP reporter later saw dozens of tanks and military vehicles leaving the city, roaring south.

Troops waved at journalists and one soldier jokingly shouted to a photographer: “Come with us, beauty, we’re going to Tbilisi!”

To the west, Abkahzian separatist forces backed by Russian military might pushed out Georgian troops and even moved into Georgian territory, defiantly planting a flag.

“The border has been along this river for 1,000 years,” separatist official Ruslan Kishmaria told AP on Wednesday. He said Georgia would have to accept the new border and taunted the retreating Georgian forces, saying they had received “American training in running away.”[/quote]

76

CNN rocks at the moment. Some CNN guy is in Georgia with a Russian soldier who for some insane reason he won’t interview. The Russian soldier was trying to say something in Russian. CNN guy translated “he says Russians no want war”. They’ve cut to soundbites from Saakashvili, talking about them terrorising and looting. Georgians are preparing to hold off an invasion.

77

[quote=“Der Spiegel: Russian Army Clears Out Georgian Army Bases”]Liars don’t tend to be believed. That is why news agencies and foreign correspondents reacted calmly to the announcement from the Georgian National Security Council on Wednesday morning that 50 Russian tanks had just rolled into the Georgian town of Gori.

Unfortunately, Gerorgia’s security council has lost its credibility. Georgia has made official announcements before about attacks that didn’t happen – as have the Russians. Politicians all the way up to President Mikhail Saakashvili had been too quick to dramatically claim that a march on Tbilisi was imminent – until hardly anyone believed them any more.[/quote]Whoa. That’s some pretty blunt journalism. Someone’s determined not to be played for sympathy in this mess.

78

Is it me or is this “war” much more watchable than Iraq II was? Drunken soldiers, CNN and BBC guys stopping Georgian AND Russian troop carriers mere miles apart and interviewing them. Much better than the DRAMA of a CNN guy getting detained in Beijing.

GW gets up and talks some serious shit, and two seconds later the Russian Foreign whatever says to not look at their actual invasion, but look at where we are now at the ceasefire as a starting point.

I’ve missed the Russians. They’re fun to hate.

79

“This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed.”
– Condoleeza Rice,

80

Right, now they can only intervene in the politics of, uh, closer neighbors.