I doubt very much the US will get involved and that is WHY the German should worry. Think very carefully about Ukraine and Russia teaming up again. As long as Ukraine is not part of Russia that give the Baltics the breathing room to remain independent since militarily they are not defensible against an expansionist Russia at least not without the threat of nuclear war.
Think also about an exasperated America ready to get out of Europe and think very much again about a Russia suddenly interested in not just Ukraine, but Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc. as well. Think about a Ukrainian population that is mostly against Kuchma’s Russophile policies. Perhaps some major civil disturbances leading to even a civil war which naturally would draw Russian concern and intervention a la Chechnya, Abkhazia, etc. and where will all those refugees head? Say out of a population of 50 million, if say even 10 percent headed out where would they go? Russia? or Germany? I think the latter and what will you do with 5 million, maybe even 10 million refugees.
Will your French-German-Belgian-Luxembourger defense force be able to handle such a serious conflict? Look at Bosnia and later at Kosovo. Does this give you cause for optimism? Just curious. I think that while it is unlikely it is possible. Then maybe Germany too will have to wake from its vacation from history?
Indeed, the European nations should get their act together and instead of cutting down forces and relying on the US they should get their act together and become more independent, in a defensive way of course.
Though I doubt the US would actually want to pull out of Europe altogether even in that case, as it seems they want to shift their troops rather east than west.
Surprisingly the Russians see Germany still as a big threat, so we should treat them with caution.
Oh, and I love Tallinn in Estonia - leave it alone …
Music to my ears. Yes, I would like to see the Europeans develop an independent defense force while still cooperating extensively with the US in NATO. This we can agree upon, but I was completely bewildered when the Germans seemed to shunt off the US, their most important security partner, before this happened. Anyway, not to get on the old things again, but I am very pleased that US-German relations are moving back to some kind of normalcy.
Seriously, though, I think that the situation in the Ukraine right now is something I would be concentrating on very very much if I were Fischer. While I am glad the Germans are assisting so much in Afghanistan, this is an area where Berlin might want to contribute some substantial time and effort (and money) before it is too late.
[quote]The SPD, Chancellor Schoeder’s ruling party, is in … political trouble. The latest opinion poll by the German TV-channel ZDF currently shows the SPD at a new historic record-breaking low of 22% in the approval ratings… In the meantime, the conservative opposition CDU’s support edged up to a solid majority at 53%… Until now, Schroeder could always count on anti-American policies to give him a lift in the polls when he was in trouble at home… But apparently, most Germans are starting to see through Schroeder’s cynical brand of opportunistic politics.
We can say clearly: Anti-Americanism hasn’t helped the SPD’s ratings lately and now seems to be backfiring badly…
Thanks for that link but I thought that this aspect was even more worrisome…US Correspondents from German Newspapers Acknowledge Anti-American Bias
In a discussion session at the forum of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, America correspondents from German newspapers chatted with surprising candor about the mechanisms of anti-Americanism in their editing.
From: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Susanne Klingenstein: “Moments of Truth,” October 21, 2003, p. 21
"In the German press the picture of the United States has been narrowed to that of a caricature: They are a narrow-headed, aggressive giant, led by an incompetent, overly-religious president. Schadenfreude over the newest developments can be felt everywhere. What began as legitimate criticism of the Bush government has now established itself as an aggressive anti-Americanism, an anti-Americanism that the German correspondents in Washington find difficult to resist or counter: The themes on which they report are selected by their bosses back in Germany.
Five topics seem to be particularly popular: The stupid President, the American’s human-rights violations, the dysfunctional American democracy, the crass materialism of the Americans and the failure of the American media, a media often described in Germany with the word “Gleichschaltung” meaning the entire US media takes one uniform line (i.e. one uniform pro-Bush, pro-war line,) and is incapable of independent thought or action. And so, a homogenous picture of America has come into being which allows for no alternative shades or variations and which completely fails to convey the great diversity and variety of the United States.
Gosh. Now we know where Rascal and Mesheel have been getting their information: German newspapers?
[quote=“Tigerman”][quote]Quote:
The SPD, Chancellor Schoeder’s ruling party, is in … political trouble. The latest opinion poll by the German TV-channel ZDF currently shows the SPD at a new historic record-breaking low of 22% in the approval ratings… In the meantime, the conservative opposition CDU’s support edged up to a solid majority at 53%… Until now, Schroeder could always count on anti-American policies to give him a lift in the polls when he was in trouble at home… But apparently, most Germans are starting to see through Schroeder’s cynical brand of opportunistic politics.
We can say clearly: Anti-Americanism hasn’t helped the SPD’s ratings lately and now seems to be backfiring badly…
medienkritik.typepad.com/blog/20 … e_fal.html [/quote][/quote]
IMHO a wrong conclusion since I don’t see any evidence of backfiring, fred’s following post would rather proof that the German voters still have the same view.
No doubt Schroeders stance before the election benefitted him, but it shows that foreign policy and in particular America do not have that much weight for the Germans, instead they are more concerned about internal issues - and there we have lot’s of problems.
Neither the CDU nor any other party is an alternative, politicians are all alike - the tell you what you want to hear and make any promise to get elected. After that … well, you know. And I am afraid that applies to everywhere in the world.
Very funny fred, but you didn’t explain if or what’s wrong about the last paragraph.
Sorry do not understand the question. Do you mean why doesn’t anti-Americanism work any more in Germany?
I would say for two reasons:
First and foremost the war in Iraq is over and I think that most Germans value stability as much as the next group of citizens. Hence, many would genuinely like to help stabilize Iraq and make it more prosperous. I also think that it is patently obvious that the US is not on some crazy mission to go around willy nilly starting wars of aggression for frivolous reasons, and it is more than obvious that even if it wanted to, it simply does not have the resources to do so. The very fact that it does not have the resources to deal with Iran and North Korea are making Germans a bit concerned about just what kind of world might be on the horizon if the US is not around. Many are starting to realize the wisdom of the old adage, be careful what you wish for, you may get it. They have gotten it. Schadenfreude with a US too distracted by Iraq to worry about other areas with the same kind of attention that they would like it to.
Second, I think that the German people are finally getting a chance to size up Schroeder and Fischer and want someone who can deliver tangible benefits or effect meaningful reform. Many no longer believe that Schroeder can do that and his anti-American stances are so out of tune with what people are now concerned about. Would you vote for Schroeder if an election were held this week? If not, for whom?
“Anti-Americanism” still works fine, didn’t you prove that earlier by some book sales?
And Michael Moore is German’s favorite, too, nowadays. :?
But who can - instead of making promises only? (Rhetoric question from my point of view)
My point exactly, what you call being “anti-American” was good to win an election but it never was (and I guess never was supposed to be) a long-term thing. Of course I do object to calling it “anti-American” without the quotation marks, a label to quickly given to anyone who happens to disagree or shows a strong opinion. But let’s not go there again.
Can’t really speak for all Germans but AFAIK most are still opposed to the war, yet our domestic problems get more attention now (cutting of pension benefits etc.).
But in any case, that doesn’t make Schroeder wrong in his stance regarding the war nor does it mean that Germans suddenly disagree with him on that issue, it just shows that there are other (more important) issues to be considered, in particular when you want to be re-elected.
If you allow the comparision I think Bush will face a similar dilemma, his stance on the war alone will not make him win the next election either. IMHO.
Germany like America is a very multifaceted nation. Therefore Bush barely squeaked in on 500 votes and Schroeder was not exactly voted in by a strong majority either (sort of like Hitler… ) but… never mind about that…
I know of many Germans in the older generation who are deeply concerned about the not getting involved in Iraq. First, they do not see what the difference is between Afghanistan and Iraq. Why the first one so actively and the second so actively opposed? Wherein lies the difference? I would say 30 percent of Germans support the US effort in Iraq. They are mostly older and more committed to the Atlanticist position. They understand all too clearly the security implications of going with France as opposed to sticking with America. Many of these support Stoiber.
The younger generation and not to be too flippant is trendy and faddish and interested in wearing their Che Guevera t-shirts to fight oppression against convenient targets such as the United States while avoiding the hard sacrifices of fighting those like Saddam Hussein (that makes up a good 25 percent). We have them in the United States as well. Give them a new target (Starbuck’s?) and they go running down the street to yell and scream about fair trade coffee. They flit from issue to issue and are only relevant in how many police have to be deployed and how much damage they cause innocent store owners.
Then there is the remaining 45 percent who are genuinely concerned (some genuinely understand the issue, many are emotionalist who “feel” that it is wrong and hey, that’s about the same percentage as we have in America.) So, not to be dismissive but these people are going to be around and hard to convince otherwise (i.e. that their opposition might have been misplaced and that Bush is not a greater evil than Saddam). Part of this group as in the US is made up of “intellectuals” and journalists who for some reason invariably follow the pacifist line at all costs. We saw the same groups screaming about the Pershing missile deployment in Germany in the 1980s despite the fact that the Soviets admitted this raised the stakes too high for them and ended their buildup, but today this inconvenient information has been forgotten.
So what is the point of all this. I believe that I have forgotten. I guess my point is that the US has the exact same groups as Germany and that Schroeder is more like Clinton than Bush. I believe that Bush has principles and follows them despite the fact that they may make him unpopular and these kinds of leaders are important during times of crises while leaders like Schroder and Clinton are fine when times are good but because they do not stand for anything but shift with the mob, they make ineffective leaders when it comes time to push through reform or face down danger. Bush will therefore in my opinion get re-elected. Schroeder won’t.
Christ what a ramble. Sorry if this is confusing. I’m tired today.
With the change in administration in September 1998, the generation of 1968 arrived at central positions in the main institutions of the Federal Republic of Germany. The victory of the SPD and the Greens was also
the first time two political parties
Nonetheless, the German arguments were presented in an undiplomatic style. Because it painted the Bush administration as warmongers, Germany came out completely isolated and weakened. The Schröder administration snubbed the most important friend and partner in an unprecedented way, thus risking the central interest of German foreign policy
Yeah - surely German foreign policy has to be framed by something more than “not being American foreign policy.”
Maybe there is a greater sense of idealism among the public? Perhaps the peace movement has greater support / more political power? Has the “umbrella” of NATO contributed to a more inward-looking policy?
I dunno… I can see some logic in all such positions. There are probably much better questions than these to ask… but it does seem to me to be absurd to answer Freddie with a bit of knee-jerk US-bashing.
Or maybe that is the truth of the matter?
Maybe German foreign policy - or how Germans see themselves is indeed defined by their reaction to the US? How they are different to the US? Its a bit passive, though. As the US changes, so might Germans’ perceptions of who they are change, because their reference point - that which they are not, has changed.
This must be awfully confusing… and must make one feel constantly at the whim of others…
Still, it explains a lot. Say it ain’t so, Rascal…
Are you sleeping? My point is and always has been, the German administration of Schroeder and Fischer have to be some of the most incompetent leaders that Germany has had since well since you know… I have made this repeatedly and if you would READ my posts you would see that I am hardly anti-German. In fact, I am the one that constantly points out how important the German-American relationship is and how helpful Germany has been behind the scenes.
These two buffoons (Schroeder and Fischer) perform the equivalent of committing security policy suicide by opposing America on an issue of secondary or even tertiary importance to the Germans to side with France on an issue that does absolutely nothing to contribute to German security or protect German interests. For what? Moralizing? Posturing? Anti-militarism? Get over the 60s Gerhard, ditch little Joschk-ito and find some experts in the administration to handle foreign policy, not some punk with an attitude hearkening back to the hippy era. Is that now clear enough for you?
I still challenge you on German foreign policy. I think that you know next to nothing about how your country’s foreign policy has and is being shaped and what the underlying assumptions are regarding security policy otherwise you too would be shocked to your core about recent German actions. Yet, you are too busy reading Noam Chomsky to find issue with American foreign policy to even bother to keep up or study your own? How ludicrous is that dear Rascal? how ludicrous is that?
And despite these shameless incompetent, laughably juvenile, shenanigans, Americans have to listen to lectures about cowboy diplomacy ala Bush?!
Thought you might have something interesting to say. You got all polly-anna-ish and paranoid about believing we demand you speak up for the German Government. I say: “Calm down - all we would like to hear is an opinion that is not based simply on Germany being ‘not America.’” You will not (and I assume until shown otherwise) cannot supply one.
As for you tortured, illogical postings, I thought of you when I read this in the Economist:
“[I]ncoherence is one of the luxuries of impotence.”
How many people here seriously believe that Germany and France can “unify” to some extent and promote their policies jointly, including for a joint defense force?
You may have alluded to this before, but… I was dismayed at the willingness of some of the more powerful countries (France especially I seem to remember, but may be wrong) to threaten to obstruct EU membership for peripheral countries due totheir support of the US foreign policy.
I think the main problem is that to whatever extent France and germany believe they have common policy goals, these may be being diluted by new accessions to Europe.
Now, i am all for broadening the EU before deepening the EU (and would probably “deepen” it in a fairly shallow way, anyhow ( ))
Thus, France and german joint interests may have to become less dogmatic, more shallow, and less parochial (within the context of europe). Of course, the other option would be to rush through a half-arsed constitution in the short-term… but I can’t see them being that short-sighted…
Wherein do France and Germany have common interests and how much can Germany give up without transfering sovereignty to France? I mean this would not be taking place unless Germany was the one doing the disproportionate amount of “giving.” Anyone who believes otherwise does not know France or is free to prove to the contrary.
Does this assymetry have to do with France’s having a seat on the UN, while Germany is more hamstrung in foreign policy? Could france’s bitter opposition to the US’s go-it-alone stance on Iraq have something to do with the fact that an “irrelevant UN” weakens France’s power in the Franco-German alliance? Does this explain germany’s softer stance towards the US?
WASHINGTON (CNN) – U.S. relations with Germany were badly strained over the war in Iraq, and there’s still considerable disagreement in the aftermath. But the German Foreign Minister is praising the U.S. plan for stepping up the transition to Iraqi self-rule. CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer spoke with Germany’s Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer in Washington about moves to rebuild the relationship.
Will there be a meeting of minds regarding Iraq and will the US-German relationship be repaired. Is this France’s attempt to split Berlin and Washington or truly a mutually agreed upon position by France and Germany? Now that Germany has seen the consequences, will it find a face saving measure for both itself and Washington to escape the French manipulations?
) but… never mind about that… 