It can always fall
More. But I’m in for the inevitable outcome. It’s fairly important.
So NASDAQ getting a bit smashed up.
Google drops bigly on crazy capex spend. 200 billion this year and next year…hmmmm. Does seem excessive.
Then the stocks that should benefit from the massive capex spend still drop lol.
Seems like the hyperscalers still want to be top dogs with AI models but I can’t say I completely agree with Google’s strategy here, one would think offering a good but free AI service backed by ad revenue would be the best commercial model. Trying to be top dog with the frontier models that can be replicated within a few months seem kinda dumb commercially speaking.
They have like a half trillion dollar backlog.
Yep I saw that. And they can’t add data centers fast enough, but still, it’s extremely costly and adds risk there.
Backlog can evaporate depending on circumstances. Stock will become more volatile as risk now increases.
What does the backlog consist of? Is it diversified ? I heard before it’s mostly Anthropic and of course their own service needs. They seem to serve a lot of big companies on their Gemini cloud so I think it’s in relatively a good position.
Of only there were a place to check your concerns. 
Even if they lost the entire Anthropic backlog, they’d survive. It’s a big company.
Also, the data center buildout is being addressed on the other end via efficiencies— despite being outpaced by growth demands.
I’m
More of a long term investor, so ymmv.
I’m trying to make money here…if they spending too much that’s hard. It’s not possible to understand their backlog cleaIy beyond a couple of customers , I looked for it.
My second biggest holding is Google so I better be concerned about it. Google would be better served by providing a great public AI service and not trying to compete with Anthropic /OpenAI, I hope they don’t get sucked into that.
Mistakes can be made, says the ibm holder.
I just saw that, biggest single drop in it’s history . Individual stock trading is not for the faint of heart , more and more I’m looking to load into indices.
Chatted with a friend on the current market, and if it isn’t time for a new TACO soon as gas prices in US is over 4 again, and the 30 years US treasury yield has crawled way over 5% again….
But as he put it, this Iran issue is a bit more complicated than past stupidities, as this time “it takes two to TACO” 
10 yr at almost 4.7%, that’s high alright. Yen is going to be creaking.
Yesterday Trump was going on about “biggest attack ever”, but the market thinks he is just talking bs, so oil prices dropped today
So what are you buying? . Or just bringing us up to speed?
Just fun, as the moron in the White House can be used to make some good money.
More generally on the AI downturn, I picked up some Google and MSFT in the dip, long term plays as the prices now looked too tempting for me to stay out. Still risky though in the short term
Buying more gold?
Around 4000 now…
Ooff. On different single days over the last few weeks hundreds of thousands have been margin called. If leveraged 3x you are already wiped out over the last month.
Taiwan stock market holding up a lot better but many young leveraged investors also nursing losses entering late in the game. Wife heard uni student son of friend already down 300k twd on borrowed money.
It’s funny how quantum stocks and crypto don’t get discussed when they are way down , which is when you want to discuss them as investment opportunities.
Both BTC and quantum offer strong DCA opportunities right now, from cyclical , moving averages and RSI perspectives. BTC and quantum tend to adhere to quite cyclical patterns, don’t see that changing myself.
I wish others on this thread would provide some insights like this which are actionable.
Remember folks it’s all about buying low selling high.
Let’s talk about software stocks.
They have been smashed up due to fears about replacement by AI created software.
Let’s look at that.
I use SAP concur for expenses. This has been slowly integrating AI into it’s workflow over the last three years or so. It went from being practically useless to somewhat useful but often with small mistakes to now accurately itemizing my hotel invoices instantly The last time I used it. That shocked me because I went in to itemise my expenses and voila, it was just done. 100%. Wtf this had never happened before. The software itself is regulated and trustworthy , integrated and licensed with other databases ,and now has gotten more useful. It’s only going to get better from here on out.
Why will a big organisation switch out of this now much more productive but proven software to a hacked together AI version of this with no guardrails , tech support , integration or licenses?
Answer, they won’t. Small company might, big company or the government, no flipping way.
Very bullish on big software names now. Once Service Now and Salesforce and Adobe and Microsoft and SAP get their act together and start properly implementing AI add ins and folks see the improvements in productivity…
Best of all they don’t suffer from massive capex requirement of the hyperscalers and throw off cash.
I’m thinking to do another 10% port into software names now. Welcome any pushback on this idea to check my thoughts.
Shit, we use concur as well. The AI shit is way worse than when they just integrated with the hotels and pulled direct so didn’t have to parse. That was 100%, vs now, my taxes and parking are always fucked.
Doing expenses is painful. Can’t do direct pull from many hotels in Asia , blockchain would be perfect for that too to match records. I need to provide paper receipts for everything, Taiwan 
.
Anyway, AI has started to help me . If it can read the different languages well and autocreate expenses from cash receipts maybe it can automate a lot of stuff for me . I haven’t actually tried that yet. I can imagine a future in 2032 where my robot prints out my paper receipts and then files them for me as paper returns by mailing at the post office with stamps it bought 
because my robot accountant who is a direct clone of my current accountant says ,‘according to Taiwan law…’
My biggest (current) complaint with concur’s hotel auto parse is not even that it’s not as accurate as it was before when it pulled line items (and receipts!) direct - it’s that the itemizations all come in with “travel allowance” unchecked. So even when it’s correct, I have to go into each line item and check it. It’s much faster to just delete the auto created itemizations and create it from scratch.