Global Recession?

Looks like Germany is currently or about to dip into recession. Some see is a sign of end times with a global recession on the rise. However, it is interesting to note that Germany has low unemployment and low national debt. And looking over some of the data, the auto industry is one of the only industries to see a considerable slowdown. But the auto industry is a huge part of the German economy. Switzerland also saw similar dips when Xi took power purging “corruption” (We all know it was a political purge) and the luxury watch industry took a hit.

What other trends do you guys see that says we are or are not heading into a possible global recession.

Chi-na looks pretty shaky right now and they account for a lot of demand worldwide.

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I don’t see any great bubbles or over leverage or systemic issues. Agree here with Steve Eismann.

Possibly not a crash but a Great Sag, as Dalio calls it. If anyone would know it’d be him.

Which is one reason I believe a trade deal will be coming soon. Trump nor Xi wants either countries to go into a recession. It’s a lose lose for everyone. Trump might lose the election…but Xi might lose everything.

PS. I put in an application and past the first stage of 5 stages for Deutschebank so hopefully things will bounce back lol.


You are not worried about US consumer debt? A possible red flag imo. But it’s partly due to confidence in the market.

US consumer is looking very good

I’m actually more worried about Europe as a whole. Italy just barely made it out of recession last quarter while still missing the target growth. I don’t see it improving with the new coalition already showing cracks and the new budget they came up with is shaky at best. Italy’s national debt is much bigger than Greece’s was. SO that is concerning.

Brexit is also a concern.

No doubt the black swan will come out of nowhere and surprise everyone. Could be tomorrow, could be 5 years from now.

5G could be a big profit driver. Others as well

We’ve had mini recessions in pockets of the world before. I don’t see a 2008 situation myself at the moment

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I think negative interest rates are going to create a big mess in the long run. Why the fuck should you pay the government to lend it your money. And banks are going to go bust because their margins depend on the difference in loan and savings rates, which is decreasing. No wonder Deutsche and some other European banks are zombies.


Germany has been in recession since April, mainly because of very little demand from China (as @Brianjones mentioned). China is Germany’s biggest trading partner and Germany is the biggest trading partner for the rest of Europe, so Europe is not looking good right now, especially the banks. But it will be a slow recession, no jump off the cliff one like 2008.

Singapore is almost in recession, Hong Kong is in a big fat recession. Partly because of the current turmoil but also because of no growth in China.

China has too many problems right now. Trump is tightening the access to USD (needed for all the coal and oil imports), the pork prices are through the roof (huge demand for dog meat right now) and capital flight is still a major issue.

US still looking good though.


Yeah me too. I just see a London 1666 .

I like Dalio’s comparison to the 1930s