OK people. Let’s hear your best guesses as to the price and future of the Gogoro.
My Predictions
Initial cost: NT$99,990
And
NT$100 to swap the two batteries OR
A monthly plan of NT$999 for up to 10 battery (pair) swaps.
I predict, Bangkok, HCM and Taipei will be the first cities to see Gogoro in any numbers, and they will have fewer than 499,000 in operation by the end of 2018.
The first Gogoro fatality will happen in New Taipei City on December 3rd, 2015 when a silent scooter gets crushed by a blue truck carrying eggs.
The first Gogoro accident involving two Gogoros will happen in Ho Chi Minh next to the market on November 27th, 2016.
By 2016 it will be clear that Gogoros made a mistake in not allowing people to recharge them at home.
I disagree with the general sentiment. This is the e-scooter model that will work. Home charging be damned.
The reasons that e-scooters suck
limited range - the range is always going to be limited. This has a very nice 100 km range but that is still a limitation and recharging a battery takes time. This system of replacement kiosks gives someone an unlimited range especially if the kiosks ended up in a FM, 7-11, CPC, or other large network.
getting stuck with the battery that needs to be replaced after X length of time. That is going to be a very costly part of owning an e-scooter. This company has eliminated a very significant argument against owning an e-scooter.
there are a lot of people in Taiwan that lived in apartments or other places with shared parking where significant infrastructure improvements (recharging stations) need to be installed. It’s not as simple as installing a few recharging stations for an apartment complex that can be shared. Each person that has an e-scooter needs their own station because I will be damned if I am going to move my scooter after it is done recharging so someone else can use it.
The issue here is that the early adopters are taking a big chance but this is the type of system that is needed to actually make e-scooters successful.
One interesting twist to this would be to make the battery system non-proprietary and sell it to other manufacturers. That would make this network (the most important thing) take off and could make or break the whole concept.
This will not be cheap. 100km/hr and 100km range (probably the best case though). It’s a high performance scooter and with an extensive network I could even replace my motorcycle with this. I like going for long rides all over Taiwan but it’s hard to go more than 100 kms without seeing a 7-11 and even if there aren’t 7-11’s it is very easy to install a kiosk in a semi popular mountain spot. That’s just not possible without the battery swapping.
I think the initial price might be abour 50K NT$. The most expensive part in an electric vehicle is usually the Li-ion battery pack (unless you’re talking about a luxury electric vehicle). By making the bike and the battery two separate entities, the company makes sure the price can be lower. Compare this case with Renault Twizy / Nissan NMC:
They lease the batteries (much bigger than the ones in the Gogoro scooter) by about 50€/month (2000 NT$). The cost of the car starts at a lower cost than the one a petrol car would have. We might expect something in that line for the Gogoro, since it will have a lot less parts (minus the battery and the material cost of the basic structure of the scooter, the electric motor has only two parts, the rotor and the stator, add an all-electrical circuit controller (an electrical board really quite cheap to produce if made in numbers), and you’re pretty much done. No need for gears, no need for injectors, much easier to assembly…
I’m going for 40K. Any more than that and people will simply choose a petrol scooter on the basis of cost.
[quote]NT$100 to swap the two batteries OR
A monthly plan of NT$999 for up to 10 battery (pair) swaps.[/quote]
I can’t find tech specs for the battery online, but judging from the size and motor performance I’m guessing it’s about 1kWh, ~500 cycles lifetime, and costs ~NT$15000. Recharge cost at today’s energy prices is therefore ~NT$35. Say NT$50 with a markup (this calculation, incidentally, demonstrates why I don’t like BEVs in general - they’re much, much more expensive to run than vehicles using a power feed from a third rail or catenary).
“Accident” as in, they’ll produce a little unwanted gogoro and abandon it behind a vegetable stall?
I disagree. Removing and recharging the battery pack - especially if you have to lug it up 4 flights of stairs - is one of the major reasons a lot of people can’t be arsed with them. In any case, they can’t do that without charging a LOT more money for the scooter. Maybe they’ll sell “unlocked” versions at a higher price, similar to cellphones?
First of all Taiwan buildings are not designed for rechargable vehicles, taking out and then shlepping the batteries up to your apartment is too difficult. If they can get most gas stations and MRT stations convenient stores as points to swap batteries it will possibly catch on. Also a good idea would be putting swap stations at highrise communities around Taiwan, supermarkets a la RT-Mart, Carrefour … and other places where people park their scooters.
I have a feeling it will suddenly not be “too difficult” when you see how much users have to pay for the recharge service.
It’ll be users paying for the batteries in circulation, the charging station infrastructure (US10,000 each x maybe 1,000 per city?), and on top of that paying to generate a profit for the company. It ain’t gonna be cheap
I have a feeling it will suddenly not be “too difficult” when you see how much users have to pay for the recharge service.
It’ll be users paying for the batteries in circulation, the charging station infrastructure (US10,000 each x maybe 1,000 per city?), and on top of that paying to generate a profit for the company. It ain’t gonna be cheap [/quote]
Carrying 2 9kg batteries up to my apartment several times/wk is a no doubt game over level of difficulty.
The 100NT swap that you mentioned is already in the ballpark of what it costs to operate a gas scooter (about 1NT per km in the city). If they beat that (say 75NT - 40ish NT profit above electricity cost) then it’s cheaper and the 2nd/3rd generation machines are likely better than a gas scooter without even taking into account the pollution benefits.
[quote=“Abacus”]
Carrying 2 9kg batteries up to my apartment several times/wk is a no doubt game over level of difficulty.
The 100NT swap that you mentioned is already in the ballpark of what it costs to operate a gas scooter (about 1NT per km in the city). If they beat that (say 75NT - 40ish NT profit above electricity cost) then it’s cheaper and the 2nd/3rd generation machines are likely better than a gas scooter without even taking into account the pollution benefits.[/quote]
Where did you get this with 9 kg per battery?
I think, it will be more like 5 or 6 kg. I build me one 30 AH 24 V battery with the Panasonic cell and it’s not 9 kg. I go about 90 to 110 km on a single charge.
60 miles are 96 km. It’s 82 km from Zhuangwei Township, Yilan County to Bali District, New Taipei City.
That’s cross-country in Taiwan.
The spec sheet says 94kgs gross weight and 112 kgs with 2 batteries. it doesn’t matter though I’m not carrying two 5-6 kg batteries up to my apartment multiple times/week either.
They also become cross country machines when every 7-11 or other outlet has a charging station. Aside from long mountainous stretches there wouldn’t be many places that you couldn’t go. Of course this is just the first generation. Later generations could have 3-4 batteries for longer range and more power.
True, Robotea. Taiwan can become a greener, more sustainability-focused nation through electric drive, with benefits for the environment, the economy, international image, and overall quality of life. This tech is not something to allow to be delayed. It’s on track to be in the public’s hands in newer forms this year. Best to be impatient and pro-active.
You could lease the whole vehicle. So, it’s never yours, so all problems of repair are up to the owner that leases it to you. Maintenance is done by the owner. You just sit back and drive and pay.
Sure. But my understanding from a quick scan of the above is that its not the bizniz model under discussion. I was attempting to articulate what I think might be a psychological barrier to market success.
Academic for me anyway, since, as a general proposition, the economics of buying or leasing new vehicles are unattractive, and the battery life of electric vehicles seems to make them of doubtful viablility as long term/2nd hand buys.
I’ve read somewhere that some owners of 1st gen Honda Insight hybrids don’t find battery replacement economic, so they run them as (rather underpowered) petrol-only cars. With a “pure” electric vehicle you don’t have that option.
Sure. But my understanding from a quick scan of the above is that its not the bizniz model under discussion. I was attempting to articulate what I think might be a psychological barrier to market success.
Academic for me anyway, since, as a general proposition, the economics of buying or leasing new vehicles are unattractive, and the battery life of electric vehicles seems to make them of doubtful viablility as long term/2nd hand buys.
I’ve read somewhere that some owners of 1st gen Honda Insight hybrids don’t find battery replacement economic, so they run them as (rather underpowered) petrol-only cars. With a “pure” electric vehicle you don’t have that option.[/quote]
That’s why it’s such a big benefit for the customer to own one specific battery. Singlehandedly the battery is the weakest link in the design of an electric vehicle. They lose storage capacity and ultimately fail. Guaranteeing the customer that they can continuously swap batteries takes a lot of the risk our of the equation. Customers next question is whether or not the charging network is there (a massive investment by the company) and ultimately is the company strong enough to not go under financially leaving them with a worthless scooter. I wouldn’t be an early adopter of this for sure but imo it is the model that can actually work.
Now if you have a private garage then you might as well buy an escooter than can be self charged. Of course you need to weigh the pros and cons of ultimately having to replace the battery yourself.
I think they’re taking a massive risk trying to install the charging centres all by themselves. That’s going to need a shitload of money, especially with Taipei’s property prices. And people are going to be queasy about trusting some startup that nobody’s ever heard of to be around in 10 years’ time. Hopefully some well-established company (7-11, say) will approach them and offer to deal with the charging side. They would, of course, take a large slice of the income, but I can’t see any other way of making it happen … and keep happening.
Interestingly the battery-rental model gives Gogoro a powerful incentive to build a quality product. They’ll only be able to offer bare-bones maintenance service until they’re making money, and they need those scooters to keep working reliably while they bring in cash flow from the battery charging side of the business. If people lose interest in their scooters, or if they break, the charging income will evaporate.
I can’t understand why anybody would want to own a battery. It’s about as useful as owning 40 tonnes of bananas: technically it’s worth something, but in reality it’s a liability.
That’s a possibility, but tech companies here are notoriously stuck in their ways. 90% of them are only interested in the export market, including companies involved in “green” tech. They’re all basically box-shifters, with no interest in big long-term projects.
It’s a pity the local gubmint doesn’t see an opportunity here to make a shitload of money, not to mention some excellent worldwide PR.
That’s a possibility, but tech companies here are notoriously stuck in their ways. 90% of them are only interested in the export market, including companies involved in “green” tech. They’re all basically box-shifters, with no interest in big long-term projects.
It’s a pity the local gubmint doesn’t see an opportunity here to make a shitload of money, not to mention some excellent worldwide PR.[/quote]
I think they’re taking a massive risk trying to install the charging centres all by themselves. That’s going to need a shitload of money, especially with Taipei’s property prices. And people are going to be queasy about trusting some startup that nobody’s ever heard of to be around in 10 years’ time. Hopefully some well-established company (7-11, say) will approach them and offer to deal with the charging side. They would, of course, take a large slice of the income, but I can’t see any other way of making it happen … and keep happening.
Interestingly the battery-rental model gives Gogoro a powerful incentive to build a quality product. They’ll only be able to offer bare-bones maintenance service until they’re making money, and they need those scooters to keep working reliably while they bring in cash flow from the battery charging side of the business. If people lose interest in their scooters, or if they break, the charging income will evaporate.
I can’t understand why anybody would want to own a battery. It’s about as useful as owning 40 tonnes of bananas: technically it’s worth something, but in reality it’s a liability.[/quote]
I would like to see the government signing on as a charging center partner to start the network. Put a charging center at government buildings, MRT stations, any youbike station. That validates the project and creates a spread out network immediately.
I think it would almost be beneficial to allow other manufacturers to build scooters (but not batteries or charging stations) using these batteries. That would go a long way to making the product a success.
