I know there’s been a lot of confusion on this point as well, with many assuming Hong Kong’ers were suffering under Beijing’s boot and desperately jealous of Taiwan’s indepedence. Not quite.
The writer makes a good point, as far as why 1C2S couldn’t apply to Taiwan. I don’t think you can put the genie back in the bottle, and I can’t imagine any scenario where Taiwan would give up her democratic institutions and accept the Basic Law as passed in Hong Kong. But I don’t think that represents a deal-breaker by any stretch of the imagination.
I’m very curious about those stats. I see them rolled out quite routinely and it’s always the same " a HK University poll," no mention of faculty, reason, methodology or anything else.
It might just be cctang, that therein may well lie the very real reason for Taiwan’s concerns, even the halls of academia cannot be trusted under China’s jackboot.
In any case, the people of HK are infamous for bending whichever way the wind blows. I really wouldn’t be surprised.
There has literally been a ton of media coverage about the background of this project. It’s greatest controversial moment came about 4-5 years back when a member of Tung Chee-hwa’s administration supposedly leaned on the university administration to force the poll-takers to tone down its survey. The public backlash eventually caused members of the university administration to resign while the survey became the darling of the democracy crowd. I guess this pre-dates your time in Hong Kong, but I doubt you can find anyone else in the territory that’s unfamiliar with the survey.
There’s no meaningful “political bias” in the survey; I for one believe it’s an accurate representation of Hong Kong opinions. Take a look at Hong Kong beliefs towards 6/4 (recorded consistently for the past 18 years); also seems to me to be a repudiation of the “Hong Kongers sway with the wind” logic.
Here’s a direct link to the survey project, with historical results (dating back more than a decade) and detailed methodology explanations in both English and Chinese:
I think that’s definitely one factor. You can see HK’ers confidence in the central government in Beijing growing dramatically since '97. After all the doom and gloom about the death of Hong Kong (complete with PLA soldiers executing capitalists + democracy activists in the streets by, say, August 1997)… their actual experience as a SAR is changing their perception of the Beijing government.
I’d also say that the perception of Taiwan has changed, in the last 6 years, from a “democratic Chinese state” to something else entirely. Hong Kongers might feel sympathy with a “democratic Chinese state” seeking to be independent from a Communist Chinese state… but there’s no reason they’d feel any sympathy for the creation of a non-Chinese nation on Taiwan. None at all.
[quote=“ac_dropout”]In 1994, only 46% of HK supported unification. Now it is 83%. I wonder what’s keystone events on HK caused the shift.
Or is the population on HK getting acclimated to SAR and cannot really sympathize with the “Taiwanese Struggle.”[/quote]
Yeah I’m sure none of that percentage includes the huge influx of mainlanders into HK.
Also 83% of HK’ers do NOT support Taiwan independence does not mean that 83% support Hong Kong’s reunification with China. Get your facts straight!
Hey on the bright side, if China takes over Taiwan, you can watch me get hanged or murdered fighting the superior Chinese forces. I’d definitely be wanted for my “seccesionist activites”.
[quote=“ShrimpCrackers”]
Yeah I’m sure none of that percentage includes the huge influx of mainlanders into HK.
[/quote]I wouldn’t say “none”, but the numbers are also well known, and it’s not significant from a statistical point of view.
[quote]Hey on the bright side, if China takes over Taiwan, you can watch me get hanged or murdered fighting the superior Chinese forces. I’d definitely be wanted for my “seccesionist activites”. [/quote]Doubtful, you’d be in New Jersey.
But if you were in Taiwan, you’d be just as safe as all of the other anti-Communist/anti-PRC folks still popular in Hong Kong. Like you yourself mentioned, up to 500k Hong Kong’ers march in protest of Beijing policies towards Tiananmen, democratisation, etc, etc.
Unlike Taiwan, the people from HK are all from the “Mainland” within only the pass few generations.
Hate to pop your delusion of self importance, but no one is hunting you down. Best look for another vehicle to make yourself famous.[/quote]
Delusions of self importance? Nono, I’ll play the lowly guy, generals do not rush headlong into battles. Only lowly soldiers and so on. But I’m not suicidal either so… go figure.
On the other hand, at least I’m important enough for you to make special posts about on other forums, so if I am a bother/or of value to anyone, its definitely you.
Anyway China’s threats to invade for the last 60 years haven’t come. I might die of old age before anything happens. Which would be great for Taiwan!!
Anyway I respect the views of the people of HK. However keep in mind this IS AN EDITORIAL. Editorials are subject to review.
And there’s also the number of HK illegals in the USA and abroad, those that moved elsewhere prior to 97, so yeah I did expect to see those numbers die down. When I visited HK in 95, most said they would get out of HK or hoped that something else could be done. One of my exes fled from HK.
You’re right, i don’t, but since I live in HK, work in a research capacity looking at China and routinely travel to the mainland proper, I’d argue that the differences are immense.
Well, let us not forget that all these people returning to HK now, almost none holds Chinese Passport.
When I met some people in Cebit this year from HK, and they were asking me why I wouldn’t move my company there, I simply told them that I don’t like much the city. Also, if I was moving somewhere from Taiwan, my first choice would be Macau. Then they asked me if I was feeling Chinese allready, which got a straight answer - no, impossible. Then I asked them - what about you? Their replies where kind of mixed, some say they are HK’ers, some say are Chinese. When I ask what the Chinese means, if that should also include all the other countries around who speak Chinese, they say yes.
What I believe, is that, no matter what, HK’ers where never really proud of belonging to the Empire. Their differrent society values and lack of democracy that was in HK was very big. Even if people had good standard of life, there was allways something missing. The first part disappeared with the integration in PRC (although I would imagine if PRC would impose simplified Chinese and Mandarin, things would be different). Basically, HK is part and it is not part of China. And for Taiwanese people it is easy to see - just remember what you need to do to go to China, or what you need to do to go to HK or Macau. Maybe in 40 years they will be completelly diluted and all will wear the same collors and flag (which I doubt, HK’ers) where allways proud people, and any big change in China stance will eventually lead to the flead of people and capital from there.
[quote=“Dr_Zoidberg”]
That begs the question: Has anyone openly criticized Beijing lately?[/quote]Wow. I guess Michael Turton’s blog isn’t very informative, if you can ask that question with a straight face.
Quick backgrounder: he’s a leftist throwback, of the Che Guevara variety. He’s a slacker who’s never had a real job, who lives in public provided housing, and who spent the majority of his adult life burning the PRC flag and protesting just about any symbol of the PRC government. He’s famous for his wild, often violent protests against authority. He marches every 6/4 (and often at other times) with a coffin, symbolizing the dead killed at Tiananmen.
He’s also an elected legislator in Hong Kong. He was also invited to visit Guangdong recently, where he repeatedly screamed out in public, calling for justice for 6/4. He was still invited to dinner with the Guangdong provincial governor, although they asked hiim to put a jacket over his t-shirt… which also called for justice for 6/4 and punishment for the butchers of Tiananmen.
Tell you what, I don’t ruin the surprise ending for you. Why don’t you go check with Michael Turton whether this guy’s disappeared yet. You might also look up names like Martin Lee, Emily Lau, and Joseph Zen as persistent, fierce, and long-time critics of anything associated with Beijing. Joseph Zen is as much of an anti-Communist as the former Pope.
It’s probably too much to hope that you can read Chinese (or you wouldn’t bother with the disguised cyber-toilet paper that passes for Turton’s blog). But if you could, you should certainly check out the Apple Daily, another bastion of the very popular anti-Communist/anti-Beijing press well represented in Hong Kong.
Obviously. Because, after all, these are people returning to Hong Kong from somewhere else. Isn’t that a pretty self-selective crowd you’re looking at?
There’s no advantage to holding a Hong Kong passport that I can think of. Many would prefer to keep their Canadian or British overseas passports; why wouldn’t they? It guarantees them safe haven in case of political upheavel, and it doesn’t cost them anything in terms of access to HK or the mainland.
And as far as the rest of your anecdotal stories about how the HK’ers you met feel about being Chinese… well, to put it mildly, I don’t trust you to be objective.
But I do trust the HKU POP, and here’s what they show:
Obviously. Because, after all, these are people returning to Hong Kong from somewhere else. Isn’t that a pretty self-selective crowd you’re looking at?
There’s no advantage to holding a Hong Kong passport that I can think of. Many would prefer to keep their Canadian or British overseas passports; why wouldn’t they? It guarantees them safe haven in case of political upheavel, and it doesn’t cost them anything in terms of access to HK or the mainland.
And as far as the rest of your anecdotal stories about how the HK’ers you met feel about being Chinese… well, to put it mildly, I don’t trust you to be objective.
But I do trust the HKU POP, and here’s what they show:
cctang, you really need to calm down. I can almost see that vein in your forehead throbbing to the point of bursting.
Thanks for the link, it was interesting to note that LKH has been arrested several times for expressing himself politically. Which brings us back to my original point: One cannot take seriously any what-do-you-think-of-the-government survey when the government routinely arrests people for criticizing it.
Please post any other informative links.
Oh, by the way, perhaps you can explain how a survey of the population’s ethnicity can result in negative percentages.
I might die of old age before anything happens. Which would be great for Taiwan!! 
