How China's military experts view potantial hot spots for conflict

According to Wikipedia, Liu Yazhou (劉亞洲) is a general of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in China, and the political commissar of the PLA National Defence University since September 2009. He is known for his hawkish views on the defence and strategic posture he believes China should adopt.

Liu has been making a lot of statements critical of the Chinese government and especially the military. For that has was censored on the internet many times within China. However, with Xi on the throne, that’s a thing of the past. Now Liu is the hottest general, heavily relied upon by Xi Jin-ping.

Most recently, he made a comment about it is wrong for the PLA and the Chinese government to use the Senkaku islands as a focal point of Sino-Japanese relations. He said the Japanese are probably correct when they said when tension flare up, the Japanese Self-Defence Navy could wipe out the entire East-sea fleet in 4 hours.

Liu pointed out that US and Japan have a secret program called Shackles aimed to contain the PLA navy. Japanese boats are equipped with satellite assisted radars named Dimsum that shows the position of every single Chinese vessels. The Japanese have well maintained fighters and are looking to acquire F-22s.

However, Liu’s even more worried about the corruption within the PLA. People have been buying military positions for years, and local troops carve out ways to make money based on what’s available to them. Many troops stationed on the boarders are known to smuggle drugs and weapons.

In Liu’s view, all contested boarders disputes are back by the US. Japan is backed by the US when it comes to the east sea disputes and the Senkaku. East Turkistan in his mind is also backed by the US. Liu also believes that the US backs Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea disputes. Last but not least, Taiwan is definitely back by the US.

Liu claims for the CCP to maintain an iron fist rule over China, it cannot afford to lose any of the conflicts. However, it’s a game that the US can’t lose. For the Americans, if Japan won out in the East Sea, the US wins. If an independent Taiwan gains full sovereignty recognition, the US wins. If East Turkistan successfully gains Independence, the US wins. So the Americans can afford to lose Taiwan, Japan, Turkistan or whichever proxy conflict. As long as it wins one of these conflicts, American will keep a foot hold in Asia, while CCP will struggle to keep China together.

Liu has to be a handful of Chinese generals that is pro-democracy. However, even him only sees China’s potential conflicts through the “Evil Americans out to get us” lenses. If the Americans don’t take that mentality seriously, the Chinese will be coming for them anyway, because it’s what’s drilled into their heads…