Ok folks, I am looking for a prediction. How long until this place becomes SAR? I actually want it to be SAR because of the attitudes of the local population. The “Taiwan this, Taiwan that” etc etc. These folk are so confused about how to run a country,have to much collective thinking, they might as well go back to the motherland. At least there would be only one inviolate China. But when will it happen? 5 years, 10 years? I am not getting any younger. I want it to happen soon, so the locals can 100% acknowledge they failed in creating Taiwan because they were so focused on money, food, iphones, shopping and taking pics of their food with said iphone.
Never.
You say these things like they’re unique to Taiwan; materialism is a worldwide affair. You’re not wrong about most of it, though it doesn’t take anything that drastic for people to wake up to the problems of their society and government. What do you think the Sunflower charge was all about?
The Taiwanese people will not accept a proposition of an SAR. If it’s forced on them, expect mass protests that would make Hong Kong’s Umbrella Revolution minuscule by comparison.
Even if such a thing happens, surely they could rouse themselves enough to think of some other name for it.
Never.
5 to 10 years. The agreements have been in place since the 1980s. We are just bidding our time. This is all common knowledge in Overseas communities, along the lines of the mafia killed Brice Lee because he gave the kung fu secrets to the whities.
Now seriously, I do believe Taiwan will fall in place as an SAR because China needs it and the world needs China. If to placate the dragon they must feed this little lizard, no problem. Taiwan’s economic clot is nothing compared to the all mighty yuan. You can quote politicians, you can quote treaties. The bottom line in geopolitics is follow the money. If China needs a distraction and gain in political capital, getting Taiwan under the fold is a mayor coup that can be played worldwide as a “peace breakthrough”. Moreover, people here cannot protest. A bunch of youths climbing walls? As soon as they announce the SAR, the same youths will be scrambling for the boats. Look at the current state of affairs: the one sthat can, get out, the one sin power have their children abroad. All China has to do is tighten the reins of the economy, people here won’t have the oxygen to protest and anyways, it won’t do any good. Has not done any good to Tibet or Uighur. The US cannot intervene, its hands are tied up. Whoever is ion office will get a lot of fallout but as in WWI and II, there will be a “peace” movement, “do not meddle in other people’s affairs”, etc… which we know big businesses will back.
In summary, it all depends on China and whenever they want to do it.
[quote=“Icon”]5 to 10 years. The agreements have been in place since the 1980s. We are just bidding our time. This is all common knowledge in Overseas communities, along the lines of the mafia killed Brice Lee because he gave the kung fu secrets to the whities.
Now seriously, I do believe Taiwan will fall in place as an SAR because China needs it and the world needs China. If to placate the dragon they must feed this little lizard, no problem. Taiwan’s economic clot is nothing compared to the all mighty yuan. You can quote politicians, you can quote treaties. The bottom line in geopolitics is follow the money. If China needs a distraction and gain in political capital, getting Taiwan under the fold is a mayor coup that can be played worldwide as a “peace breakthrough”. Moreover, people here cannot protest. A bunch of youths climbing walls? As soon as they announce the SAR, the same youths will be scrambling for the boats. Look at the current state of affairs: the one sthat can, get out, the one sin power have their children abroad. All China has to do is tighten the reins of the economy, people here won’t have the oxygen to protest and anyways, it won’t do any good. Has not done any good to Tibet or Uighur. The US cannot intervene, its hands are tied up. Whoever is ion office will get a lot of fallout but as in WWI and II, there will be a “peace” movement, “do not meddle in other people’s affairs”, etc… which we know big businesses will back.
In summary, it all depends on China and whenever they want to do it.[/quote]
Totally agree. The ball is in China’s court and their grasp on the ball is only going to get stronger as time progresses. I shake my head and snicker each time a blue or green politician makes the bold claim that Taiwan’s future will be determined by “23 million Taiwanese”. Do they really believe the words that are coming out of their mouths?
Got some to add to your list:
- Taiwanese were too busy taking cheap overseas flights via Shanghai and Guangzhou on Mainland Carriers
- Taiwanese were too busy getting rich in Mainland China
- Using a Taibaozheng instead of boycotting the PRC
- Denying No. 1, 2 and 3 and whining about independence whenever a Westerner is around
BTW, no one here has mentioned that starting next month, no Taibaozheng is necessary to travel to the Mainland… No riots, no questioning, no ripples…
Instead it’ll be a plastic card with much less resemblance to a passport than the original Taibaozheng. Entry/exit formalities will be more or less the same for Taiwanese and HK/Macau people. The DPP and TSU complained a little bit. No protests of any sort though. This is another example of how Taiwanese have long been reaping the benefits of being Chinese, while at the same time whine to Westerners about the evil commies in Beijing to get some benefits.
Instead it’ll be a plastic card with much less resemblance to a passport than the original Taibaozheng. Entry/exit formalities will be more or less the same for Taiwanese and HK/Macau people. The DPP and TSU complained a little bit. No protests of any sort though. This is another example of how Taiwanese have long been reaping the benefits of being Chinese, while at the same time whine to Westerners about the evil commies in Beijing to get some benefits.[/quote]
I hate to say it but I agree with you.
Here’s what everyone ignores in their predictions of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan in the near future: China is not run by a bunch of idiots. I do not for an instant believe that XJP and the other powerful leaders of that country don’t know what public opinion is in Taiwan. They must know that people will not accept being a part of China. That’s why they have played this waiting game for 60 years and will continue to play it.
Why hasn’t Taiwan achieved independence? Look at the surveys that ask if you want “immediate independence” or “immediate unification” with no third option – the trend is clear. China is obviously a large reason Taiwan remains in this ambiguous stage, but the real reason is that the vast majority of people on both sides of the spectrum there aren’t willing to have an intelligent, rational, sane discussion over Taiwan’s status. Without discussion, domestic consensus is impossible. Without consensus, change is impossible.
Taiwan is on the tip of a knife and has been for probably 20 years. If it tilts either way suddenly, it will be split in two on the blade. What this country needs more than better traffic enforcement and more than decent pizza and more than international perspectives is open and frank discussion; a sense of cooperation rather than competition between blues and greens; to enfranchise the vulnerable and impoverished who hear about cross-strait relations and think “that’s someone else’s problem; my concern is making it through next month.”
I still have to see massive benefits -as in for most people, not just a few. I do not see the “advantage” of being Chinese, rather speaking the same language and being next door. First of all, being Chinese is debatable. Cultural? Racial? Economic terms? Taiwanese students are treated as foreign whenever their Mainland universities feel so, but local if advantageous to the university, for example. Same in business, especially banking, so what gives? Priority in getting there because Taiwan got there first? They were the most loyal after the world turned its back on China after Tiannamen.
Maybe people realize there is no point complaining when decisions are taken unilaterally and/or behind closed doors?
This guys has a point regarding Taiwan’s China conundrum:
Loose translation: Japan took what it could use from Chinese culture and built its own, Korea did the same. Taiwan… became “feverish”.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]
Taiwan is on the tip of a knife and has been for probably 20 years. If it tilts either way suddenly, it will be split in two on the blade. What this country needs more than better traffic enforcement and more than decent pizza and more than international perspectives is open and frank discussion; a sense of cooperation rather than competition between blues and greens; to enfranchise the vulnerable and impoverished who hear about cross-strait relations and think “that’s someone else’s problem; my concern is making it through next month.”[/quote]
Pizza problem solved ten years ago.
Traffic problem still big BIG problem
Taiwan needs international perspective badly
Forget about China, business as usual. focus on rest of world, focus on themselves too, quality of life, salary, work environment, nature, equality, and so on
[quote=“BlownWideOpen”][quote=“Hokwongwei”]
Taiwan is on the tip of a knife and has been for probably 20 years. If it tilts either way suddenly, it will be split in two on the blade. What this country needs more than better traffic enforcement and more than decent pizza and more than international perspectives is open and frank discussion; a sense of cooperation rather than competition between blues and greens; to enfranchise the vulnerable and impoverished who hear about cross-strait relations and think “that’s someone else’s problem; my concern is making it through next month.”[/quote]
Pizza problem solved ten years ago.
Traffic problem still big BIG problem
Taiwan needs international perspective badly
Forget about China, business as usual. focus on rest of world, focus on themselves too, quality of life, salary, work environment, nature, equality, and so on[/quote]
台灣-別想了太多。 Should be the motto here.
Wake up Taiwanese people. Look at Hong Kong.
That would require taking the collective head out of the sand.
That would require taking the collective head out of the sand.[/quote]
Was madness reading comments in Taiwan regarding Hong Kong. ‘This is nothing to do with us, Hong Kong has already returned, Taiwan is a democracy’.
Infuriating , that people cant join up the dots or even see a reflection of themselves.
Tsai, while campaigning for president in 2012 threw out the word “Taiwan consensus”. Its one of the few issues I can agree with Tsai in that Taiwan desperately need to have a consensus. Its too bad Tsai was just throwing the idea out there without articulating her plan on how to create such a consensus. And to my knowledge, during the past 3 years, she hasn’t made any efforts to promote this idea anymore.
Her almost certain victory will be really fascinating. This is a candidate who has never been elected to public office despite two previous attempts at it and was beaten in her last presidential bid because of a lack of clear policy ideas. Her second time around, the policy proposals are still not forthcoming, hence the nickname 空心菜.
Her almost certain victory will be really fascinating…[/quote]
Fascinating for you, a cause of concern for others.
Her almost certain victory will be really fascinating…[/quote]
Fascinating for you, a cause of concern for others.[/quote]
Chen Shui Bian became President in 2000 and was a beacon of hope for Taiwan, and alas his 8 year rule ended pretty poorly. Ma became President in 2008 and was a beacon of hope for Taiwan, and alas his 8 year reign is ending pretty poorly. Perhaps we can say something like “Tsai English became President in 2016 and was a shining ray of hope for the future of Taiwan, and alas her 4/8 year reign is ending pretty poorly”? I guess we have at least 4 years (if not 8) to see.