"Hsieh urges calm after Merrill Lynch report on election"

taipeitimes.com/News/front/a … 2003282174

Whoa, this is really important news for the upcoming elections. Can someone find the China Times and/or Merrill Lynch article this story is referring to?

If true, this is the kind of announcement that can swing the elections.

People are paying a lot of attention to this Saturday’s election - check ouf FT’s article.

news.ft.com/cms/s/aeb12bf0-6132- … e2340.html

Don’t double post philbert

And don’t back seat moderate bluegreen. :slight_smile:

Well, that’s assumes that DPP stands for racial politics and national identity and KMT stands for economic development and progress.

True or false?

All I know is that the noise factor here has gone up a couple of notches with the Green folks lighting up firecrackers up and down Zhonghe Road here last night along with the usual blaring and music.

[quote=“Yellow Cartman”] KMT stands for economic development and progress.
.[/quote]

In their minds yes, I guess so.

So what do the New Party and TSU stand for?

HAHAHAHAHA! Er, guys, EVERYBODY knows this and EVERYBODY in the industry has been saying this since long before the last presidential elections. KMT wins, stockmarket goes up; DPP wins, stockmarket tanks. It’s easy to remember because the KMT colour is also red, and red means a rise in prices, whereas the DPP are green, which indicates a fall. I took a photo of the trading screens the day Chen Shui-bian won the presidency and it was a sea of green. For three days.

What Frank meant to do was tell himself not to panic!

Investors have been doing bugger all for weeks. The locals that is. On the other hand, foreigners have been net buyers every day for the last month, at least.

It’ll be fun. We all know how it’s going to work whatever way Taipei County goes and it will be a race to see who can get in or out of the market the quickest on Monday. Or maybe not. Could the market stay long even with a DPP win? That is the big question. I reckon it might because Ma is going to win in 2008 ( :wink: ), and a DPP mayor remaining in Taipei County isn’t going to change that. No, I reckon the QFIIs are right, and it’s best to be long at the moment. But maybe…

Jesus. I’ve just read the rest of that TT article. :astonished:

During an acid trip, more like. This can’t be the real quote. :noway:

The best example of this was during the missile tests in '96. The locals were selling off in droves, while the foreigners were all busy buying in. It’s almost a law of the Taiwan securities market now - when it comes to political influences upon investment, local and foreign portfolio decisions are nearly opposite. But why? Do the locals know something we don’t? Or vice versa?

The best example of this was during the missile tests in '96. The locals were selling off in droves, while the foreigners were all busy buying in. It’s almost a law of the Taiwan securities market now - when it comes to political influences upon investment, local and foreign portfolio decisions are nearly opposite. But why? Do the locals know something we don’t? Or vice versa?[/quote]

It’s a strange one. The locals watching the foreigners watching the locals. Of course sometimes hard to tell how much of the turnover included in the “foreigner” statistics is Taiwanese money routed via offshore accounts…

OK - and why is that for LOCAL elections?
Why would CSB or any DPP legislators (or their Blue counterparts) alter their position on cross-strait relations one iota based on the political affiliations of Ilan County council members? What power has the Taichung mayor to influence negotiations with the CCP?

Local elections are about local politics. The economy of Taiwan will not be affected at all by the party loyalties of those elected, but it may be affected by the basic competence of those elected (which is pretty unrelated to their position vis-a-vis China).

The only possible logic is that this can be taken as a ‘popularity test’ for the current government, but it’s a pretty damn poor guide for that given that: a) only 80% of the country is having an election, b) people might actually vote (as they should) for the best candidate, not for a party c) turnout will likely be much lower than a legislative/presidential election
d) local elections in most countries are often seen as protest votes against the incumbent government (nomatter how good/bad they are) thus skewing the results, and most importantly e) meaningful elections (in terms of national elections) are 2 years off - and a lot can change in that time.

I know all the politicians have been hyping this up as a Blue vs. Green deathmatch, and of course all the media have done the same (local and international) - but that’s just because the politicians think campaigning on the strength of their policies won’t work, and the media are clueless. Everyone did exactly the same before the National Assembly elections earlier this year: “These elections are a vital vote of (no) confidence for the DPP/KMT”, and it was BS then too.

Local elections affect who will implement that new one-way system in Hualien, they don’t affect the national economy.

So what’s the news on the market? Up, down, sideways?

Well the market took some cheer, but david is right that this does not necessarily mean the KMT are going to win the 2007 Leg elections of the 2008 Pres election. It did mean Ma Yingjiu didn’t resign.

A lot of what goes on in terms of stockmarket reaction is second-guessing and self-fulfilling prophesy. If everyone assumes the market will go up, it will go up. The long term effects are quite uncertain, and the market’s reaction was more of a sigh of relief “Thank God we don’t have to worry about a political crisis until 2007!”