The pan-blue alliance won big in the Hualian by-election, taking over 50 percent of the vote in what was essentially a three-man race.
Does this mean that the KMT and PFP are going to be able to keep it together long enough to come out on top next March? Or do we have to wait for the real mudslinging to begin to see what happens? (Surely Lee Teng-hui &c. have some good dirt on Lien Chan that’s due to come out in the next few months.)
How much face did the DPP lose? The party brought in its big guns but still lost, and not by a little.
It also doesn’t say much for the DPP pollsters.
Is the DPP toast, or was this election too indivual to count on the national scale?
I think the election is too individual to count. Hualien is a KMT stronghold and for it to get only around 50% is an abomination(sp?). The DPP gave this election away choosing a candidate who lost 3 times previously. No one likes a loser unless your name is Lincoln.
I think the big guns are being held back for the presidential election. Hualian is not a proxy for anything except for Lien Chan and James Soong running seperately and this only shows how it would play out in Hualian.
I’ll be waiting for December to see how it all plays out in regards to the presidential election. I know it’ll be nasty and brutal. If Lee Tenghui comes out and starts spreading dirt, than it will get really interesting. I’m sure a fair bit of horse trading is being done by both the KMT and DPP to get Lee to do what they want to do.
I don’t think anything that Lee Teng-hui could say would make all that much of a difference. For starters, everyone knows about the corruption of the KMT in past years, and I think people now are more concerned with their ability to improve the economy and their lives in general. While Chen Shui-bian is slightly “cleaner” than his rivals in the KMT-PFP, he’s quite simply incompetent. He doesn’t know how to pick the right people to do the jobs. For all of the corruption and alleged terror of James Soong, he has some talented people in his group and knows how to use them. So, it might end up being a trade off in the end … a more competent (albeit more corrupt) administration as opposed to an incompetent (less corrupt) administration. But, when it comes down to it, they’re all corrupt. However, Chinese politics and politicians have always been that way, so what’re ya gonna do … sigh
Back to the “political dirt” that Lee could bring out again … I’m sure the KMT and PFP also have their fair share of information they could bring out on the “Father of Taiwan” … I have zero respect or admiration for Lee Teng-hui, and he’s just as corrupt as anyone in the KMT or PFP. He’s interested in one thing and one thing only … Lee Teng-hui … it sure as hell isn’t Taiwan.
Too bad Li Ao isn’t planning on running again … not sure if he’d make a good president, but at least he’s fun …
You said it. The vast majority of Taiwanese I’ve talked to said they hate A-Bian because the value of the stock market is so low. Of course, that’s rubbish… the market would have slid off of it’s dot.com highs regardless of which yahoo got elected. No one seems to care about creating policies that reduce corruption, give people more economic freedom, create a more rule-of-law-based society, etc. Considering all the talk about Chinese having such great traditional values that sustain society and create growth (Lee Kuan-yew of Singapore was the biggest braggard of them all), insatiable greed must be a traditional value.
I fear Hualian is a sign of things to come, despite the polls that show A-Bian with a slight lead. Only the die-hard ‘Ben-sheng ren’ Taiwanese in the South will vote for A-Bian. The rest will check the value of their stocks the day of the election, remember how much money they’ve lost, and vote for those inept SOBs Chan and Soong (the latter of which owns 5 houses in California and will flee there if China ever attacks ).
[quote=“WarMonkey”]
I fear Hualian is a sign of things to come, despite the polls that show A-Bian with a slight lead. Only the die-hard ‘Ben-sheng ren’ Taiwanese in the South will vote for A-Bian. The rest will check the value of their stocks the day of the election, remember how much money they’ve lost, and vote for those inept SOBs Chan and Soong (the latter of which owns 5 houses in California and will flee there if China ever attacks ).[/quote]
Why would China attack if Lien and Soong win? They are going to give Beijing what they want, Taiwan on a silver platter.
Good point. I guess Soong will flee only if/when the DPP declare independence or get around to having a referendum on independence… which may push China to do something rash. Soong will kiss Beijing’s a$$ to get more opportunity for Taiwanese business on the Mainland if he and Chan win.
One thing I would add is the situation in Hong Kong.
If China avoids sending in the troops to quiet things down and works with the protesters or defangs them. It will be an easy KMT win.
However, if China calls in the troops to put down further protests and rams through a basic security law, then it’ll be an easy DPP win.
Soong, in the great tradition of Chinese leaders with more to gain than lose by doing the evil thing, will have Lien Chan assassinated/incapacitated and sell the country to China. Then he only needs to use his son’s US citizenship to be able to live in the US. This is the most likely scenario I see.
You’re probably right LittleBuddhaTW. People do vote with their pocketbooks and almost all the politicians from the KMT abd PFP are corrupt, not that the vast majority of DPP members aren’t.
Speaking of the protests in HK, were there any ‘support protests’ here in Taiwan to show that Taiwanese sympathize with the HKers and share their fear of an oppressive government gone mad?
DPP deserves defeat in the Hualian election. Campaign strategy and tactics suck. Tried to “buy voters” by giving out unnecessary and unfair social welfare baits, but instead, failed to attract fundamental blue-camp supporters, disappointed fundamental green-camp supporters, and disgusted swing voters. Couldn’t give effective counterstrokes on criticism from rivals. The principal axis of election campaign was blurred and messed up. Chen won the presidential election by resorting to “ruling party rotation” a few years ago after KMT’s long lousy rein, and this time in this by-election, the first lady still used the same old phrase in Hualian, without knowing what Hualian ren really want. Sigh!!
But on the other hand, this is a good blow for DPP ahead of the “Armageddon” next March as the party has been a bit too self-complacent and lost it. This setback also gives DPP a good warning that a KMP-PFP alliance is a solid one that can’t be belittled. Chen still has a chance, but like the reasons other posters have mentioned, it will be a tough battle for Chen.
What makes these debates great (and useless!) is that there are so many factors that could swing the election: Whether Soong and Chan can avoid stabbing each other in the back, Lee Tenghui’s dirt on the pan-Blues, China’s reaction to the campaign, whether A-bian can sit on his hands and not do something that he thinks will help the economy (but will only make it worse), identity politics, the stock market, Chen’s running mate, and on and on. One thing I’d say, though, is that I’ve recently heard a lot of people minimize the potential impact of Lee Teng-hui because all of the dirt is already out. The dirt may (or may not) be spread, but that doesn’t mean that Lee can’t try and drag Soong / Chan through it again, with all the media attention that would bring. As long as Chen stays out of the fight, he would stand to gain, and every little point helps.
[quote=“Okami”]One thing I would add is the situation in Hong Kong.
If China avoids sending in the troops to quiet things down and works with the protesters or defangs them. It will be an easy KMT win.
[/quote]
Doesn’t necessarily have to be Hong Kong. China has a record of pulling stupid stunts in the run-up to Taiwanese elections. What makes you think they have changed? They will do something stupid, the people of Taiwan will come out of their funk and vote in the DPP once again.
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